NFL Conference Championship Previews: Let’s Talk About The Lines

NFL Conference Championship Previews: Let’s Talk About The Lines

• By NFL analyst Gabriel Rauch for Wannamakeabet.com

• Bengals/Chiefs CBS 3PM EST
• 49ers/Eagles FOX 6:30PM EST

There are three games left in the NFL playoffs and even with an extra week, the season always feels too short. Just wait until we (probably) have a twenty week regular season where each team has two bye weeks. 

After a crazy regular season and a (wild) Wild Card round, the Divisional was somewhat chalky with three of the four favorites covering. Three of the four teams from last year made it back, along with the new addition of the Eagles, who have been the best team in the NFC all season. The oddsmakers have set both games pretty competitive with seemingly clear favorites, however, the lines are tricky…

AFC Championship Preview: Bengals at Chiefs(-1.5)

Turn on any sports talk show and you will hear about how Joe Burrow owns the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes’ health is questionable because of his ankle injury last week. The media has made up their mind and will likely be pushing the Bengals, but what do gamblers think? 

Weird Line Movement

The line at most sportsbooks started at Chiefs -1, then moved all the way to Bengals -2.5! Now it has gone back up to anywhere from Chiefs -1 to -1.5 on most sportsbooks. Here at wannamakeabet.com the line is Chiefs -1.5. All of the line movement is likely due to the public perception of Mahomes injury, going from him looking very injured last Saturday to maybe not so injured at the press conference earlier this week. Keep in mind that no one really knows Mahomes status, and the Chiefs will make sure of that by playing politics and keeping tight lips. 

Advantages

These teams are clearly very even, with the last three games all going down to the wire, despite Burrow’s 3-0 record. The Bengals defense has come up clutch each time as Mahomes seemingly cannot break through in the final minutes, while Burrow’s comebacks, last second heroics and luck has earned him a Tom Brady narrative.

The Chiefs are the healthier team (depending on Mahomes), while the Bengals beat up offensive line will have a big step up in class from the Bills. They will be punished by Chris Jones and the 2nd best pass rush in the NFL. The Bengals defense will be a big step up from the Jags, especially at tight end, meaning Travis Kelce will probably be a little more limited. Great news for the Bengals, who will be happy to let anyone else try to beat them in the receiving game. The deciding factor for me is that Mahomes passing yards total is currently 285.5 at BetMGM, surprisingly high versus one of the best defenses in the NFL. This is a good sign Mahomes will play well and could be a deciding factor if he does. 

The Pick: Chiefs -1.5

NFC Championship Preview: 49ers at Eagles(-2.5)

This game is much simpler; a line that has not moved since it opened, with the public clearly on the Eagles to cover. A 2.5 home favorite seems to be a trap, but how do the two teams stack up? This is a battle between the two most dominant teams in the NFC, both exceptional run games, great defenses and a quarterback who rarely makes mistakes. 

Mismatches

Brock Purdy has not only looked exceptional but experienced, however, he is still a rookie, while Jalen Hurts likely would have been the MVP if it wasn’t for his injury. If this comes down to a close game where a quarterback has to make a last second decision, Eagles win. In other areas of the game, the Eagles run defense has been their only weakness this season (still middle of the pack in the league) playing against a flurry of 49ers runners who have been close to unstoppable. Christian McCaffrey and company will have fun Sunday night. Lastly, the 49ers defense is the best in the league against the run, making them a next level challenge for the Eagles dynamic offense.

The only way to beat the Eagles all year has been to ensure Jalen Hurts does not have the ball in his hands. This is what the Commanders did in their aforementioned win over them, as Hurts did not even have a chance to try to score at the end. The 49ers run attack will be enough to control the clock and limit Hurts’ game. As I mentioned earlier, the spread is trying to make the better a sucker, with the Eagles 2.5 forcing the gambler to take the more obvious bet of the home team winning by a field goal. Do not fall for it. 

The Pick: 49ers +2.5