Last week was a wash. The commish went 4-4 in his predictions for this column and that didn’t include the juice. I’ll make it back this week.. Now we’re ready for the college football predictions against the spread for the first weekend of October.
The commish is a Buckeye fan, and luckily he was camping with his daughter and didn’t have to deal with the stress of being down by 12 with 4 minutes to play against Penn State Saturday night. The win and no cover (27-26) was the perfect solution to get the prediction right and still stay in the National Championship conversation. But enough about Ohio State. There are other teams playing college football despite what the Commish roots for.
Let’s move our attention to this week. Some decent matchups as three of the top 25 are in action against each other. Below are most of the key top 25 matchups and predictions for each.
#1 Alabama (-34.5) over Arkansas. The Hogs are being outscored 44-17 in the first quarter this season and yes, Bama could easily do that to them and almost anyone else. But the last two against each other in Fayetteville have been decided by 10 points or less. I mean, come on Hogs, have some respect for yourselves. I like Arkansas to cover the monster number at home.
#7 Oklahoma (-7.5) at #19 Texas. Wow, talk about a sharp line. This game will likely land on the number based on past scores between the two. Take the points and cross your fingers that the Longhorns can stay in the game until the end.
Kansas at #9 West Virginia (28.5) – Blowout. Mounties just hammer Kansas and win by 42. Major difference in class.
Northwestern +11 at #20 Michigan State. Despite blowing the game against Michigan last week, Northwestern comes into this game tuned up and capable of not only hanging in there against the Spartans but possibly getting a big win. They just need to protect the QB better than last week and they can be there at the end. Classic big ten rivalry with too much at stake to lay this much wood for the Spartans.
#5 LSU (-2.5) at #22 Florida – The Tigers have won the last two meetings in the Swamp, but both games were decided by three points or less. This is Joe Burrow’s next big road test before the schedule really gets tough, and we expect the same tight contest. If Feleipe Franks doesn’t turn the ball over, then we have a feeling the Gators throw the next wrench in the SEC race. Florida wins at the buzzer.
Florida State at #17 Miami (-12.5) This used to be the game. Oh how things have changed. FSU is getting blown out by teams named Syracuse these days. Miami has taken control of the series, and the Hurricanes looked downright nasty against North Carolina. Still, it’s a rivalry and the Seminoles have the talent to hang around. The big question is whether Florida State — which has turned the ball over every game this year, including two games with at least four — avoid those big mistakes. We think Miami lays the wood. FSU just lacks the talent and discipline for it to be interesting for 4 quarters.
Indiana at #5 Ohio State (-25) We all know what happened to Ohio State the week after last year’s big win against Penn State. Iowa kicked their ass. Expect Urban Meyer to use that Iowa loss as a carrot for the Buckeyes, who are at home against an improved Indiana team. The Hoosiers haven’t won at Ohio Stadium since 1987. That streak will continue over the course of 4 quarters. Ohio State wins huge 49-14.
#8 Auburn (-3) at Mississippi State The Tigers have won the last two meetings by an average of 31.5 points, and they face a Bulldogs team coming off back-to-back demoralizing losses. Here comes three in a row as they continue to stink it up against one of the best. Tigers win easy.
Vandy at #2 Georgia (-26.5). Georgia continues to win in robotic fashion, a trend that will continue against the Commodores. Georgia has won its last three games against Vanderbilt by an average of 25 points but has failed to cover the last two weeks. This time, they buck the trend. Georgia wins by 28 at home and covers the number.
#6 Notre Dame (-5.5) at Va Tech This is the biggest remaining spotlight of the season for the Irish, and they’ll do it in unfamiliar territory against the Hokies, who bounced back from their loss to Old Dominion in a romp over then-ranked Duke. This is a dog fight right to the bitter end. Notre Dame might get the win, but it won’t be easy.
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