NBA Playoff Picks 5/24 – Thunder @ Spurs

The Western Conference Finals continue tonight with the top-seeded and defending NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder (64-18 in the regular season) visiting the second-seeded San Antonio Spurs (62-20) in Game Four at Frost Bank Center on NBC. The Thunder took a 2-1 lead after picking up a 123-108 victory at San Antonio in Game Three on Friday night. Oklahoma City is now 5-0 on the road in the playoffs.

The Thunder and Spurs finished with the best two records in the NBA during the regular season which leads some to believe that the winner of this series will go on the win the NBA title.

San Antonio is a 2.5-point favorite and the total is 218.5.

The Spurs-Thunder series was one of the most-anticipated playoff matchups in recent NBA history after both teams quickly established themselves as the cream of the crop in the NBA at an early point of the season. Oklahoma City came into the season with a lot of hype because they returned essentially the same team that won the title last year. The Thunder also got off to a historic 24-1 start.

San Antonio defeated Oklahoma City three times in the month of December, which heightened their expectations and put the rest of the NBA on notice that they were no longer pushovers. The Spurs would go on to finish 4-1 against the defending champion Thunder during the regular season. San Antonio handed Oklahoma City 4 of their 18 regular season losses. The exceptional play of Victor Wembanyama in year three also contributed San Antonio’s hype.

The Spurs and Thunder would go on to dominate the rest of the NBA during the regular season and the playoffs which set up an “irresistible force meeting an immovable object” battle in the Western Conference Finals. The fact that Oklahoma City was undefeated (8-0) heading into the Conference Finals, while San Antonio was undefeated (6-0) when Victor Wembanyama started and finished a postseason game added more suspense to the matchup.

San Antonio’s two playoff losses occurred when Victor Wembanyama suffered a concussion in the second quarter of Game 2 (a 106-103 loss) against Portland in the first round and was unable to return to the game. Their second playoff loss took place when Wembanyma was ejected early in the second quarter of Game 4 (a 114-109 loss) at Minnesota. He was ejected for elbowing Naz Reid in the neck.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was named the NBA’s Most Valuable Player the day before (May 17) Game One of the Western Conference Finals. He won the MVP award for a second straight year, becoming the 14th player in NBA history to do it. Gilgeous-Alexander was presented the MVP trophy in an on-court ceremony prior to the opening tip of Game One.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 31.1 points, 6.6 assists, 4.3 rebounds, 1.4 steals and 1.7 steals per game on 55.3 percent shooting from the floor across 68 regular season games. He’s averaged at least 30 ppg in each of the last four seasons. He joined Michael Jordan as the only guards in NBA history to average 30+ ppg and shoot over 50% from the floor in 4 consecutive seasons.

The rest vs. rust theory would be tested in the series opener as Oklahoma City had exactly one week off after sweeping the fourth-seeded Los Angeles Lakers in the Conference Semifinals, while San Antonio had just 3 days off after they eliminated sixth-seeded Minnesota.

Oklahoma City was a (-260) favorite to win the series against San Antonio.

The series began on what looked to be an ominous note for San Antonio when it was announced that star guard De’Aaron Fox would miss Game One due to a right ankle sprain. He originally suffered the injury against Minnesota in Game 4 of the Conference Semifinals but was able to play Games 5 and 6. Fox was averaging 18.8 points and 5.8 assists per game in 11 playoff games.

Game One tipped off six days ago (May 18) and it lived up to the advanced billing as Victor Wembanyama’s dominance powered the Spurs to a 122-115 double overtime victory. Wembanyama amassed 41 points (14-25 FG, 1-2 3Pt, 12-13 FT), a career-high 24 rebounds and 3 blocks across 49 minutes in the win.

Victor Wembanyma dominated San Antonio from start to finish as Oklahoma City could not do anything to contain the 7-foot-4 phenom. The Thunder even put 6-foot-5 defensive ace Alex Caruso on Wembanyama late in the game. Despite the glaring size difference, Caruso was very physical with Wembanayama before he could post up in the paint and receive entry passes.

In addition to dominating the entire 58-minute, double-overtime game, Victor Wembanyama made clutch baskets at the end of regulation, and at the end of each overtime. Wembanyama’s three-pointer with 11.5 seconds left in regulation gave San Antonio a 101-99, before Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tied the game at 101 with 3.1 seconds left. His three-pointer with 27 seconds left in the first overtime tied the game and forced the second overtime. Wembanyama finished off the Thunder by scoring 9 of San Antonio’s 14 points in the second overtime.

Victor Wembanyama became the youngest player (22 years, 134 days) in NBA history to finish with at least 40 points and 20 rebounds in a playoff game. He surpassed Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (22 years, 343 days) who had a 40/20 game in the 1970 NBA Finals. It’s been speculated that Wembanyama seeing the MVP trophy awarded to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander before the game inspired his astonishing performance in Game One.

Standout rookie Dylan Harper — who started in place of De’Aaron Fox — registered 24 points (8-20 FG, 1-7 3Pt, 7-7 FT), 11 rebounds, 6 assists and a career-high 7 steals for San Antonio in the Game One victory. Second-year star Stephon Castle finished with a double-double of 17 points and 11 assists, but committed 11 turnovers for the Spurs.

