MLB Picks 6/30 – Cardinals @ Braves

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The St. Louis Cardinals (43-38) open a three-game series on the road against the National League East-leading Atlanta Braves (49-33) tonight at Truist Park. This is the first head-to-head matchup of the year between the teams. The Cardinals and Braves will square off for a final time in the regular season in just ten days (July 10) at St. Louis. That matchup will also be a three-game set. Atlanta has won three of the last four against the Cardinals. 

Both teams had the day off yesterday.

St. Louis held on for a 2-1 victory against the Miami Marlins in their previous game on Sunday afternoon. Bryan Torres’ two-run homer in the second inning was all the scoring St. Louis needed to win. Starting pitcher Kyle Leahy struck out five and gave up one earned run over 5 innings as he improved to 6-4 on the season. The win prevented a three-game sweep at the hands of Marlins and halted the Cardinals’ four-game losing streak. 

Atlanta is coming off a 3-2 loss at San Francisco on Sunday afternoon. Atlanta’s ace Chris Sale (6.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K) was outdueled by San Francisco’s Robbie Ray (8.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K) in the loss. Matt Olson went 3-for-4 with a run scored for the Braves. He accounted for 3 of Atlanta’s 6 hits on the day. 

The slumping Braves lost two of three in San Francisco and have dropped six of their last seven games. They finished their West Coast road trip through California — at San Diego and San Francisco — with a 1-5 record. They’ll look to rebound when they return home tonight and begin a seven-game homestand. They’ll play four games against the New York Mets after facing St. Louis.

TONIGHT’S PITCHING MATCHUP

Tonight’s starters are Matthew Lieberatore (3-5, 5.56 ERA, 70 strikeouts in 16 starts) for St. Louis and Martin Perez (612-4, 3.00 ERA, 60 strikeouts in 12 starts and 4 relief appearances) for Atlanta.

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: St. Louis (+135),   Atlanta (-163)

Run Line: St. Louis +1.5 (-149),   Atlanta -1.5 (+123)

Run Total: over 9.5 (-109),   under 9.5 (-111)

GAME STORYLINES: ST. LOUIS

The St. Louis Cardinals are amongst the oldest franchises (est. 1883) in MLB, and they’ve been one of the most successful franchises through the years, winning a total of 11 World Series crowns in its history. They’ve won 2 World Series (2006 and 2011) crowns and captured 7 National League Central division titles since 2006.

But the last three seasons have not lived up to the lofty standards of the franchise as St. Louis has failed to make the postseason, and have posted losing records in 2 of the last 3 seasons. St. Louis finished with a dismal 71-91 record in 2023, its worst finish since a 70-92 mark in 1990. If the Cardinals fail to make the playoffs this season for a fourth straight year, it will be their longest playoff drought since missing the playoffs for 8 straight seasons from 1988-1995.

Missing the postseason nowadays is really an ignominious feat since MLB instituted the Wild Card element to the postseason beginning in 1995 where the postseason expanded from 4 teams to 8 teams, then expanded from 8 teams to 10 teams in 2012 and finally went from 10 teams to 12 teams in 2022, which is the current number. So, a franchise with a rich tradition like St. Louis unable to make the postseason with a somewhat diluted system where more and more teams can qualify is a worrisome.

Pitching has been the biggest issue over the last three seasons for the St. Louis Cardinals. They’ve ranked amongst bottom third of MLB in virtually every pitching stat in 2023, 2024 and 2025. The Cardinals’ inability to develop or land an elite, top-of-the-rotation ace pitcher is the main problem. St. Louis’ last bonafide starting pitcher was Alex Wainright in 2021. 

The lack of a power-hitting star in the middle of the lineup was also an issue for the Cardinals in recent years. The decline and eventually departures of aging sluggers Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado led to the offensive woes. The Cardinals have not had a batter hit at least 30 homers since Goldschmidt in 2022 when he captured the National League MVP Award.

The transformation of right fielder Jordan Walker from a promising young player with untapped potential into a five-tool superstar has provided the Cardinals with the power-hitting presence they’ve lacked and played a huge role in the Cardinals being in contention for a playoff bid this season. The 24-year-old, 6-foot-6 Walker enters tonight’s game hitting .290 with 18 homers, 58 RBI, 16 doubles and 10 steals across 79 games. He leads the Cardinals in batting average, homers, RBI and steals.

