Books have been taking pretty consistent money on the Eagles since the SuperBowl line opened -6 on Championship Sunday.
by Sean Zerillo – Wannamakeabet Staff Writer
Multiple properties around Vegas have large liabilities on Philadelphia. Three times the money has been wagered on the Eagles at Caesars, and MGM made the news for taking a $3 million wager on Philly from the bettor who won millions correctly predicting the outcomes of each of the first six games of the 2017 World Series.
The Eagles may in fact be the better team – and we will find out on Sunday; but I am in no rush to get to the window to bet against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in their eighth SuperBowl together. This game is an entirely different animal from any other NFL game with a brighter spotlight, extra scrutiny, and longer breaks between the action. The extended halftime alone can throw off your rhythm and momentum, and you can burn off energy too early by being too hyped. I’m not going to bet against the duo who know exactly what to expect moment to moment from a logistical standpoint.
While its no doubt fun to have money riding on the overall outcome or total of the SuperBowl, it’s smarter to look for shaper angles to play based on trends.
My favorite trend heading into this game: THE PATRIOTS HAVE NOT SCORED IN THE FIRST QUARTER IN ANY OF THEIR 7 SUPERBOWLS WITH BELICHICK AND BRADY. Defensively, New England has only given up 5 field goals (and no touchdowns) in those seven first quarters. Four of the seven games finished scoreless after the first period.
The over/under total for the first quarter on Sunday is 9.5. Action has been on the OVER, dropping the juice on the UNDER (-105). Here’s how many points have been scored in the first quarters of every SuperBowl since the year 2000: 0, 10, 0, 8, 10, 9, 14, 10, 3, 3, 20, 3, 0, 0, 6, 3, 7, 3
This is a 13-5 mark against THIS number (9.5) for the UNDER; 7-0 in SuperBowls with both Belichick and Brady and 6-5 without them.
SuperBowls always seem to start out slow offensively, and the numbers bear that out. Scoring picks up in the second quarter, and particularly in the second half.
For the game, I’d lean towards OVER 48 points. Since 2003, the OVER is 27-8 in playoff games played inside of a closed dome. But for the first quarter, I’m betting on a slow start and UNDER 9.5 points.
OFFICIAL PICK: 1st Quarter UNDER 9.5 points
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots – SuperBowl LII (Minneapolis, MN) —Sunday 2/4, 6:30 PM (EDT), NBC
Against the Spread: Philadelphia (12-6); New England (12-6)
Open: New England (-6), O/U (47)
Current: New England (-4.5) O/U (48)