NBA Playoff Picks 5/15 – Spurs @ Timberwolves

The Western Conference Semifinals continue tonight with the second-seeded San Antonio Spurs (62-20 in the regular season) visiting the sixth-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33) at Target Center on Amazon Prime. San Antonio took a 3-2 lead after manhandling Minnesota 126-97 on Tuesday night. With a win tonight, the Spurs will advance to the Western Conference Finals to face the top-seeded and defending NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder.

San Antonio advanced to the second round after dispatching of the pesky Portland Trail Blazers 4-1 in the opening round. The Spurs made history against the Blazers in their Game 4 win at Portland when they became the first team to trail by 15+ points at halftime and then win by 15+ points in a postseason game. The Spurs trailed 58-41 at the half and ended up winning 114-98.

Minnesota advanced to the second round after upending the third-seeded Denver Nuggets 4-2 in the opening round. The Timberwolves were able to vanquish Denver despite losing superstar Anthony Edwards (knee) and Donte DiVincenczo (Achilles) to injuries during their 112-96 victory in Game 4. Both players missed the rest of the series, but Minnesota still eliminated the higher-seeded Nuggets after picking up a 110-98 win at home in Game 6.

This is the third playoff matchup between San Antonio and Minnesota. The Spurs eliminated the Timberwolves 3-1 in the first round (which were best-of-five series) of the 1999 and 2001 playoffs.

San Antonio is a 5.5-point favorite, and the total is 218.5.

San Antonio entered the series as a prohibitive favorite (-2000) to advance past Minnesota in the Conference Semis. The Spurs-Timberwolves presented an intriguing storyline with the talented, but inexperienced Spurs facing a Timberwolves team that has advanced to the Western Conference Finals in each of the last 2 seasons.

The status of Anthony Edwards also loomed over the series. The explosive, superstar guard suffered a left knee bruise and hyperextension in Game 4 against Denver on April 25. The injury caused him to miss the final 2 games of that series, and it was feared that Edwards would be out for multiple weeks. Miraculously, Edwards healed in time to participate in Game 1 on May 4, just 9 days after getting injured.

With Anthony Edwards back and available to play, Minnesota stunned San Antonio 104-102 in Game 1. The Timberwolves brought Edwards off the bench in an effort to manage his minutes. Edwards scored 11 of his 18 points in the fourth quarter as Minnesota held on for the win. Julius Randle poured in a team-high 21 points and pulled down 10 rebounds for Minnesota in the victory.

San Antonio phenom Victor Wembanyama recorded a triple-double of 11 points, 15 rebounds and an NBA playoff record 12 blocks in the loss. He became the youngest player in NBA history to record a triple-double that included blocks in a playoff game.

San Antonio rebounded from their shocking loss in Game 1, by winning the next two games and taking a 2-1 series lead. They blew out Minnesota 133-95 in Game 2, handing the Timberwolves their worst postseason defeat in its history. The Spurs defeated the Timberwolves 115-108 in Game 3 at Minnesota.

Victor Wembanyama registered a spectacular performance in San Antonio’s Game 3 win, finishing with 39 points (13-18 FG, 3-5 3Pt, 10-12 FT), 15 rebounds and 5 blocks across 37 minutes. Wembanyama became the second player in NBA history (Hakeem Olajuwon) to put up 35 points, 15 rebounds and 5 blocks in a road playoff game.

After falling behind 2-1, Minnesota rallied for a 114-109 victory in Game 4 to even the series at two. Game 4 featured perhaps the most shocking moment of the playoffs when Spurs superstar center Victor Wembanyma was ejected with 8:39 remaining in the second quarter for elbowing Naz Reid in the neck. Wembanyama finished with 4 points and 4 rebounds in 12 minutes. It was the first ejection of his career.

Without Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio was able to go ahead by 8 points at various stages in the third quarter and early fourth quarter, but a 16-4 run from Minnesota that began at the 6:17 mark of the fourth quarter put the Timberwolves up 107-101 with 1:56 remaining in the game. Minnesota went on to win by 5.

Anthony Edwards poured in a game-high 36 points (13-22 FG, 3-5 3Pt, 7-8 FT) in the win for Minnesota. He scored 16 points in the fourth quarter, which ignited Minnesota’s rally from 8 points down. It was Edwards’ second straight game with at least 30 points. De’Aaron Fox led San Antonio with 24 points in the loss.

The series shifted back to San Antonio for a pivotal Game Five on Tuesday night. And with Victor Wembanyama fresh from his early ejection in Game 4, San Antonio routed Minnesota 126-97. San Antonio jumped out to a 24-9 lead in the first quarter and went up by as much as 18 (58-40) late in the second quarter. San Antonio led 59-47 at the half.

It appeared as if Minnesota would be competitive when they tied the game at 61 with 7:51 left in the third quarter, but San Antonio responded with an 11-2 run to go up 71-62. The Spurs closed the third quarter on a 30-12 run to take a 91-73 lead heading into the fourth quarter. San Antonio was never challenged in the final frame.

Victor Wembanyama registered another historic performance for the Spurs in the Game 5 win, finishing with 27 points (9-16 FG, 2-5 3Pt, 7-9 FT), 17 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 blocks over 33 minutes. He had a 20-point, 10-rebound double-double by halftime, joining David Robinson and Tim Duncan as the only San Antonio players to accomplish this.

Game Five also saw Victor Wembanyama become the third-youngest player (age 22) to record a stat line of at least 27 points, 15 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 blocks in a playoff game. Magic Johnson (20) and Luka Doncic (21) top that list.

For San Antonio, it’s the dominant postseason debut of Victor Wembanyama. The 7-foot-4, French phenom was selected with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NBA draft and entered the NBA as one of the most ballyhooed prospects in NBA draft history. Wembanyama put up excellent individual stats during his first 2 NBA seasons but it did not translate into team success as San Antonio finished with records of 22-60 and 34-48 over his first two seasons.

Everything came together for Victor Wembanyama and San Antonio this year as he continued to dominate, while the Spurs became an elite team. The Spurs increased their win total by a whopping 28 games during the regular season. Wembanyama has not been phased by the “bright lights” of the playoffs. He’s averaging 20 points, 13.2 rebounds, 4.4 blocks and 1.4 threes per contest on 50.7 percent from the floor in 5 games against Minnesota.

For Minnesota, it’s the continued postseason brilliance of Anthony Edwards. The 24-year-old, four-time All-Star was supposed to miss part or all of this series for San Antonio after suffering a left knee injury against Denver on April 25. Edwards defied the odds and was able to return for the series opener on May 4.

After being on a minutes restriction in Games 1 and 2 that limited him to averages of 15 ppg in 24.5 minutes per game, Anthony Edwards resembled his All-NBA form when those restrictions were lifted. Edwards is averaging 29.3 ppg over 40 minutes per game in Games 3-5. He scored a playoff-high 36 points in Minnesota’s 114-109 win in Game 4. Edwards has a career postseason average of 25.9 ppg across 51 games in his career over 5 seasons.

Minnesota has made back-to-back Western Conference Finals appearances prior to this season. I think they give an inspired effort tonight in front of a raucous crowd tonight to stave off elimination and preserve their chances at a third straight trip to the Western Conference Finals. I expect the Timberwolves to keep this one close or win outright and force a Game 7 in San Antonio on Sunday. Take the Points and the Timberwolves!