MLB Picks 7/10 – Yankees @ Nationals

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

Two of the MLB’s top offenses collide tonight as the New York Yankees (51-42) open a three-game set on the road against the Washington Nationals (48-46) at Nationals Park. Washington leads MLB in runs scored (509), while New York leads MLB in homers (135) — Washington’s 132 homers ranks second.

This is the only meeting of the year between the teams. The Yankees swept the Nationals in a three-game series when these teams previously met at Yankee Stadium in August of last season. Washington won two of three against New York when the teams last met in Washington in August 2024. 

New York is coming off a 12-4 win at Tampa Bay yesterday. Emerging superstar Ben Rice belted two homers and drove in five runs for the Yankees. Austin Wells also homered for New York. The victory gave the Yankees a split with Tampa Bay in the four-game set and pulls them to within four games of the first-place Rays.

Washington had the day off yesterday, and is coming off an 8-2 drubbing of the Houston Astros at home on Wednesday night. CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr. both hit their 20th homers of the season for Washington. Garcia’s long ball was a three-run shot in the fourth inning that gave the Nationals a 5-0 lead. Abrams connected on a solo shot in the fifth inning that increased the lead to 6-0.

Washington’s ace Foster Griffin (10-2) delivered a masterpiece as he struck out nine batters and gave up one earned run over seven innings. Griffin has now given up one earned run or less in seven straight starts.

The Nationals took two of three from the Astros at home. Washington’s three-game set against the Yankees will conclude a 9-game homestand. They’ve gone 3-3 so far against Pittsburgh and Houston.

TONIGHT’S STARTERS

Ryan Weathers (3-7, 4.29 ERA, 104 strikeouts in 17 starts) takes the mound for New York and Zack Littell (7-6, 5.02 ERA, 52 strikeouts in 12 starts and 6 relief appearances) starts for Washington.

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: New York (-163),   Washington (+135)

Run Line: New York -1.5 (-103),   Washington +1.5 (+117)

Run Total: over 10 (-106),   under 10 (-113)

GAME STORYLINES: NEW YORK

Last year, the New York Yankees finished with the top record in the American League (94-68) for a second straight season. Unfortunately, division rival Toronto also finished with a 94-68 record and held the tiebreaker which caused the Yankees to drop to fourth place.

Finishing fourth as opposed to first in the AL played a huge role in Toronto’s decisive 3-1 elimination of New York in the divisional round of the playoffs. Toronto outscored New York 34-19 in that series. This was in contrast to the 2024 season where the New York’s 94 wins secured them the AL’s top seed and they advanced to the World Series. 

Despite an underwhelming finish in the postseason, the Yankees did not make their typical flashy additions in the offseason. New York’s notable transaction was re-signing star slugger Cody Bellinger to a five-year, $162 million deal. The Yankees also welcomed back veteran ace Gerrit Cole, who missed the entire 2025 season due to Tommy John surgery. 

The Yankees entered the 2026 season with their customary role as the favorites (+215) to win the loaded American League East and the American League pennant (+450). New York appeared to be cruising towards another dominant season after opening the year at 7-1, and found themselves a season-best 18 games over .500 at 46-28 on June 19. They were also 3 games ahead of the second-place Tampa Bay Rays at the time.

But things have taken a turn for the worse for the Yankees since they stood at 46-28 on June 19 due to injuries. Superstar slugger and reigning back-to-back AL MVP Aaron Judge (rib), star slugger Trent Grisham (hamstring) and veteran slugger Giancarlo Stanton (calf) were lost for significant amounts of time. Judge has not played since May 31, while Stanton has been out since April 24. Grisham missed 3 weeks, and returned one week ago on July 3.

On the pitching side, starting pitcher Max Fried has been out since May 13 after he suffered a left elbow bone bruise at Baltimore on May 13. Fried won an MLB-best 19 games last year in his debut season with the Yankees. 

