Week 11 NFL Predictions

Ready for the 2020 Week 11 NFL Predictions?   Last week was tough for the commish going 0-3-1 but I’m ready to get back on the horse and keep firing as my season record in this blog continues to be decent at 19-16-2.    Lessons learned:  Never bet against New England at home unless Bellichick retires or dies .  Seattle is regressing to the mean and if Wilson has a bad game, they’re toast.   Despite the Bad beat in Cleveland, I still love Nick Chubb and the Broncos going for a two point conversion cost me the total against the Raiders. Here’s who I have my eye on this week.

Browns – 3 over Philly – The Eagles are horrible.  They gave up nearly 5 yards per rush to Gallman and the Giants, who are not a good rushing football team.  On top of that, Carson Wentz is, according to my numbers, the worst quarterback in the NFL.  He continues to lose the ball twice a game and take sacks in can’t take a sack situations.  I’m not sure what Pederson is doing with him or this offense but they are heading in the wrong direction fast.  The weather in Cleveland has been horrific the past two games and when that happens, they run the ball 80 percent of the time.  Third time’s a charm this week and hopefully Nick doesn’t step out of bounds during a front door cover.  I also like the Under 47.5 in this one for a small wager.

Atlanta + 4.5 over New Orleans – Isn’t this always a field goal game?  Atlanta is playing at league average or better, and they have been hot.  Jameis Winston is in for Drew Brees and it doesn’t feel like the Saints have been downgraded at all here.  Calvin Ridley is also coming back and Atlanta appears to be at full strength and very motivated here.    I am slightly nervous that the Saint offense could explode here and I lose by 20 but there is certainly enough line value here for the commish to take a dip +4.5.

Detroit / Carolina Over 49

Neither one of these teams can stop anyone and Carolina has been especially vulnerable to giving up big numbers as was evidenced by them getting blown out by the Chiefs and Bucs.  Now Detroit doesn’t have that kind of offensive firepower and Stafford is questionable with the injury so I’ll be watching this closely but if Stafford plays and Galloday is back we have the recipe for an extremely high scoring game here.  I’m on this over in anticipation of Stafford playing and will only cancel if he’s out.

Jacksonville +10 over Pittsburgh

Double digit home dog is always attractive to the commish.  And the Steelers have historically struggled with this team.  Steelers also have a short week coming up with a game on Thanksgiving against the Ravens so I see this as one of those “let’s just get a win” affairs and it might be really ugly.  Another angle of the handicap is they play the first half well and then because of the Ravens game, kind of coast to a 3 to 7 point victory with ease in the second half.  The Steelers are the best team in the league in my opinion, which certainly gives me pause in this one, but it is exactly because of this that I think Tomlin will protect Ben in this one and not really put him in a position to put too much pressure on the elbow, shoulder, or risk dropping back too much in the pocket and getting hit, especially in the 4th quarter.

Tennessee + 7 over Baltimore –

I bet this one early so apologies that many of you won’t be able to get this number.  The Patriots humiliated the commish last week and somehow ran the ball down Baltimore’s throat with someone named Damien Harris, which was shocking to me.  Well if they thought stopping him was hard I hope they’re ready for Derek Henry to come at them this week.  And just as the Steelers have a short week coming up next so do the Ravens.    Both of these teams have messed with the commish this season as both are a bit unpredictable and tend to not play well especially when I bet them but I’m still taking the Titans and smug Vrable and their shitty defense in this one because the Titans should be able to score on these guys and 6 or 7 points should be plenty enough to get the cover, especially after showing the recipe for how to beat them in last year AFC championship game.

Packers + 2 over Indy

Aaron Rodgers indoors.  Look the F out.  Add in that zone defense that Indy plays and he should have a field day here.  Throw it in a Wong teaser leg if it makes you feel better but the Pack are in a prime position here.  D’Vonte Adams going up against Xavier Rhodes is the ultimate red headed step child match up for D’Vante.    And then you likely have Rivers having to play from behind, which is, hands down, the worst possible situation he could be in.  Colts are over valued here after beating Tennessee and by the way, they have to play them AGAIN next week so this sets up for a trap scenario without a ton of motivation for the Colts.

Kansas City Chiefs – 7 over Las Vegas Raiders

Andy Reid off a bye, Andy Reid off a bye, Andy Reid off a bye.  Have you seen this enough times in your newsfeeds to make you puke yet?  This is another one that I bet as soon as the line came out at 7 as I fully expected it to go higher immediately.  What happened was the opposite as early money came in on the Raiders and it went to 6.5 but now they have a Covid problem on the defensive line and the line has jumped considerably.  So an already bad defense is going to be potentially worse and the Chiefs are absolutely going to torch these guys and love every minute of avenging the early season loss.  The run to the Super Bowl starts Sunday night.