NBA Picks 10/21 – Timberwolves @ Heat

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

Opening week of the 2026-27 NBA season continues tonight with an intriguing matchup of teams that each added what could be franchise-changing players, as the Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33 last season) begin the season visiting the Miami Heat (43-39 last season) at Kaseya Center on ESPN. This will be the first of two regular season meetings between the Timberwolves and Heat. They’ll play for a final time on Feb. 6 in Minnesota. The Timberwolves have won five of the last six against the Heat dating back to October 2023. 

Miami is a 1.5-point favorite and the total is 242.5.

BOTH TEAMS MADE A SIGNIFICANT ADDITION IN THE OFFSEASON

During an eventful NBA offseason where a number of big-name, superstar players (Jaylen Brown, Anthony Davis, LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, Ja Morant) changed teams, Miami or Minnesota may end up making the most impactful move of the offseason depending on how the season goes.

The Minnesota Timberwolves acquired talented, 25-year-old point guard LaMelo Ball from the Charlotte Hornets, while Miami traded for 31-year-old, 10-time All-Star, two-time NBA MVP and 2021 NBA Finals MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. Both teams made these additions with championship aspirations in mind. We’ll see how it works out for them over the next 82 games and roughly 6 months. 

2026-2027 Season Outlook: MINNESOTA

Led by the splendid play of superstar Anthony Edwards, the Minnesota Timberwolves have experienced an unprecedented level of success over the previous three seasons, in terms of their franchise history. They’ve won at least 49 games in each of the last three seasons and advanced to back-to-back Western Conference Finals in 2024 and 2025. 

To put things into proper perspective, Minnesota won 5 playoff series over the last 3 seasons. They won a total of 3 playoff seasons in their previous 34 years of existence from 1990-2023, which indicates how bad the franchise had been prior to their recent run of postseason success.

Over the last two years, Minnesota’s postseason was ended by conference powers Oklahoma City (2024) and San Antonio (2025). With both Oklahoma City and San Antonio built to be dominant for the foreseeable future, Minnesota’s management made the tough decision to break up the productive core they built around Anthony Edwards. Minnesota jettisoned forward Julius Randle, sharpshooting sixth man Naz Reid and a future first-round pick in separate deals to acquire star point guard LaMelo Ball. 

LaMelo Ball comes to Minnesota after compiling six tremendous seasons with the Charlotte Hornets, who selected him third overall in the 2020 NBA draft. Ball was named the 2020-21 NBA Rookie of the Year, and has averaged at least 20.1 points, 7.1 assists, 4.8 rebounds and 1.2 steals in each of the last 5 seasons. Ball was plagued by injuries during his six-year tenure in Charlotte, as he endured a tough three-year stretch (2023-2025) when he never played in more than 47 games in any of those seasons.

LaMelo Ball did participate in 72 games last year, which played a big role in Charlotte registering a surprising 44-38 record a year ago, its most wins since the 2015-16 season (48-34). Minnesota is hoping a healthy Ball translates to a better record for them this season. Ball and Anthony Edwards also have a close friendship that goes back years as they were both in the high school class of 2019, and a part of the 2020 NBA draft. Edwards was the No. 1 overall pick, while Ball was the No. 3 overall pick in the 2020 draft. 

In addition to the dynamic duo of Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball, Minnesota returns a terrific trio in versatile, swingman Jaden McDaniels (14.8 pts, 4.2 rebs, 1.1 stls, 1.0 blks, 51.5% from 2, 41.2% from 3 last yr), combo guard Ayo Dosunmu (14.2 pts, 4.2 rebs, 52.1% from 2, 41.4% from 3)and disruptive, 7-foot-1 center Rudy Gobert (10.9 pts, 11.5 rebs, 1.6 blks, 68.2% from 2). All three players compliment Edwards and Ball very well.

Sharpshooter Donte DiVincenzo (12.2 pts, 3 threes) is expected to return at some point this season after rupturing his Achilles against Denver in the first round of the playoffs in late-April. DiVincenzo’s absence likely played a role in their 4-2 loss to Oklahoma City in the Conference Semifinals. 

