By Nicholas Browne – Wannamakeabet.com Senior Writer
Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Detroit Lions (12:30PM)
This one is simple, straight forward, and best bet material. The look ahead line on this game was a pick em. Minnesota dismantles the Rams at home and Detroit takes care of business in Chicago. Subsequently, this line moves a full 3 points. Remember how valuable the move is from 2.5 to 3, meaning this is closer to a 3.5 or 4 point move in terms of true value (see below). At this point, we are getting the Home team with a better QB AND 3 points to play with. Score 1 for Detroit. Additionally, the sharps are on our side. Detroit at this point accounts for 40% of the tickets, yet 67% of the total cash ($81K, 537 Tickets). That’s a 27pt spread. The big dogs are with us, and the Joes are against us. I’m comfortable with that. Book this one before the market moves, and enjoy a winning ticket with your Thanksgiving Hors d’oeuvres.
Lions Win: 24 – 17
The above chart demonstrates the cost of buying a ½ point, on average. Simply put, if you were getting +1.5 points laying -110 (ten cents), and bought a ½ point to get up to +2, you would pay an extra nickel (5 cents from -110 to -115). Same cost from +2.5 to +3, fork over another nickel. Now if we want to buy the extra ½ point from +2.5 to +3, Vegas is making us pay a bit more. The line goes from +2.5 -120 to +3 -145. That’s a 25 cent charge, sir (or ma’am). Luckily, in this game, the market paid our way and we get the +3 “on sale.” Must be a Turkey Day special….
Los Angeles Chargers (-1) at Dallas Cowboys
This game is in a similar category, though I may personally take the leap and call it an absurd reaction. I know Dallas has been blown out each of the last two weeks. I know the Chargers are the new bandwagon AFC team after crushing poor Nate Peterman and the confused Bills. The look ahead line on this game was Dallas -4! Need I say more? Tryon Smith at this point in the week is projected to start on Thursday. I won’t speculate how many points a star Left Tackle is worth above replacement, but I’d bet my bankroll it ain’t close to negative 5 points. How about another Pros vs Joes game? 50% of the tickets on the Cowboys and 68% of the cash. That’s an 18pt spread. A strong indication that the larger, sharper action of the $70K is fading Mr. Rivers in what is projected to be a close game.
Cowboys Win: 28 – 20
New York Giants (+7) at Washington Redskins
As a Giants fan, this team make me sick. They just crushed so many Survivor Pool, Parlay card, and Moneyline dreams (including mine). Not to mention we have worse odds to get a true Franchise QB in the upcoming draft. I may never recover emotionally. I should note this has nothing to do with my handicap, but it was a rough Sunday….let me vent.
Unfortunately, I am recommending to pick the Giants. The data is in their favor. The Redskins lose a key piece of their volatile offense (RB Chris Thompson) during an absolutely crushing OT loss to the Saints. Expect a low score after a short week in which these two teams just played competitive, physical games. That makes these 7 points that much more valuable. Finally, the Giants have won over the sharps in recent weeks due to consistently getting a TD or more. 19% of the tickets, and 68% of the cash ride on the Giants. That’s the largest spread of any of the three games. The sharps were on the right side with the G-men last week. I guess we’ll trust them here.
Redskins Win: 17 – 13
YTD Record: 3 – 3 (50%)
Week 10: 2 – 1
Week 11: 1 – 2
Shout-out to Pregame.com for free access to the Sportsbook Consensus in the Game Center