Week 13 NFL Picks – AFC Champ Rematch

Week 13 NFL Picks – AFC Champ Rematch

Ready for lucky 13 as we are officially in the last full month of the regular NFL season.  Don’t forget to listen to our weekly podcast where we go through every game on the card and provide analysis and picks.  The commish took one on the chin last week going 2-3 after the Dallas game on Thanksgiving caused a lot of heartache, Seattle’s defense regressed to the mean against the Raiders, and the Chargers went for two against Arizona instead of taking the game to overtime and winning the traditional way.  That brings the season record to 30/51 (58.82%). Here’s who we have our eye on this fine Sunday.   All lines are from Wannamakeabet.com at the time of this post.   Only four games today as I already had the Bills in my top 5 from Thursday night football.

Tennessee Titans +4.5 over Philly Eagles

I’m not getting the CLV that I would have two days ago but I still like the Titans at this number.   The Eagles defense has been exposed over the past month and by teams that are not as high quality as the Titans.   That includes giving up 33 to the Packers and 32 to the Commanders.   And where they are really weak is against the run, currently ranked 24th in the league according to DVOA.  This doesn’t bode well for a game against the Titans and the leagues best rusher in Henry.  A well coached team who comes in off a tough loss to the Bengals will be hungry and focused today and can easily win this game or cover against an Eagles team that is over rated.

San Francisco -3.5 over Miami

Big step up in class for the Dolphins today as they have spent the last month beating up on some of the league’s worst defenses (Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland, Texans) but today is the polar opposite.  Coach McDaniels returns to SF where he learned it all under Shanny and that cuts both ways.  His bag of tricks is merely a derivative of what Shanny taught him.  This SF defense will be swarming today and Tua won’t have the time to dance around and spend five seconds finding Tyreek.  The Miami defense is currently ranked 17th.  Long way to travel for the Fins as well.  And even though it’s well documented that Jimmy is my betting kryptonite, SF can get the job done today and cover this relatively low number in what should be a very entertaining game.

Kansas City – 2 over Cincy

Great game today in the Queen city for this rematch of last year’s AFC championship game and the Chiefs must have had this one circled from the beginning.  They roll in with the league’s best offense and the unstoppable combination of Mahomes/Kelce.   Cincy has let much lower ranked offenses score a lot of points on them the past month (like Steelers:30) and I don’t see them being able to slow down Mahomes today, especially when it really matters in the 4th quarter.  I love the Chiefs when they’re laying a small number on the road like this.  And their road record straight up over the last three years is 19-4 and they won every single one of those games by more than 2 points.

Saints +3.5 over Tampa

This is the battle of the dysfunctional, under performers in the NFC south on Monday Night Football this week.  You can’t ignore a few things when it comes to this handicap.  The Saints are 7-3 straight up against Tampa the last five years and won on the road 4 out of 5.  And even though the Saints are ranked in the bottom of the league overall, their defense is still solid and ranked 15th.   The NFC south is still totally up for grabs.  And the Saints have not had a bye yet but if they get this W they will have just as many Ws as the Bucs so there’s no shortage of motivation this week.  The Saints keep this close or get the W and that extra hook on the 3 is all the commish needs.