And then there were eight. After a dramatic weekend in the Wildcard round at Wannamakeabet.com, we’re ready for the rested bye-weekers to take the field. It’s time for the AFC and NFC Divisional round of the 2018 NFL Playoffs. I had another solid outing last week going 3 of 4 and fortunately was on the right side of the Dallas bad beat. The sports betting gods giveth and they taketh away and last week they gave to the Kincaid family. Ok. I’m ready to fire in my action for the NFL divisional playoffs and here are my predictions against the spread for all the games.
First Game: Feeling Lucky Out West?
Chiefs (-5 and O/U 57) vs. Colts Saturday: 4:35 p.m. ET (NBC)
Quarterbacks making their first playoff start went 0-3 (Mitchell Trubisky, Lamar Jackson, and Deshaun Watson) during Wild Card Weekend. That leaves Patrick Mahomes as the final quarterback to make his first postseason start. Will he follow suit and lay an egg to start the weekend in our first game?
Unlikely. He’s a step up in class compared to the others on the list as he just became the second quarterback in NFL history to throw for at least 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns in a single season.
I love what Andrew Luck, Frank Reich, and the Colts have done this season. They’ve now won 10 out of their past 11 games. But some are questioning the quality of the Colts opponents. I’m not one of them. Every single game in the NFL is hard to win. That said, the Chiefs are the league’s best team in terms of yards per play. Andy Reid is masterful when he’s coming off a bye. But the way I see this game is that yes, the Chiefs have arguably the most potent offense in the league, the Colts have a much better defense. And defense wins games and championships.
I know Tyreek Hill and Kelce are going to get loose and drive and score. But they will miss Kareem Hunt. In general, I see Mahomes as a quarterback similar to Deshaun Watson. Incredibly athletic and “wing it” type of QB who makes great plays more than he makes great decisions when the pressure is really on. Bottom line, I’m taking the Colts +5.5 in this game. And Perhaps add a teaser to get you through the key number of 10.
2nd Game: How Bout Them Cowboys
Dallas +7 O/U 49.5 at Los Angeles Rams
The only prime time game of the weekend and it’s a gem. The Cowboys already earned one of the biggest upsets of the season in November when they ended the Saints’ 10-game winning streak with a surprising 13-10 victory that established Dallas as a contender. And at the time nobody was a clear favorite to win the NFC East. Now, less than two months later, can the Boys pull off another mammoth upset, this time against the Rams in Los Angeles, with a trip to the NFC title game at stake?
The Cowboys are seven-point underdogs at WANNA, which is strange considering the Rams went 13-3 with a plus-143 point differential, finished the season ranked second in DVOA, should be well rested after a first-round bye, and are playing a team that (barely) went 10-6.
But the Cowboys have the formula to beat the Rams. They run the ball and the Rams struggle to stop the run. And this may be the single most important thing to consider when betting this game.
Including Saturday’s win over the Seahawks, during which they rushed for 164 yards, the Cowboys are averaging 125.1 rushing yards. In 16 games (15 regular-season and one playoff game), running back Ezekiel Elliott has 1,571 yards on 330 carries for an average of 4.8 yards per carry. In 17 games, quarterback Dak Prescott has rushed for 334 yards and seven touchdowns. The Rams, meanwhile, finished the regular season ranked 28th against the run, 23rd in rushing yards allowed, and dead last in yards allowed per carry. Did you read that? Dead last against one of the best running teams in the league. Not good.
None of this means the Cowboys will actually win on Saturday. The Rams are an incredible team that still got to 13 wins even through a late-season slump. Sean McVay is a better coach than Jason Garrett. Goff has been better than Prescott over the past two seasons. And Donald might be the best defensive player in football without factoring in positional value.
But I think the Cowboys are more than capable of hanging around and giving themselves a shot at the upset here. They are starting to believe they are great. And they have the pedigree and the fan base that will travel well for this game. The Rams have not been dominant enough against quality opponents to make me believe they can cover the 7 here. Take Dallas +7.
All Roads Go Through New England
Chargers (+4 O/U 45) at Patriots Sunday: 1:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
The history of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady is daunting. If you want to ignore the past two decades and focus on just this season, fine. The Chargers are the better team from top to bottom this year. The Chargers won more games, and rank ahead of them in every possible category. The Chargers won the same number of games as the Chiefs. And if the playoffs were seeded more fairly, the Chargers wouldn’t be traveling for the second straight road playoff game.
But none of that matters. They are going up against Belichick and Brady. And for all of the Patriots’ struggles this season, they still won 11 games. Brady threw for 4,355 yards and 29 touchdowns in a down year. The Patriots might not be the near-unbeatable team they were over the past couple of seasons, but there’s still plenty of tank left in the tank. And they always seem to find a way.
History does matter, don’t get me wrong. But right now the Chargers are the better team. They’re the most complete team in the AFC. Rivers is playing better than Brady. The defense — with Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa up front — is good enough to get after Brady and bother him. We just saw them stuff the Ravens’ vaunted running game. We just saw them win and cover on the road.
So why on earth am I picking the Patriots to win and cover this game? Because I’ve learned a few things over the past ten or 15 years. They’re nearly unbeatable at home. They know how to game plan. And not to sound like a conspiracy theorist but the refs just seem to give them calls. Do you think that will change this year? Maybe, but not until they have to go on the road(next week). Everyone is so high the Chargers right now, with almost absolute certainty across social and traditional media that they are going to march into New England and win this game. But they won’t. They’ll turn the ball over. They’ll make mistakes. And they have to play an absolutely perfect game to win on Sunday. New England will capitalize like they always do. New England wins and covers and actually ruins all the teasers while they’re at it. If you had to pick one game this entire weekend that will not go as expected, I believe this is it.
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Philly Magic in the Big Easy?
Saints (-8 O/U 50.5) vs. Eagles Sunday: 4:40 p.m. ET (Fox)
I know the legend of Nick Foles says the Eagles will go into New Orleans and stun the Saints, but I’m not a big believer in legends. The Eagles are only alive because the Bears couldn’t get the ball into the endzone despite having countless opportunities and dominating the stat sheet. But the Bears are not the Saints. And Mitchell Trubisky is not Drew Brees.
For one, the Saints won 13 games. Michael Thomas caught 125 of his 147 targets this season for 1,405 yards and nine touchdowns. Alvin Kamara hasn’t been talked about as much as he was a year ago, but he finished with 1,592 yards and 18 touchdowns, both of which beat the marks he hit last season. For as much as we’ve been talking about the Saints’ decreased offensive production at the end of the season, maybe we should be talking more about their defense down the stretch, which played out of their minds.
But with all that said, I cannot get myself to like the Saints enough laying this kind of number. I don’t think the Saints will lay an egg and lose this game, but it’s entirely possible that they could get behind and have to rally to come back. It’s so damn hard to win in this league, even on a regular Sunday, much less knocking off the Super Bowl champs who are playing great football right now with their MVP QB back in the saddle. And it’s even harder to win by more than a touchdown. I can see it now. The best case scenario is that the Saints will have the game well in hand with a 10 point lead late in the game. They’ll proceed to let the Eagles drive down the field and score a meaningless touchdown to get the cover Take the Eagles +8 and enjoy getting more than a TD in a game of this magnitude.
That’s a wrap for our NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions Against The Spread. Good luck with all your selections at Wannamakeabet.com and don’t forget to get into this year’s NFL Playoff League.
Jack Kincaid is a senior NFL analyst for Wannamakeabet.com