Last week was tough for the commish. Picking the Jets is never easy, but backing Mike White and treating him like he’s the second coming of Joe Namath is downright embarrassing. The Browns also laid an egg for the commish as the Patriots are proving themselves to be one of the toughest teams in the AFC. Again! But we still got there with the Vikings and Chiefs and fickle Philly gave us a losing week. But still, 2-3 last week, not terrible, which brings our season win total to 28-50 (56%). Now we head to week #11 with our NFL 2021 Week 11 predictions and here’s who the commish has his eye on for this afternoon. All lines are from Wannamakeabet.com at the time of this post.
Minnesota Vikings +1 over Green Bay Packers
It’s no secret the commish has been backing the Vikings week after week and I’m not jumping off the train this week after the impressive win at LAC last week. The Vikings have to be the best four win team in the league and my power rankings have them currently 9th while the pack are at 12. Meanwhile, strength of schedule has been easy on the Packers and they won’t be getting the home field calls and poor weather today. Vikings seemed to have solved some of their coaching issues which cause late game collapses and hoping they can hang on for this important division win today.
New Orleans Saints + 2.5 over Philadelphia Eagles
I’ll give Philly credit, at least they seem to know who they are now. Which is a team that runs the ball with their quarterback. Run, run, run and sometimes throw it to Devanta Smith. But the Saints are the number one team against the run. And that tends to keep them in every game they play. The last two weeks were heartbreakers as they lost by two each week and the refs handed Tennessee the win last week. Trevor Simien has been throwing good balls in those efforts but the Saints roster is thin. But Philly will give him all the underneath stuff today, which is what he’s good at without any real deep threats. This is a close one, a nail biter actually. But Philly has a tendency to let their fans down at home and that happens again today, just when the whole country starts to believe in them.
NFL 2021 Week 11 Predictions
Seattle Seahawks – 2 over Arizona Cardinals
When this line first came out at Zona -1.5 it was playing perfectly into my love of NFC West dogs so I’m getting a bad number here but still on board. This is one of the best matchups of the week, for sure. But now that Kyler Murray will be sitting this out and it and will be the second week back for Russ and the mallet finger, I’m still sticking with the birds at home with that raucous crowd. This is a must. win. game as they are sitting at 3-6. I’m a tad reluctant because Seattle has such high variance based on how Russ plays. Last week’s effort in Green Bay was truly a stinker, and the refs didn’t help. But I’ll chalk that up to rust and the finger. But today is their day. The league needs this win and the refs will help deliver. I’m just banking on an elite Russ today, plus Lockett and Metcalf and that will be all the doctor orders as Murray watches helplessly from the sideline.
Dallas Cowboys +2.5 over Kansas City Chiefs.
The game of the week. We can’t fall into the trap that Chiefs are back after a semi blowout win of the Raiders on the road. Is the only issue turnovers with this team? No. The defense ranks 30th in the league while Dallas D ranks 4th. Statement game for the Chiefs today, I get it. But these two offenses are actually equal (ranked 4th and 5th respectively) I’m just crossing my fingers that McCarthy is smart enough (that gives him a lot of credit I know) to learn the lesson about playing man coverage on this Chiefs team. You simply can’t do it. Mahomes hates playing boring, conservative offense but that’s what Dallas better give him today if they want this win. Dak and Zeke for the road win or cover and fingers crossed that Mike doesn’t get outcoached by Andy with the game on the line,
LA Chargers – 5 over Pittsburgh Steelers
On paper, this is a blowout. But rah rah Tomlin and his old school messages to the team are working again. But what I’m not really understanding is that Tomlin said in a presser that they’re building an offense around Rudolphs strengths and weaknesses. Which means he sees both Rudolph and Big Ben as interchangeable. Translation, neither one can throw the ball down the field. This is the part of the season where it all starts to fall apart for Pittsburgh. In fact, it started last week in that ugly tie to the Lions. Tonight I bank on the offense (ranked 6th versus 22) winning over defense on national TV and reversing the recent trends for both teams. The Chargers must play less conservative if they’re going to win this game and I’m betting on the spotlight letting them air it out a little bit more than they normally do. Anyone can beat the big bad Steelers, you just have to believe it.
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NFL 2021 Week 11 Predictions