2026-27 Season Outlook: MIAMI HEAT

Hall of Fame coach Pat Riley has been associated with the Miami Heat franchise as a head coach or team president since 1995. Over the past 30 seasons, Riley has developed what is affectionately known as ‘Heat Culture’. which is built on extreme conditioning, discipline, accountability and unselfish play. Riley delivered the franchise’s first NBA Championship in 2006 when he served as the team’s head coach. He served as team president when they won two more titles in 2012 and 2013. 

Franchise stalwarts like Alonzo Mourning, Udonis Haslem, Dwayne Wade and Jimmy Butler III, along with Shaquille O’Neal and LeBron James embodied ‘Heat Cutlure’ as players during Pat Riley’s 30-year tenure. Mourning and Haslem currently occupy front office position with the Heat, alongside Pat Riley.

Unfortunately, ‘Heat Culture’ has dissipated over the last three seasons since Jimmy Butler III led Miami to a miraculous run to the 2023 NBA Finals as the No. 8 seed. After making the NBA Finals in 2023, Miami suffered back-to-back first-round losses in 2024 and 2025, and failed to make the playoffs entirely last year.

Miami’s lack of success over the last three seasons prompted Pat Riley to make a drastic change. And that change was acquiring superstar forward Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Heat traded Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kel’el Ware and Kasparas Jakucionis, along with 3 first-round picks to Milwaukee for Giannis and Bobby Portis. 

The 31-year-old Giannis Antetokounmpo amassed a stellar 13-year career with Milwaukee where he was a 10-time All-Star, 2-time NBA MVP and 2021 NBA Finals MVP.  He led Milwaukee to its first NBA title in 50 years in 2021. Injuries for Giannis and a diminished supporting cast led to Milwaukee’s decline since winning the title in 2021. The Bucks have won only one playoff series in the 5 seasons since capturing the title, which led to Giannis becoming expendable. 

Miami is hoping Giannis can stay healthy because he still appears to be an MVP-caliber player at age 31. He averaged 27.6 points, 9.8 rebounds, 5.4 assists, while shooting 62.4 percent from the floor in just 36 games last year. But he averaged about 30 points, 12 rebounds 1 block and 1 steal while shooting 60 percent from the floor over the previous 4 seasons (2021-2025) when he played 63 or more games. 

Three-time All-Star and six-time All-Defensive player Bam Adebayo will be counted on to be Robin to Giannis’ Batman. The 29-year-old Kentucky product averaged 20.1 points, 10 rebounds, 1.7 steals and 1.7 threes per game across 73 contests last season in year 9. Last season, Adebayo scored a whopping 83 points against the Wizards at home in March. It was the second-highest scoring effort in NBA history. Miami could really thrive this year with Adebayo being in a similar secondary role that he was in when Jimmy Butler III was leading the team.

A trio of newcomers in veteran sharpshooter Klay Thompson (11.7 pts 2.9 threes last yr), stretch big man Bobby Portis Jr. (13.7 pts, 6.4 rebs, 2 threes, 48.8% from 2, 45.6% from 3), 34-year-old veteran swingman Tim Hardaway Jr. (13.5 pts, 2.8 threes, 40.7% from 3) and holdover Andrew Wiggins (15.4 pts, 4.8 rebs, 2.2 threes) should provide a solid foundation around Miami’s Big 2 of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo.

Tim Hardaway Jr. joining the Heat this year is a feel-good story because his father, Hall of Famer Tim Hardaway Sr., starred for the Heat from 1996-2001 during his 13-year, NBA career. Hardaway Sr. allowed his son to wear his No. 10 retired jersey this season. 

THE PICK: TIMBERWOLVES (+1.5)

Despite the addition of an MVP-caliber player in Giannis Antetokounmpo, I think it will take some time for him to get acclimated with his new teammates. Minnesota has more experienced players returning. Take the Point (s) and the Timberwolves tonight.