The absence of sluggers Aaron Judge, Trent Grisham and Giancarlo Stanton led to a prolonged slump that now has the Yankees at 51-42 and 4 games behind the first-place Tampa Bay Rays. New York has gone 5-16 since June 19, and Tampa Bay went from 3 games behind New York to 4 games ahead of them over that span. The Yankees did pick up a convincing 12-4 win at Tampa Bay yesterday. Maybe that win can spark a turnaround for the struggling Yankees.

The exemplary play of emerging superstar first baseman Ben Rice is the top storyline for New York over the first half of the season. The 27-year-old, third-year slugger is hitting .275 with 28 homers and 65 RBI through 88 games. He has four homers in his last 4 games. Rice already surpassed his homer total from last season (26) and matched his RBI total from a year ago (65). 

With reigning back-to-back AL MVP Aaron Judge’s status/return still up in the air, the Yankees will likely need Ben Rice to produce in a similar fashion as Judge for New York to catch Tampa Bay in the standings. Yankees GM Brian Cashman saying Judge will return at some point in the season may infer that Judge is not close to returning. Rice’s four homers in New York’s four-game series at AL-leading Tampa Bay shows he’s capable of Aaron Judge-like production. 

GAME STORYLINES: WASHINGTON

In August 2020, the Washington Nationals front office made the somewhat controversial decision to run off its best players in order to slash payroll and start from scratch. This occurred less than a year after Washington won the 2019 World Series. Star players Trea Turner, Max Scherzer, Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto were all jettisoned to contending teams over a two-year period. Washington’s fire sale has led to six consecutive losing seasons and counting since winning the World Series in 2019.

Through all the futility in recent years, the Washington Nationals have been able to assemble an assortment of young and talented hitters through trades and drafts. This has led to what looks to be a resurgence this season as Washington enters tonight’s contest at 48-46. Being two games over .500 near the All-Star break is an accomplishment for a Nationals franchise that has lost 91 or more games for five straight seasons prior to this year. 

The prolific production from the youthful trio of superstar slugger James Wood (.269, 25 HR, 61 RBI, 15 steals, 22 doubles, 77 walks in 94 gms), star shortstop CJ Abrams (.276, 20 HR, 67 RBI, 15 steals in 90 gms) and first baseman Luis Garcia Jr. (.291, 20 HR, 68 RBI, 16 doubles in 87 gms) has triggered the turnaround for Washington this season. Washington is one of two teams that has 3 players with 20 or more home runs: the Chicago White Sox are the other.

The 23-year-old, Washington D.C. area native (Rockville, Maryland) James Wood established himself as one of MLB’s top sluggers last year when he blasted 31 homers and drove in 94 runs last year across 157 games in his first full season in the majors. CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr. have already matched or exceeded their career-highs in homers. Washington stands a good chance to finish above .500 for the first time since 2019 (93-69) when they won the World Series.

The young trio of James Wood (23), CJ Abrams (25) and Luis Garcia Jr. (26) spearhead a Nationals offense that is arguably the best in MLB. Washington leads MLB in scoring with 509 runs. They also lead MLB in total bases (1,402) and stolen bases (100). The Nationals rank 2nd in homers (132) and slugging percentage (.437) — behind tonight’s opponent, the New York Yankees. 

James Wood and CJ Abrams were both selected to participate in Tuesday’s All-Star game in Philadelphia. It will be the second All-Star game appearance for both players.

The emergence of James Wood and CJ Abrams as elite players must be particularly satisfying for the Nationals due to both guys being part of the massive haul Washington received from San Diego in return for All-World slugger Juan Soto in August 2022. Almost 4 years after the trade, Washington appears to have a young superstar duo who could carry the franchise for the foreseeable future, while the Padres traded Soto after the 2023 season. 

THE PICK: YANKEES (Run Line)

I expect the Yankees to carry the momentum of yesterday’s 12-4 win at AL-leading Tampa Bay into tonight’s game in Washington. Take the Yankees on the Run Line tonight!