Week 7 NFL Picks

We have arrived at Week 7 of the NFL season and the commish is comin in hot!  Last week was another 4-1 performance and that brings our season record to  14/24 (58.33%) and we’re looking to stay hot again this week with these picks from today’s card.  All lines are from Wannamakeabet.com at the time of this post.

Tampa Bay – 12.5 over Carolina

Last week was a three team teaser wrecking, Survivor stabbing loss to anyone who backed the Bucs in Pittsburgh.  “All they had to do was win the game” are often the worst words spoken about a team that crashes and burns like they did at the Tomlin’s door last Sunday.  But this week they’re not facing an angry team with a lot of pride and pedigree like the Steelers.  They’re playing a team that is totally broken with no real head coach, no quarterback, no secondary, no locker room and having just traded their best player to the 49ers.  Ok fine, they have a decent pass rush but I digress.   I’m starting to hate the term “get right” because it’s so over used but if ever there was an opportunity for TB12 and the bucs to do it, this is it.

Cincinnati -6.5 over Atlanta

Atlanta has been a great bus for the commish to ride in the past few weeks but this is the week he hops off.  There are so many weapons coming their way this week and Atlanta is sporting a bottom 3 defense which does not bode well for them in this matchup.   And even though DJ Reader is out for Cincy’s D for one more week, they should be able to find a way to keep the Falcons from gashing them in the middle with the run so that Mariotta will have to drop back and beat them.   Cincy has played top half defenses all year (Steelers,  Dallas, Miami, Baltimore, Saints, Jets) and they finally get a reprieve Sunday and get a cupcake that they can light up.  Atlanta is 6-0 ATS.  Time to regress to the mean.

Denver Broncos + 2 over NY Jets

This line opened at Denver -3.5 and has swung all the way to Jets -2.  Are we all comfortable with the fact that Russell Wilson, who is not suiting up today, is worth 5.5 points??  I realize he’s been struggling (that’s kind) but the Denver game plan can arguably be executed better by someone other than Russell right now given his recent struggles.  And that person is going to be Brett Rypien today.  His only other start, btw, was in 2020 when he beat… the Jets.  Are you all familiar with the concept of the quarterback jinx?  It states that, when the entire country bets on a team because they’re playing a backup QB, that backup QB will come into the game and light you up.

Seattle +4.5 over LA Chargers

The Chargers have a real problem at cornerback.  J.C. Jackson was benched last week and he will likely return again this week but still, Asante Samuel cannot cover both Lockett and Metcalf.   On top of that, the Charger offense continues to be lethargic and Herbert is not throwing the ball down field because with Keenan Allen hurt Mike Williams gets all the attention.  The commish has been riding Seattle and even though this is the worst of the number (opened at 7 last Sunday) I’m still a believer at this number as Seattle may just win this game outright.  P.S.  Even though I don’t really bet totals and they’re not available in the contests I’m in, I like the Over 50 here.

San Francisco +2 over Kansas City

The Chiefs had their egos bruised last week after the loss to Buffalo despite there being no shame in losing to this year’s best team.    Now they get on the road to SF and take on an equally good defense in the 49ers.  The Chiefs defense is not elite.  And it’s the reason they lost the game to the Bills last week.  They just don’t tackle well after catches and that’s the entire game plan of the 49ers.  Quick screens and shallow stuff over the middle and then receivers like Samuel getting YAC.  Now we add new addition CMC to the mix and look the F out.  This line is moving and may be a pick-em by game time but either way, the commish is thinking the 49ers to get the W.