NFL Wildcard Weekend Picks – Is Tom Done?

NFL Wildcard Weekend Picks – Is Tom Done?

Welcome to the NFL post-season at  We have six amazing games on our doorstep and we’re ready for action across all leagues.  Listen to our Podcast on Spotify and Apple music with Jack and Cello to get a data driven, bourbon infused deep dive opinion and prediction on every single game on the card.  Here’s everything going on at the site this weekend:

Website Updates

  • Invites are out for the NFL Playoffs Cash League.  Just log in, accept the invite and you’re in.  Everyone received their weekly 50K points this morning.
  • You can still get into the January All Sports Cash League – the league for true degenerates who need action across basketball, hockey and football too.  Everyone got their 50K fresh points this morning.
  • The Bowl Bonanza League is over.  Congrats to member “Deflippert” who finished in first place and wins the $100 cash prize.  He finished with 609,426 points.  And congrats to all our Georgia Bulldogs fans out there, we know there are many of you.
  • Seattle / 49ers preview and Giants / Vikings preview from NFL analyst Thomas Quaynor.
  • Cowboys / Tampa Bay Bucs preview from analyst Gabriel Rauch coming soon.

AND NOW… Wildcard Weekend Commish Picks

The Commish had one more 4-1 week last week to cap off an amazing season as my only loss was the Jags not covering against Tennessee.   That brings the final record for the 2022 NFL season to 50/81 (62%). Once again, for a full preview of every single game on the Wildcard Weekend card, make sure you listen to our podcast.  Here’s who the commish likes this weekend

Seattle Seahawks +9.5 over San Francisco 49ers

It’s just too many points.  Division rivalry. Trying to beat a team for the third time in a year.  Rookie quarterback.  These are the themes resonating with me this morning.  And playing against Pete Carroll who has been known to dial up a winning defensive scheme or two over his career is another asset.  And Shanny gets conservative in spots like this too.  The script seems pretty straight forward for the 49ers to de-risk Purdy on offense… run the ball and play field position. The Hawks have struggled to stop the run (I have them ranked 22nd in my power rankings) but the 49ers have quietly slipped out of the top 10 running the ball over the past month as well.   Just hoping the Hawks can step up there and also find a way to at least slow down Kittle and they should stay inside the number and maybe even have a chance to win this thing for the big upset.  This is not going to be easy for Seattle, but they have the offensive weapons (Geno, Walker, Metcalf, Lockett) to hang around and maybe have a chance and do something magical at the end

Buffalo Bills – 13.5 over Miami Dolphins

In order to win playoff games you need to have your best players healthy. And with Tua still concussed and Teddy’s bum finger, Skyler Thompson is going to step out onto the field for Miami in Orchard Park with a near impossible task. I have Buffalo ranked number 1 in my power rankings and Miami has slipped to 17th and their pass defense is a horrific 27th.  We losing at least three points of value betting into this number here but this is going to be a very long day for Miami as Buffalo starts their march to the Super Bowl inspired by the recovery of Damar Hamlin and their belief that they are the best team in the league.

Dallas Cowboys -2.5 over Tampa Bay Bucs

This is my lowest confidence pick this weekend but I’m going for it anyway. I continue to believe that these Bucs are a horrible team.  They are the lowest ranked team (22nd) playing this weekend besides the Vikings.  Their body of work this season has been putrid and especially their offense has been so hard to watch with only a few exceptions (like last week).  That makes this a buying opportunity for Dallas, who did not play well against Washington.  So a perfect Buy Low / Sell High for both sides here.  Dallas should be laying 3.5 or 4 in this one so laying less than a field goal is too hard to pass up for me.  Everyone still thinks Tom Brady can just turn it on for the playoffs and go on a run to the Super Bowl like year’s past but he doesn’t have the coaching, offensive line, weapons, or the arm strength to do it against a high caliber defense like this.  For Dallas, I know this is a huge “if” but if Dak doesn’t turn it over on Monday night, Dallas wins easy.  And he has enough experience to do just that.  The highest risk for Dallas actually comes from coaching.  I fully expect to see a dumbfounded look on McCarthy’s face as he does his best to mismanage the game and the clock down the stretch, which he has done repeatedly this season and throughout his career.

The Other Games I like from the Podcast

  • Baltimore Ravens +9.5 over Cincinnati (it’s just too many points)
  • New York Giants +3 over Minnesota (The smoke and mirror show ends this week)
  • Jacksonville Jaguars +2 over LA Chargers (Home dog, flip a coin)

Good luck with your selections, you’ll need it to cover today.


Leave a Reply