College Football Picks 10/3 – Notre Dame / North Carolina

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

Week 5 of the 2026 College Football season continues this afternoon with the undefeated and third-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-0) visiting the North Carolina Tar Heels (2-1) at Kenan Stadium on ESPN. The schools are meeting for the first time since Week 4 of the 2022 season when Notre Dame knocked off North Carolina 45-32 on the road. Notre Dame is 21-2 all-time against North Carolina dating back to 1949.

Notre Dame is a 21.5-point favorite and the total is 46.5.

WHAT BOTH TEAMS DID IN THEIR PREVIOUS GAME

Notre Dame pummeled in-state rival Purdue 49-10 on the road last Saturday to improve to 4-0. Star quarterback CJ Carr threw for 3 touchdowns and rushed for another score in the rout. Standout linebacker Drayk Bowen scored his first career touchdown on a 15-yard fumble return. Running back Aneyas Williams rushed for 80 yards on 14 carries and scored a touchdown for the Irish. 

The Notre Dame defense held Purdue’s high-scoring offense to just 218 yards and 10 points — Purdue scored their only touchdown with just 6 seconds left in the game. Purdue had scored at least 36 points in each of their first 3 games of the year. 

Notre Dame has won 14 games in a row, and will enter October with an undefeated record for the first time since 2021. 

North Carolina had a bye last week after losing at Clemson 28-20 on Sept. 19. It was their first loss of the season. The Tar Heels held a 14-point lead (17-3) midway through the second quarter and led 17-6 at halftime, before Clemson rallied to win.

The game was delayed for 2 1/2 hours in the fourth quarter (lightning in the area) with North Carolina leading 17-15 with 8:11 remaining and having 1st and goal at the Clemson 7-yard line. When the game resumed, Clemson held North Carolina to a field goal and took over from there, scoring the final 13 points of the game.  

Redshirt junior running back Benjamin Hall rushed for 130 yards on 18 carries and scored a receiving touchdown for North Carolina. Sophomore running back Demon June carried the ball 12 times for 57 yards and added a rushing touchdown. North Carolina was unable to get their passing attack on track against Clemson as quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. completed less than half of his passes (13-for-30) and threw for 135 yards with a touchdown and interception. 

GAME STORYLINES: NOTRE DAME

The last two seasons has seen the Notre Dame Fighting Irish enter the season highly ranked, and then suffer inexplicable early-season losses that put their chances of making the BCS playoffs in jeopardy. In 2024, No. 5 Notre Dame lost 16-14 to Northern Illinois at home in Week 2. The Irish were a 28-point favorite against Northern Illinois. The Irish went on to win their final 10 regular season games and made the 2024-25 College Football Playoffs as the 7th seed where they advanced to the Championship game. 

Last year, Notre Dame entered the season ranked 6th in the nation, but lost their first two games of the year by narrow margins against No. 10 Miami (27-24) and No. 16 Texas A&M (41-40). Notre Dame went on to win their final 10 games in dominant fashion, but were left out of the College Football Playoffs. Notre Dame being an independent and not belonging to a conference likely played a role in why they were left out of the College Football Playoffs last year. 

After being plagued by three early-season losses to lower-ranked/unranked teams in 2024 and 2025, it was imperative that Notre Dame get off to a fast start in 2026 and they’ve done that. Notre Dame is 4-0 and has obliterated their first four opponents, outscoring them by a combined score of 169-33. Their closest game was a 27-10 victory against Michigan State at home.

The return of redshirt sophomore quarterback CJ Carr is a big reason why Notre Dame entered the season with enormous expectations — the Irish had the second-best odds (+600) to win the BCS Championship behind Ohio State (+550). Carr won the starting quarterback job last year as a redshirt freshman and was magnificent, throwing for 2,741 yards with 24 touchdowns to 6 interceptions on 66.6 percent completions in 12 games.

CJ Carr’s sensational 2025 campaign led to him being the favorite to win the 2026 Heisman Trophy at (+750). Carr is off to a great start as he’s passed for 963 yards with 9 touchdowns to 1 interception on 70.5 percent completions through 4 games on the season. He’s also rushed for 2 touchdowns. If Carr wins the Heisman, he’d be the first Notre Dame player to capture the award since Tim Brown in 1987. 

The foursome of running backs Aneyas Williams (team-leading 224 rushing yards and 4 rushing TDs this yr) and Nolan James Jr. (197 rushing yards, 81 receiving yards, 5 total TDs), along with wideouts Michah Gilbert (team-leading 334 receiving yards, 2 TDs) and Jordan Faison (239 receiving yards, 2 TDs) are the standouts in Notre Dame’s versatile offense where a multitude of players are capable of notching big games. All four players were recruited to and then developed at Notre Dame which is rare nowadays with the proliferation of transfers. 

On defense, Notre Dame returns several big-time players who were exceptional for a unit that gave up 17.6 ppg in 2025. Superstar cornerback Leonard Moore is the most decorated returnee. The 6-foot-2 Texas product was a finalist for the Bronco Nagurski and Jim Thorpe Awards last season and is considered the best cover corner in FBS. Moore is expected to be a top-five pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. 

