Jags / Jets TNF Preview: A Strategy Is A Strategy

Jags Jets TNF Preview: A Strategy Is A Strategy

Gabriel Rauch for wannamakeabet.com

I’m gonna let you in on a secret to how I pick games, it’s served me well the last two years. I look at the line and ask myself two things:

-What is the spread telling me about the game?

-What is the average gambler missing?

So does this work every time? Of course not! If it did, I would be a 100% gambler and not a 52-55% gambler. But the point is consistency, and this is a strategy that is consistently winning.

Why am I bringing this up for this game? Every gambler has faced the feeling where they feel certain about a game, all their research has shown them that their bet should win and on paper have no reason to feel nervous. Yet there is a nagging feeling that keeps getting in the way, that threatens to undermine the whole bet. The nagging feeling in this game takes the form of Jets quarterback Zach Wilson. 

The spread has moved up from Jets -1 to Jets -2.5, despite the majority of bets (according to Action Network and BetMGM) being on the Jaguars to cover shows me that reverse line movement is at play here. If you want to learn more about reverse line movement, there are many articles on gambling websites that can educate you; in short it means the sharps have chosen a side on a game and the sportsbook is moving the line toward the side they have chosen and not the side that the vast majority of gamblers have chosen. If you don’t know what a sharp is, they’re the gamblers who are usually correct on picking games, which means Jets are the pick here. But then again, do I really want to bet on Zach Wilson?

A lot of gamblers bet on names and recency bias. “Does one team have more names that I recognize than the other, and is one team hotter than the other,” are often natural questions that come to mind. It is no surprise why the majority of bets are on the Jaguars, they are on a two game winning streak, winning 4 of the last 6. The Jets are on a three game losing streak and their last win was against a Bears team without Justin Fields. There is also the storylines factor of the game, and this is where the names come in. 

This game will be sold to the public from Amazon and other sports media as Trevor Lawrence vs Zach Wilson, the #1 vs #2 pick in the 2021 draft. Lawrence has taken a leap this year, most of which was probably just getting rid of Urban Meyer as his coach, and Wilson has not. In fact, Wilson is probably not even the second best quarterback on his own team. So Trevor Lawrence=good, Zach Wilson=bad, we get it. However, the NFL is not a vacuum and the quarterback is shockingly not the only player that matters on each team. 

Lawrence faces a Jets defense that is getting key player Quinnen Williams back from injury, bolstering an already great defense and the best defense Lawrence has played since the Broncos in October (because apparently the Cowboys can’t stop anyone anymore). Wilson is facing a Jags defense that is 29th in passing yards given up per game, and 27th in total yards given up per game. The Jets have a huge advantage at defense over the Jags, which could be what the average gambler is missing. But once again, there is the Zach Wilson factor, a quarterback so bad he is actually 34th in completion % in the NFL. 

As we know about strategies, the point is to stick with it no matter what, which means I will be going with the Jets here. However, all the logic and analysis that the Jets defense will smother Trevor Lawrence or that Jets offense will look competent against an awful secondary, and all of the sharps liking the Jets, there is an underlying feeling that still remains: I am betting on Zach Wilson. Will I be burned for the last and final time in this game, or will the strategy work against even the naggiest of the nagging feelings? Stay tuned tonight to find out. 

Pick: Jets -2.5