Coming off another hot week going 4/5 the Commish is on fire! Here’s who I’m locking in this week for my Week 6 NFL Predictions.
Tennessee -3.5 over Houston – Last week I called for the Texans to get their first win after getting O’Brien off their back and playing the lowly Jags. But this week they are facing a much different animal. The Titans are, indeed, a very good football team. I have them ranked 5th in offense while Houston is ranked 18th. And on Defense, neither is top caliber but Ten ranked 12th and Houston is ranked 18th. The slight bump in motivation evaporates this week as they hit the road to play the Titans, whose Covid past is in the rear view mirror as they’re more focused than ever and Houston’s deeper problems that lead to an 0-4 start return.
Steelers – 3 over Cleveland – Cleveland taking money all week look has me scratching my head here. Despite them being my team, their defense is soft in the middle and in general, their secondary is quite poor (ranked 17th) I have the Steelers defense ranked 7th overall and their offense 13th versus Cleveland 14th. Here’s what’s going on here, the Browns are overrated. Baker is a bit banged up with the ribs and the offensive guard Teller is OUT. Great matchup for the Steelers in so many ways. Steelers are at home, they always beat up on Cleveland. I’m still shocked this line went to three after opening at 5 instead of going to 7 and believe strongly they can cover this number. I would get it before it likely goes to 3.5 before game time.
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Baltimore – 7.5 over Eagles – Jeez. I have the Eagles ranked 22nd in the league and Baltimore is 3rd. On the offensive side, Baltimore a bit underranked at 17th but Philly is a really ugly 29th. How on earth are the Eagles going to stop this team with four running backs coming downhill at them and Wentz making boneheaded plays. I suppose if Philly gets out to a hot start there’s a chance but would you bet on that happening after what we’ve seen this year? I love the Ravens here.
Cincinnati +9.5 over Indy – Two bad offenses here but I do think Cincy is better than their numbers reflect. Indy, on the other hand, has to deal with a drunk skipper as Rivers continues to baffle with bad decisions on a weekly basis. Last week’s outing in Cleveland being the latest example when you throw a pick six on a five yard out. Now we have the Colts laying a big number and back door Burrow is primed to come right in here and hang around till the end and possibly win the game. The Colt defense being ranked #2 is not lost on me but from what I’ve seen from Cincy they can pretty much hang around with anyone not named Baltimore.
Green Bay – 1 over Tampa – Wait one second here. HOW can the Packers only be laying 1 here. When this came out at 2.5 I was certain it would go to 3 and I would have to make a decision on whether to take that three or not, but here we are. Aaron Rogers is having an MVP type season and I don’t see how they don’t win this game. Tampa doesn’t have the defense to stop this. And even if Tampa has a good day and stays punch for punch with the Packers, they don’t have the running game to salting it away. And Brady has had some Rivers-esq type picks this season. The Packers are coming off a bye mind you, and yet they still are getting disrespected here. But I just don’t see them coming off a bye and laying an egg. Just click the bet at worst you’ll be in a shoot out and have a chance at the end and a best you win easy. There’s still value in these Packers lines and this week may be the end of it.
49ers + 3 over LA Rams – Jimmy G looked horrible last week and knocked me out of my survivor pool. But you need to have a short memory to play in this league and gambling on these games. Throw the Miami game out, they came in here and caught this team completely unprepared. But the Rams have real issues on offense and defense. And the 49ers have a good matchup here against this defense. The Rams have studs and bums on defense. Donald and Ramsey and a bunch of no-names. There are questions on how well Goff can perform against any pressure, which there will be this Sunday. In fact, based on what happened last week the 49ers will be hyper focused. And this is the fourth week out of five that the Rams will have traveled and it’s not quick trips to Vegas and Phoenix, it’s been back and forth to the East Coast during a Pandemic.
Dallas + 2 over Arizona – Imagine this. The Dallas Cowboys losing Dak Prescott is not the most significant injury in this game. That’s because Chandler Jones is out for Arizona and he’s arguably the best pass rusher in the NFL and without him the Arizona defense has completely lost it’s leader and teeth. Now they’ll have to face a five headed monster with Zeke, Lamb, Cooper, Gallup and Shultz. Yes, Andy Dalton is eh and will not dazzle like Dak would have in this game but a slight home dog playing Arizona coming off three straight road games will have Dallas licking their chops. Not to mention the added inspiration of “Winning this one for Dak”.
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