Jordan Walker’s breakout season is quite the redemption story as he entered MLB with high expectations after being selected in the first round of the 2020 MLB draft (No. 20 overall) out of high school. He made his highly-anticipated MLB debut in 2023 as a 20-year-old and started off his big-league career with a 12-game hitting streak. Walker’s rookie year concluded with him batting .276 with 16 homers and 51 RBI across 117 games. 

Unfortunately, things took a turn for the worse for Jordan Walker after his promising rookie year. The next 2 seasons saw Walker spend large stints in the minors due to his failure to recognize pitches and deficiencies in the field. He played in a total of 162 games in 2024 (51) and 2025 (111). Walker’s struggles appear to be a thing of the past and he’s now becoming the franchise player many envisioned when he was selected in the first round of the 2020 MLB draft as a high-schooler. 

Rookie second baseman JJ Wetherholt is registering an outstanding debut season with the Cardinals. The 23-year-old, West Virginia product is batting .265 with 12 homers, 34 RBI, 35 walks and 9 steals in 77 games. Like Jordan Walker, Weatherholt was also a highly-touted prospect who St. Louis selected with the 7th overall pick (West Virginia) in the 2024 MLB draft. He was the Cardinals’ highest draft pick in 26 years (1998). Weatherholt is currently the betting favorite to win the National League Rookie of the Year at (-155)

GAME STORYLINES: ATLANTA

Last season, the Atlanta Braves finished with a disappointing 76-86 record. It was their worst finish and first losing season since 2017 when they went 72-90. Atlanta’s streak of seven straight postseason appearances also came to an end in 2025. Lingering injuries for superstars Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider, along with season-long pitching struggles, were the main factors in last season’s subpar record.

Atlanta has returned their winning ways in 2026 due to its improved starting pitching — their 3.41 ERA ranks third in MLB. Atlanta’s pitching resurgence has been led by 37-year-old ace Chris Sale. The 9-time All-Star anchors the starting staff with an 8-6 record, a 2.10 ERA and 109:22 K:BB across 15 starts. Tonight’s starter Martin Perez has also been excellent this year. The 35-year-old Perez’s 3.00 ERA ranks second on the team behind Sale.

At the plate, star first baseman Matt Olson has been the standout in Atlanta’s loaded lineup. The 32-year-old, three-time All-Star is batting .276 with 20 homers, 52 RBI and 21 doubles across 82 games. He leads the Braves in homers, RBI and doubles. Olson has averaged 36.5 home runs per year since he joined the Braves in 2022.

The trio of Michael Harris II (.276, 14 HR, 43 RBI, 13 doubles in 76 gms), second baseman Ozzie Albies (.274, 12 HR, 44 RBI in 82 gms) and second-year catcher Drake Baldwin (.255, 14 HR, 39 RBI in 59 gms) are also registering very good seasons alongside Matt Olson. The 25-year-old Baldwin was the 2025 NL Rookie of the Year. He was the third Braves player to win the honor over an 8-year period, joining teammates Harris (2022) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (2018).

Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring) and Spencer Strider (elbow) are still hampered by injuries again this year and are both currently on the injured list. Acuna missed a little over two weeks of action with a left hamstring strain in May and re-injured the same hamstring on June 9 against the Chicago White Sox, which landed him back on the injured list. Acuna could be out until the All-Star break (July 14). Acuna was hitting .251 with 7 homers, 22 RBI and 15 stolen bases across 53 games this year.

Spencer Strider began the year on the injured list after suffering a left oblique (stomach) strain during a Spring Training outing in March. He made his season debut on May 3 and was 4-2 with a 5.31 ERA and 46:22 K:BB in 8 starts, but landed back on the IL after experiencing right elbow inflammation during a June 12 start against the New York Mets. The Braves placed Strider on the 60-day injured list which means he’ll be out until at least mid-July. 

The losses of Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spender Strider are becoming troublesome for Atlanta as they’ve lost 6 of their last 7 games and are 4-12 since June 7. Atlanta’s subpar run began around the same time both players landed on the injured list. The reigning back-to-back NL East champion Philadelphia Phillies are now within 3.5 games of the Braves. Atlanta held a 9.5 game lead over Philadelphia on June 7.

Can Atlanta fend off the surging Philadelphia Phillies with arguably their best two players in Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider out for at least the next three weeks?

THE PICK: CARDINALS (Moneyline)

Atlanta has been struggling of late and I don’t think returning home from a West Coast trip is going to help. I expect a big game from Georgia (Decatur) native Jordan Walker as he makes his only regular-season visit to his home state for this three-game series. Take the Cardinals on the Moneyline!