WGC Mexico Championship Preview and Prediction

The west coast swing of the 2019 PGA Tour season is in the books.  And before heading to the Florida swing, the PGA Tour takes a brief trip south of the border this week for the WGC-Mexico Championship at Club de Golf Chapultepec in Mexico City. Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas are the  odds on favorites to win this week at 10 to 1.

Johnson finished tied for ninth this past week at the Genesis Open.  And his last win came at the Saudi International on the European Tour earlier this month. DJ hasn’t won on the PGA Tour since the RBC Canadian Open this past July, but he did win twice in Mexico in 2015 and 2017.  I’m thinking at least a top five is in store for him this week.

Meanwhile, Justin Thomas is coming off a second-place (collapse) finish to J.B. Holmes at Riviera Country Club this past week. Thomas’ last win on Tour came at a WGC event, when he captured the Bridgestone Invitational this past August.   He certainly will have redemption on his mind this week.

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Stalking right behind JT and DJ is Rory McIlroy who is currently at 12/1.   I still consider him to be the most dangerous man in golf… when his putter is on.  If the flat stick is working this week, look out field and I like these odds.  Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau are right behind him at 16/1 odds to win. Rahm also finished tied for ninth this past week at Riviera, while his last win came at the Hero World Challenge this past December. DeChambeau finished tied for 15th at the Genesis this past week, and he has not won on Tour since the Shriners Hospital for Children Open this past November. His most recent victory came on the European Tour at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic last month.

A few other notables.  At 18/1 odds to win this week is Rickie Fowler, who last appeared on Tour when he won the Waste Management Phoenix Open earlier this month.  He’ll certainly be playing loose this week.  And he’s loose even when he hasn’t just won.

Both Tiger Woods and Brooks Koepka close out the top eight with 20/1 odds to win. Tiger has won the event seven times in his career, but he hasn’t been victorious in Mexico since 2013. He comes in after finishing tied for 15th at Riviera this past week, and the 43-year-old is looking for his first win since capturing the Tour Championship this past September.

Koepka last appeared on the Tour in January at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, where he finished 24th. He hasn’t won on the Tour since his victory at the CJ Cup this past October.  It’s already feeling like a typical Brooks Koepka type year.  Don’t play often.  Don’t finish high in regular tournaments.  And then show up in a big way at the Majors.

Below is a list of the latest betting odds for the event.  WGC-Mexico Championship Betting Odds from DraftKings.com.  Bet on all the matchups and get a 500 dollar free bet if you’re a first time customer!

Dustin Johnson-10/1
Justin Thomas-10/1
Rory McIlroy-12/1
Jon Rahm-16/1
Bryson DeChambeau-16/1
Rickie Fowler-18/1
Brooks Koepka-20/1
Tiger Woods-20/1
Xander Schauffele-25/1
Tony Finau-25/1
Hideki Matsuyama-25/1
Jordan Spieth-30/1
Phil Mickelson-30/1
Marc Leishman-30/1
Tommy Fleetwood-30/1
Paul Casey-30/1
Patrick Cantlay-30/1
Webb Simpson-30/1
Gary Woodland-40/1
Bubba Watson-40/1
Sergio Garcia-40/1
Francesco Molinari-50/1
Matt Kuchar-50/1
Patrick Reed-50/1
Rafael Cabrera Bello-50/1
Cameron Smith-50/1
Charles Howell III-50/1
Ian Poulter-50/1
Haotong Li-60/1
Henrik Stenson-60/1
Louis Oosthuizen-60/1
Tyrrell Hatton-60/1
Alex Noren-80/1
Byeong Hun An-80/1
Matt Wallace-80/1
Shane Lowry-80/1
Matthew Fitzpatrick-80/1
Lee Westwood-80/1
Billy Horschel-80/1
Russell Knox-80/1
Branden Grace-100/1
Thorbjorn Olesen-100/1
Joost Luiten-100/1
Keegan Bradley-100/1
Kevin Kisner-100/1
Emiliano Grillo-80/1
Chez Reavie-100/1
Tom Lewis-100/1
Abraham Ancer-125/1
Kevin Na-125/1
Andrew Putnam-125/1
Aaron Wise-125/1
Danny Willett-125/1
Lucas Bjerregaard-150/1
Eddie Pepperell-150/1
Patton Kizzire-150/1
Kiradech Aphibarnrat-150/1
Shubhankar Sharma-150/1
Aaron Rai-150/1
Kyle Stanley-200/1
Alexander Bjork-200/1
Shugo Imahira-250/1
David Lipsky-250/1
Richard Sterne-250/1
Erik Van Rooyen-300/1
George Coetzee-300/1
Satoshi Kodaira-300/1
Sanghyun Park-300/1
Jake McLeod-300/1
Shaun Norris-300/1
Matthew Millar-300/1
Adrian Otaegui-250/1

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Greg Norton is a senior golf analyst for Wannamakeabet.com

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