College Football Picks 9/25 – Northwestern @ Indiana

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

Week 4 of the 2026 College Football season continues tonight with a pair of undefeated teams squaring off as the Northwestern Wildcats (2-0) visit the defending National Champion and fifth-ranked Indiana Hoosiers (3-0) at Memorial Stadium on Fox. Tonight’s contest will be the Big Ten Conference opener for both teams. The schools last met in 2024 when Indiana went on the road and knocked off Northwestern 41-24. The Hoosiers pounded Northwestern 34-3 when the teams last played in Indiana during the 2019 season. 

Indiana is a 21-point favorite and the total is 49.5.

WHAT BOTH TEAMS DID IN WEEK 3

Northwestern pummeled the visiting Colorado Buffaloes 41-7 last Saturday night in what was supposed to be an early-season test for the Wildcats. But the Wildcats thoroughly dominated the careless and boisterous Buffaloes from start to finish. Northwestern led 21-0 at halftime mainly due to Colorado’s three costly first-half turnovers — two fumbles and an interception — that directly resulted in two touchdown drives for Northwestern. 

Northwestern senior quarterback Aidan Chiles was magnificent in the 41-7 victory, completing 17 of 22 passes for 241 yards with 3 touchdown passes and no interceptions. Chiles also rushed for 2 touchdowns. All three of Chiles’ touchdown passes went to senior running back Joseph Himon III. Each of Himon’s 3 receptions (for 46 yards) were touchdown catches. Himon rushed for 28 yards on 4 carries.

Indiana shut out Western Kentucky 38-0 at home last Saturday to improve to 3-0. It was Indiana’s second straight shutout — they blanked Howard 55-0 in Week 2 on Sep.12 — and third straight dominant victory against lesser opponents. The Hoosiers opened the season with a 52-16 win against North Texas. Tonight’s game will be Indiana’s first true test of the season.

Despite the lopsided final margin of victory (38-0), Indiana got off to a sluggish start against Western Kentucky. Neither team scored in the first quarter and IU led 14-0 at halftime. The Hoosiers were a 44.5-point favorite entering the game.

Hoosier senior quarterback Josh Hoover completed 18 of 24 passes for 272 and three touchdowns. Junior running back Turbo Richard rushed for a team-high 149 yards on 15 carries and scored a touchdown. Junior wideout Charlie Becker added 5 catches for 127 yards and a touchdown.

 

GAME STORYLINES: NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS

Northwestern football enters the 2026 season with heightened expectations and fanfare due to the opening of their $862 million renovated Ryan Field. They began construction on Ryan Field in 2024 and the state-of-the-art stadium will officially open on Oct. 2 when Northwestern hosts Penn State. 

Head coach David Braun’s success over his first three seasons is also a big reason for optimism for Northwestern football. He’s led the Wildcats to 2 winning seasons in his 3 years at the school, and is 19-19 overall. The Wildcats were a woeful 1-11 in the season prior to Braun’s arrival.

David Braun also hired the highly accomplished Chip Kelly as his offensive coordinator. Kelly’s notable accolades include head coaching stints with the NFL’s Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers, along with college coaching stints at Oregon and UCLA. 

Heading into the season, Northwestern’s biggest concern was replacing starting quarterback Preston Stone (2,400 passing yards, 17 TD’s to 12 INT’s last yr) who graduated. Michigan State transfer Aidan Chiles emerged as the starting quarterback. Chiles arrived in Evanston with plenty of hype after spending his first 3 college seasons at Oregon State (2023) and Michigan State (2024-2025). Chiles compiled an impressive three-year career prior to joining Northwestern, throwing for 27 touchdowns to 14 interceptions, while rushing for 12 touchdowns with Oregon and Michigan State from 2023-2025.

Aidan Chiles has gotten off to an excellent start with Northwestern. He’s passed for 514 yards with 4 touchdowns and no interceptions on 67.4 percent completions, while rushing for three touchdowns. Chiles was named the Big 10 Offensive Player of the Week after Northwestern’s 41-7 trashing of Colorado last week. He’s accounted for 7 touchdowns and no turnovers so far on the young season.

