NFL Picks 9/13 – Bucs @ Bengals

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

Opening Week of the 2026 NFL season continues this afternoon with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9, t-2nd in the NFC South last yr) visiting the Cincinnati Bengals (6-11, 3rd in the AFC North last yr) at Paycor Stadium on Fox. The teams are facing off for the first time since the 2022 season when Cincinnati picked up a 34-23 victory at Tampa Bay. Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow — who will also start today’s game — passed for 200 yards and 4 touchdowns in the 2022 victory. The Bengals outscored Tampa 31-6 in the second half of that game after scoring just 3 points in the first half. 

The starting quarterbacks in today’s contest were both No. 1 overall picks. Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield was selected first overall in the 2018 NFL draft out of Oklahoma, while Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow was selected first overall in the 2020 NFL draft out of LSU.

Cincinnati is a 3.5-point favorite and the total is 50.5

BOTH TEAMS LOOKING TO BOUNCE BACK FROM SUBPAR 2025 SEASONS

Tampa Bay’s streak of four consecutive NFC South division titles ended last year after finishing with an 8-9 record. The Bucs appeared to be cruising towards a fifth straight division crown last year after getting off to a 6-2 start. They proceeded to lose 7 of their next 8 games which dropped them to 7-9. The Bucs won their final game of the 2025 season, but lost the division title to Carolina — who also finished with a mediocre 8-9 record — due to tiebreakers. 

Cincinnati is looking to rebound from a dismal 6-11 finish in 2025. Cincinnati’s season took a turn for the worse quickly after superstar quarterback Joe Burrow suffered a grade-3 turf toe injury in the third quarter of their 31-27 Week 2 win against Jacksonville at home. The injury sidelined Burrow for the next 9 games as he missed nearly 3 months. The Bengals season was essentially over when Burrow went down as they were a horrific 1-8 without him, and 3-8 when he returned to finish out the year. 

2026 SEASON OUTLOOK: TAMPA BAY

Despite snapping their streak of four consecutive NFC South division titles, Tampa Bay enters the 2026 season as the favorites (+164) to win the NFC South. The Buccaneers will compete this year without two franchise stalwarts on offense and defense. Star wideout Mike Evans left as a free agent to sign with the San Francisco 49ers, while legendary linebacker Lavonte David retired after 14 seasons in the NFL. Evans (drafted in 2014) and David (drafted in 2012) spent their entire NFL careers with the Bucs. Both will likely enter the NFL Hall of Fame in Tampa Bay jerseys. 

Star quarterback Baker Mayfield returns for his fourth season at the helm for Tampa Bay. Mayfield found his footing in Tampa Bay after a rocky five-year start to his NFL career that saw three teams (Browns, Panthers, and Rams) give up on him. He’s become an elite signal caller during his tenure with the Bucs. Mayfield was selected as a pro-bowler in his first 2 seasons (2023 and 2024) with the team, and passed for a career-high 41 touchdowns in 2024 — which tied for 2nd in the NFL behind Joe Burrow (43). 

During much of the offseason, there appeared to be some friction between Baker Mayfield and Tampa Bay’s management as Mayfield was entering the final year of a 3-year, $100 million deal, and wanted to be extended. They broke off talks at the beginning of training camp but began speaking again about a week ago. The two sides agreed to a 3-year, $165 million deal. With Mayfield signed through the 2029 season, he should be focused and ready to continue his stellar play as a Buccaneer. 

Second-year wideout Emeka Egbuka (63 catches for 938 yards, 6 TD’s last yr) and veteran Chris Godwin Jr. (33 catches for 360 yards, 2 TD’s last yr) will be expected to fill the void left by Mike Evans. Egbuka was one of the top offensive rookies in the NFL last year and should be Tampa’s top wideout in 2026. Rookie third-round pick Ted Hurst III (84th overall – Georgia State) could emerge as viable wideout option as the season goes along.

Third-year running back Bucky Irving will look to bounce back from an injury-plagued (shoulder) second season limited to him just 10 games a year ago. Irving was sensational as a rookie in 2024, registering 1,122 rushing yards, 392 receiving yards and 8 rushing touchdowns. He rushed for 588 yards in 10 games last year. The Bucs signed dual-threat running back Kenneth Gainwell as a free agent to spell or fill-in for Irving. Gainwell led Pittsburgh with 73 catches last season. 