Alex Caruso led Oklahoma City with a career-high 31 points (11-19 FG, 8-14 3Pt, 1-3 FT) off the bench. Jalen Williams added 26 points in his first game back from a hamstring that sidelined him for the Thunder’s previous 6 games. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander provided 24 points (7-23 FG), 12 assists and 5 steals.

After dropping a tough double-overtime thriller to San Antonio in Game One and having their nine-game playoff winning streak come to an end, the defending champion Thunder rebounded with a 122-113 victory at home in Game Two. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander bounced back from a subpar shooting night in Game 1 to finish with a game-high 30 points (12-24 FG, 6-6 FT) in Game 2.

Oklahoma City’s ability to contain Victor Wembanyama’s scoring after his exceptional performance in the series opener was a big reason for the win. Wembanyama scored 21 points (8-16 FG, 3-7 3Pt, 2-2 FT) in Game 2, and was constantly harassed by Thunder center Isaiah Hartenstein, who was up to the challenge to guard/frustrate Wembanyama. Hartenstein also contributed a double-double on offense, totaling 10 points and 13 rebounds, along with 3 blocks.

The Thunder built an 11-point lead (62-51) at the half. San Antonio pulled to within 72-71 midway through the third quarter before Oklahoma City went up by 8 (96-88) to close the quarter. After San Antonio reduced the deficit to 99-97 with 9:06 remaining in regulation, Oklahoma City went on an 11-0 led by the unexpected foursome of Cason Wallace, Jared McCain, Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein. The Thunder were never challenged after that.

Thunder guard Alex Caruso was terrific off the bench again finishing with 17 points and 5 assists. Oklahoma City’s star guard Jalen Williams exited the game with a hamstring injury in the first quarter after playing just 7 minutes. He’s been plagued by hamstring issues throughout the regular season and postseason.

San Antonio’s talented rookie Dylan Harper suffered a right leg injury with 4:50 remaining in the third quarter and did not return to the game. Second-year star Stephon Castle’s turnover woes continued in Game 2 as he coughed the ball up 9 times. Castle totaled 20 turnovers through the first two games of the series.

The series shifted to San Antonio for Game Three tied at 1. San Antonio welcomed back star point guard De’Aaron Fox for Game 3. Fox missed the first 2 games due to a right ankle sprain. Despite opening the game on a 15-0 run with Fox scoring 6 of those points, San Antonio could not put away Oklahoma City and ended up losing by 15 (123-108). It appeared as if Fox was in store for a huge game, but he cooled off afterwards. Fox also left the game briefly in the third quarter after aggravating the ankle injury. Fox finished with 15 points and 7 assists.

After trailing 15-0, Oklahoma City seized control of the game, outscoring the Spurs 32-20 in the second quarter and taking a 58-51 lead at halftime. The Thunder went ahead by double digits late in the third quarter and maintained that double-digit lead throughout the entire fourth quarter. Jalen Williams missed his seventh playoff game because of his recurring hamstring injury.

Despite another poor shooting night (6-17) from the floor, 2026 MVP Shai Gilgeous Alexander went 12-12 from the line finishing with 24 points and dishing out 12 assists for Oklahoma City in the Game 3 win. In true MVP fashion, Gilgeous-Alexander finds a way to leave his imprint on the game and lead his team to victory even when his shot is not falling. He’s averaging 11 assists per game in the series.

Oklahoma City received another strong performance from its bench in the Game Three victory. The Thunder bench totaled 76 points compared to 47 points for the starters. Jared McCain led the reserves with 24 points, while Jaylin Williams added 18 and Alex Caruso tallied 15. Oklahoma City’s tremendous depth has been too much for San Antonio to overcome over the last 2 games.

Victor Wembanyama scored a team-high 26 points for San Antonio but only mustered 4 rebounds in the loss. After a herculean effort in Game 1 (41 points, 24 rebounds, 3 blocks), he’s been somewhat subdued over the last 2 games due to the presence of the twin tower duo of Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, along with the Thunder’s relentless pressure defense.

For San Antonio, it’s whether Stephon Castle and De’Aaron Fox can increase their production to help out Victor Wembanayama. The tremendous contributions from Castle and Fox during the regular season and first two rounds of the playoffs were big factors in San Antonio’s success. Castle (turnovers/poor shooting) and Fox (ankle injury) need to improve for San Antonio to have any chance of knocking off the defending champs.

For Oklahoma City, their incredible depth and unselfishness is unparalleled. Whether Jalen Williams is in street clothes, or if MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is having a subpar shooting night, the Thunder possess a plethora of unsung players — Jared McCain, Jaylin Williams, Alex Caruso, Ajay Mitchell, Cason Wallace — who are capable of stepping up and producing at a high level.

After dropping the series opener, I think the defending champs are now locked in and are ready to topple the somewhat injury-riddled and inexperienced Spurs. Take the Points and the Thunder tonight!