A pair of veteran holdovers in versatile senior running back Joseph Himon II (115 rushing yards, 61 receiving yards, 4 TD’s in 2026) and senior wideout Griffin Wilde (8 catches for 189 yards) are trending towards being the top weapons for Aidan Chiles in Northwestern’s offense. Himon is in his fifth year with Northwestern and could be in line for a big senior season after last week’s breakout performance against Colorado. 

GAME STORYLINES: INDIANA HOOSIERS

Last year, the Indiana Hoosiers completed one of the most remarkable seasons of all time when they registered the first 16-0 record in college football history and won the 2025-26 BCS National Championship. Going undefeated and winning a national championship was quite the feat for Indiana when you consider that the school and the state is renowned for being basketball-centric.

Head coach Curt Cignetti became an overnight celebrity/sensation last year after leading the Hoosiers to a 16-0 mark and the school’s first National Championship in just his second season at IU. Cignetti is 27-2 overall in his 2 seasons at the helm for the Hoosiers. Last year’s astronomical success was led by superstar quarterback Fernando Mendoza (3,535 passing yards, 41 touchdowns to 6 interceptions, 72 % completions, 7 rushing TDs in 2025), who won the 2025 Heisman Trophy and was the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft. 

Curt Cignetti’s massive success in 2025 eventually earned him an 8-year contract that pays him an annual salary of 13.2 million per season. He is now amongst the highest paid coaches in college football alongside Georgia’s Kirby Smart and LSU’s Lane Kiffin. Cignetti signed a six-year, $27 million deal when he first arrived at Indiana in late 2023 from James Madison.

With All-World quarterback Fernando Mendoza off to the NFL, Indiana needed to find a suitable replacement at quarterback. They turned to TCU star quarterback Josh Hoover, who was plucked from the transfer portal. Hoover produced a prolific four-year career at TCU where he passed for 27 and then 29 touchdowns over the last 2 seasons. Following in the footsteps of Fernando Mendoza is a tall task to ask of any quarterback, but Hoover has the resume and experience to come close. 

Josh Hoover has been terrific through his first three games with Indiana, passing for 649 yards with 10 touchdowns and no interceptions, while completing 72.5 percent of his passes. We’ll see how he does tonight against what should be a lot stiffer competition in Northwestern. 

In addition to replacing the enormous production of Fernando Mendoza, Indiana also had to replace two 1,000-yard rushers in running backs Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black, its top two wide receivers in Omar Cooper Jr. and Elijah Sarratt, and tight end Riley Nowakowski. All five players are now in the NFL.

Junior running back Turbo Richard was considered the prized transfer portal addition amongst the skill position players. Richard was outstanding as a sophomore last year with Boston College, rushing 749 yards and 9 touchdowns. Richard is off to a tremendous start with Indiana through two games as he’s rushed for 315 yards on 41 carries — averaging 7.7 yards per carry — and scored 4 touchdowns. 

At wide receiver, junior holdover Charlie Becker leads the team with 12 receptions, 272 yards and 6 receiving touchdowns. Becker is one of the few returning offensive players who got significant playing time (679 receiving yards, 4 TDs last yr) on last year’s 16-0 championship team. Michigan State junior transfer Nick Marsh (11 catches for 169 yards, 2 TDs this yr) is also expected to be a key contributor on Indiana’s offense this year.

The exemplary play of Fernando Mendoza and the offense grabbed most of the headlines last year, but Indiana’s defense was also dominant. They ranked 2nd in the nation in scoring defense at 11.7 ppg and led the nation in turnover margin at plus-21. Much like the offense, Indiana lost several sensational players on defense. A trio of All-Americans in linebacker Aiden Fisher, cornerback D’Angelo Ponds and safety Louis Moore have departed and are now in the NFL.

The Hoosiers do return several outstanding players on defense in junior linebacker Rolijah Hardy (team-leading 103 solo tackles last yr) and senior linebacker Isaiah Jones (7 sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF last yr). Both players have gotten off to great starts this year as they lead the team in tackles and each have an interception. Kansas State transfer defensive tackle Tobi Osunsanmi (2 sacks, 1 FF this yr) is off to a great start and will likely be a standout on Indiana’s defense. 

 

THE PICK: NORTHWESTERN (+21)

Indiana’s three wins this season have come against lesser opponents in North Texas, Howard and Western Kentucky. Tonight’s game against Northwestern will be their first true test of the season. I expect Northwestern will keep this one fairly close. Take the Points…Indiana 34, Northwestern 24