Tampa Bay’s defense is anchored by the superstar duo of superstar safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (93 tackles, 2 INT’s, 1 sack, 1 FF in 17 gms) and defensive tackle Vita Vea (34 tackles, 4.5 sacks in 17 gms). The 28-year-old Winfield is one of the top all-around defensive players in the NFL. The 31-year-old Vea has been one of the most disruptive defensive tackles in terms of pressuring quarterbacks and stuffing the run for the past several seasons.

The Bucs’ defense should get a significant boost from a pair of additions in free agent linebacker Alex Anzalone and rookie first round pick Reuban Bain Jr. (15th overall – Miami). The 31-year-old Anzalone has been a tackling machine over his 9 NFL seasons with New Orleans and Detroit. He’s totaled at least 95 tackles in each of his last 3 full seasons. Bain was one of the top defensive players in college last year and was widely considered to be a top-10 pick in the 2026 NFL draft. 

Concerns about Rueben Bain Jr’s involvement in a 2024 car accident where a woman died, along with his short arms/wingspan caused him to slip in the draft. If those issues are behind him, Bain can become an impactful rookie based on how dominant he was during his three seasons at Miami. Bain is considered the favorite (+475) to win the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award which indicates his immense ability. A lot will be expected from the 22-year-old Miami product in 2026. 

2026 SEASON OUTLOOK: CINCINNATI

When the Cincinnati Bengals finished with the NFL’s worst record at 2-14 in 2019 and secured the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 NFL draft to select LSU quarterback Joe Burrow, many believed the fortunes of the doomed franchise would soon change. Burrow had just completed an extraordinary season at LSU where he passed for 5,671 with 60 touchdowns to 5 interceptions, while leading LSU to a perfect 15-0 record and the 2019-20 BCS National Championship.

Joe Burrow’s NFL career got off to a fast start and he was exceeding his enormous hype as he led Cincinnati to the Super Bowl in his second season (2021) and the AFC Championship Game in his third season (2022). Cincinnati’s last appearance in the Super Bowl prior to 2021 was the 1988 season. Their last postseason win prior to the 2021 season was the 1990-91 playoffs.

However, Joe Burrow’s six-year NFL career has also been marred by injuries and inconsistent play around him, particularly the defense. Burrow has only played a full slate of games — of at least 16 games — in 3 of his 6 NFL seasons. He missed 6 games in 2020 (knee) and 2023 (wrist), and 9 games last year with a toe injury. When Burrow has played a full slate of games he’s passed for 34, 35 and 43 touchdowns, respectively. 

All-World wideout Ja’Marr Chase is Joe Burrow’s top target on offense. The two formed an electrifying combination at LSU in 2019 and they’ve continued to do it for five seasons in the NFL. The Bengals selected Chase fifth overall in the 2021 NFL draft and he’s been exceptional for the Bengals. The 26-year-old Chase finished with 1,412 yards and 8 touchdowns across 16 games last year despite Burrow missing 8 games. 

The duo of wideout Tee Higgins (846 receiving yards, 11 TD’s in 15 gms last yr) and running back Chase Brown (1,019 rushing yards, 437 receiving yards, 11 total TD’s) are also excellent contributors for Cincinnati’s offense. The 27-year-old Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase have been arguably the top wideout duo in the NFL for the past 5 years. The versatile Brown emerged as one of the top running backs in the NFL last season in year three. 

Cincinnati’s defense was considered a huge weakness since Joe Burrow’s arrival in 2020. The Bengals have made a concerted effort to solve their defensive woes in the offseason. They traded for New York Giants star defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II. The Bengals parted with their 10th overall pick in 2026 NFL draft to land Lawrence. The 28-year-old Lawrence made 3 Pro Bowls and 2 All-Pro teams in his 7 seasons with the Giants. 

The Bengals also added veteran defensive tackle Jonathan Allen as a free agent. They inked the 31-year-old Allen to a 2-year, $25 million deal in March. Allen has 45.5 sacks over his 9 NFL seasons with Washington and Minnesota. He’s been selected to 2 pro bowls (2021 and 2022) in his career. The additions of Allen and Dexter Lawrence II should give the Bengals a much-improved pass rush. 

THE PICK: BENGALS (-3.5)

With Joe Burrow healthy, happy and surrounded by what should be a much better defense, I expect a tremendous performance in the season opener at home and more wins this season. Lay the Points…Bengals 35, Buccaneers 27