The outstanding returning senior trio of defensive end Boubacar Traore, linebackers Drayke Bowen and Jaiden Ausberry, along with emerging juniors Bryce Young (team-leading 3 sacks, 10 solo tackles this yr) and Loghan Thomas (2 sacks) are also key contributors to a Notre Dame defense that will likely be even better than last year’s dominant unit. 

GAME STORYLINES: NORTH CAROLINA

On December 11, 2024, the North Carolina Tar Heels shocked the sports world when they hired the incomparable Bill Belichick as its head coach. The then-72-year-old Belichick established himself as arguably the greatest NFL coach of all time when he won 6 Super Bowls as a head coach of the New England Patriots and 2 more as a defensive coordinator for the New York Giants. Belichick’s hiring was surprising because many believed he desired another NFL head coaching job, not a college job.

The hiring of Bill Belichick brought a tremendous amount of expectations for North Carolina due to his exemplary coaching resume in the NFL. Belichick’s staff included his two sons Stephen and Brian, along with longtime NFL executive Mike Lombardi.

Unfortunately, the hoopla and hysteria of Bill Belichick being North Carolina’s head coach quickly vanished when North Carolina suffered an embarrassing 48-14 to TCU at home in his first game as head coach on Sept. 1, 2025. North Carolina would go on finish with a dismal 4-8 record in Belichick’s debut season. 

The 72-year-old Bill Belichick dating 24-year-old Jordon Hudson — a former college cheerleader and beauty pageant contestant — who reportedly meddled in the everyday activities of the football program also added to the misery of the 2025 season as it created negative headlines throughout the year. 

It appeared as if the problems of the 2025 season were gone as the Tar Heels began the 2026 campaign with a 15-10 upset victory over TCU in Dublin, Ireland on Aug. 29. But over the next two weeks, the North Carolina would be rocked with more scandal as General Manager Michael Lombardi (Sept. 3), followed by newly-minted defensive coordinator Steve Belichick — the son of head coach Bill Belichick — (Sept. 17) both resigned from their positions for undisclosed reasons. 

With Michael Lombardi and Steve Belichick officially gone, North Carolina looks as if they can navigate through the rest of the 2026 campaign without a lot of outside distraction. 

North Carolina hit the transfer portal for a second straight year to retool after last season’s disappointing 4-8 finish. They plucked senior quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. from the portal. North Carolina will be the fourth school for the well-traveled Edwards, who started out at Wake Forest (2021), then spent 3 years at Maryland (2022-2024) before heading to Wisconsin last year.

Billy Edwards’ previous five seasons in college were marred by injuries and inconsistent play. Despite entering the 2025 campaign as Wisconsin’s starting quarterback, Edwards played sparingly in just 2 games due to sustaining a knee injury in the season opener that kept him out for 2 weeks, and then suffering a season-ending knee injury in the opening moments of his return in Week 4.

In 2024, Billy Edwards Jr. passed for 2,881 yards with 15 touchdowns to 9 interceptions on 65 percent completions and rushed for 5 touchdowns in the one season where he played a full allotment of games with Maryland. Through 3 games with North Carolina, Billy Edwards Jr. has passed for 611 yards with 3 touchdowns to 1 interception on 56.4 percent completions. 

Returning running backs Benjamin Hall (215 rushing yards, 42 receiving yards, 2 receiving 2 TDs this yr) and Demon June (115 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs) are emerging as a formidable duo out of the backfield for the Tar Heels this season. Ohio State transfer tight end Jelani Thurman (11 catches for 183 yards, 1 TD) is off to a good start with North Carolina, and could end up as the top receiving option for Billy Edwards Jr. this year.  

North Carolina’s defense was perhaps the only redeeming part of the program on and off the field last season. This is not surprising considering head coach Bill Belichick’s 49-year (1975-2023) coaching tenure in the NFL where he earned the reputation of being a defensive mastermind.

The Tar Heels did lose two productive starters to the transfer portal in defensive lineman Tyler Thompson (Louisville) and defensive back Khmori House (Arkansas) in the offseason, but still look pretty stout through the first 3 games. 

The pristine play of returning sophomore defensive lineman Xavier Lewis is a big reason why North Carolina’s defense looks strong through 3 games. Lewis has come out of nowhere and is performing at an elite level. The North Carolina native has amassed 6 sacks and 17 tackles through 3 games. If Lewis can get 11 more sacks, he’ll break the school record held by NFL Hall of Famer Lawrence Taylor — who totaled 16 sacks in 1980. Taylor also starred for the famed 1980’s New York Giant defenses that were coached by Bill Belichick, who was the defensive coordinator.

THE PICK: NORTH CAROLINA (+21.5)

Notre Dame appears to be steamrolling their way towards an undefeated season and a deep run in the 2026-27 College Football Playoffs, but I think they will get a bit of a test today in Chapel Hill. Bill Belichick looks to have fully implemen

Join Wannamakeabet.com today.  Join our monthly “All Sports” Betting League Championship today where you bet points instead of real money on all the major pro sports (NFL, College Football, NBA, NHL, MLB).  We’ll put you into a league and give you a bankroll of 50,000 points so you can bet on every game on the board.  And you get 50,000 more points every week.  Whomever has the most points at the end of the league is the winner and wins real cash based on how many players join!  Join today, it’s free!

ted his renowned defensive schemes at North Carolina in year two at the helm. Take the Big Points…Notre Dame 30, North Carolina 17

 

Leave a Reply