By Nicholas Browne – NFL Senior Writer
Baltimore Ravens (-2) at Green Bay Packers
You don’t need a marquee matchup to find value. The Baltimore Ravens are coming off a bye, still very much in the AFC Wildcard race at 4-5 (4-4-1 ATS). Green Bay is coming off a win with a healthy 5-4 record (4-5 ATS) in the wide open NFC, however no one believes Hundley will lead the Packers to the playoffs. Since Harbaugh took over in 2008, the Ravens are 7-3 ATS coming off a bye. During this time, the Ravens with an extra week of rest are second in the NFL in straight up margin of victory (+9.5) and ATS differential (+6.7). One more trend to support this one – Road Favorites off a bye week. Since 2011, Road favorites off a bye are 61 – 23 ATS (73%). We have two trends favoring the Ravens at +70%. Take the Ravens who have been focusing on the Rodgers-less Packers for 14 days now.
Ravens Win: 24 – 20
Kansas City Chiefs (-11) at New York Giants
For many of the same reasons we like Baltimore, KC is the pick here. How can laying 11 points on the road be a sharp position? Andy Reid. Coming off a bye, Andy Reid is 13 – 5 against the spread (72%). It would be fair to say in 2017, though, that this is public information. This may be the most widely known trend in all of football. Translation: Vegas is pricing Reid’s incredible success following a bye into the line. Do not be discouraged! Let us not forget our Road Favorites trend. Another game with two +70% trends on our side. Take the rested, focused Chiefs against the G-Men who appear to have quit on their Lame-Duck coach (looking at you Landon Collins).
Chiefs Win: 35 – 17
Philadelphia Eagles (-5) at Dallas Cowboys
This is a buyer-beware game. I’ve just laid out two games urging you to pick Road Favorites off a bye. Why not pick arguably the best team in the NFL, who is in the same spot, coming off a bye as a favorite on the road? Line value. This game opened with the Eagles as a -3.5 favorite. With the Pros and the Joes pounding Phili, the line has shifted a full 1.5pts. You might say, “The Cowboys are missing their top 3 players! They just got crushed by Atlanta!” This is true. The Cowboys will likely be missing their star MLB and LT in this game, and of course, no Zeke. The Eagles are rested and focused, just like the Chiefs and Ravens. Because of how significantly this line has moved, and the fact that this is essentially a must-win divisional game for the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football, I’d heavily advise to stay away from this one. To be more prescriptive, do not bet the Cowboys either.
Eagles Win: 31 – 28
Atlanta Falcons (+3) at Seattle Seahawks
What if I told you that Atlanta was the #3 team in Net Yards Per Play (Difference between Offensive and Defensive Yards Per Play: 6.1)? Would you believe me? The public has not loved these Falcons because Turnovers and Red Zone struggles have resulted in ATS losses (3-6 ATS). Given Turnovers and Red Zone success is more random than not, coming off a huge win against Dallas, the logical position would be to take the 3 points with Atlanta, right? Wrong. The public has finally bought into Atlanta! With 64% of the tickets on the Falcons, but only 34% of the total cash, Seattle is the sharp position. If that’s not enough for you, Seattle as a favorite of less than 3 points at home is 56% ATS since 2008. That’s good enough to beat the vig. Expect Seattle to respond with an emotional Monday night victory at home, dedicated to their wounded warrior, Richard Sherman.
Seahawks Win: 28 – 24