IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl Picks: Troy @ Jax State

Troy and Jacksonville State renew a long Alabama rivalry in the IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl on Dec. 16, 2025, at the Cramton Bowl in Montgomery. Both teams arrive 8-5 after conference title-game losses, but matchup dynamics — quarterback availability for Troy and a run-heavy Jacksonville State attack — make this a game where the market’s small line should be respected.

Team Analysis

Troy

• Season overview and recent form

– Troy finished the season 8-5 and fell to James Madison 31-14 in the Sun Belt Championship on Dec. 5. – The Trojans have shown offensive flashes (a comeback OT win and strong mid-season passing bursts from Tucker Kilcrease), but consistency was an issue late in the year. Kilcrease earned national weekly honors after a 415-yard, 5-TD performance earlier this season.

• Personnel notes and recent form

– The biggest variable is QB Goose Crowder, who returned from a broken collarbone this season but left the Sun Belt title game with a lower-body injury and has been limited in practice; reports indicate he’s likely unavailable and Kilcrease will start the bowl unless cleared. – Troy will also be without leading rusher Tae Meadows, who is entering the transfer portal and is expected to sit, shifting the ground workload to backups. Offensive line availability (notably Eli Russ) has been spotty.

Jacksonville State

• Season overview and recent form

– Jacksonville State also finished 8-5, falling to Kennesaw State 19-15 in the Conference USA title game. The Gamecocks still posted strong metrics all year and won the C-USA regular season.

• Personnel notes and recent form

– Cam Cook led the FBS in rushing with roughly 1,659 yards and 16 TDs and earned AP All-America recognition; he’s the engine of Jax State’s attack and is listed as expected to play. – Dual-threat QB Caden Creel adds another dimension with high rushing totals (over 1,000 yards on the ground this season) and has been a late-season playmaker. Jacksonville State’s offense is run-first and finishes drives via big-play rushing.

Key Matchup Factors

• Head-to-head history

– This is the 64th meeting overall; the series is one of the oldest in-state rivalries. Troy has won the last seven meetings, but Jacksonville State still holds the all-time edge in the series. The bowl location in Montgomery gives a neutral-but-local feel.

• Important player matchups

– Cam Cook vs. Troy front seven: Troy struggled to stop the run in spots this season (notably giving up big rushing outputs late), and Cook’s consistent production is the single biggest matchup advantage in this game. For Jacksonville State, forcing drives into Cook’s hands is priority one. – Tucker Kilcrease (Troy) vs. Jax State rush defense: If Crowder is out, Kilcrease’s passing skill and willingness to run will decide if Troy can keep up without its top RB. Kilcrease has produced big passing performances but also brings turnover risk.

• Key injuries and news

– Goose Crowder is questionable/unavailable after leaving the title game on crutches; Tae Meadows is expected to sit due to a portal decision; Jacksonville State reports no marquee opt-outs and expects Cam Cook to play. Monitor final practice reports, but current indications favor Jax State personnel continuity.

• Home/away / situational notes

– Game is at the Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, AL) — roughly neutral but tilted toward better in-state travel for both programs; Jacksonville State has played a long stretch of consecutive weeks and lacks a recent bye, while Troy had a November bye that could mean fresher legs.

Betting Analysis

• Spread analysis

– The market you provided lists Jacksonville State -1.5 (DraftKings primary). Some outlets opened Troy as a small favorite (ranging -2.5 to -3.5 in other books), showing minor disagreement across books — line movement indicates sharp money is split and the market views this as a true toss-up. Shop for the best number between +1.5 and +3.5 depending on where you bet.

• Total (over/under) analysis

– The posted total is 49.5. Evidence tilts toward a lower-scoring game: both conference title games for these teams were grind-it-out affairs (Jax State 19-15; Troy gave up a heavy rushing attack but struggled to sustain offense vs. JMU), and bowl prep often increases defensive focus and reduces variance. Conversely, Kilcrease’s streaks and Jax State’s rushing explosiveness create scoring upside. The market split and several sharp previews favor the Under or a conservative play on the total.

• Best value opportunities

– Value #1: Take Jacksonville State -1.5 (or better) — Troy’s questionable QB status and the loss of its leading rusher materially reduce the Trojans’ ceiling while Jax State’s identity (Cook + Creel) remains intact. Small spreads are where value hides in bowl season. – Value #2: Under 49.5 — both teams showed defensive resolve in championship games, and with injuries/opt-outs likely on Troy’s side, expect conservative game planning. If you prefer a single play, pairing Jax State -1.5 & Under 49.5 is a logical correlated ticket.

• Prediction and rationale

– Projection: Jacksonville State 24, Troy 21. The Gamecocks control the clock with Cam Cook, force Troy’s offense into predictable passing downs (where turnovers and inefficiency increase), and win a close, low-to-moderate scoring bowl game. That leads me to back Jacksonville State -1.5 and Under 49.5 as the best two-ticket combos.

Final pick: Jacksonville State -1.5 (primary) and Under 49.5 (secondary).

Wannamakeabet’s points-based system rates this as a medium-confidence play: injuries and late-line movement keep this from being a slam, but the turnover in Troy QB/RB availability plus Jacksonville State’s stable rushing attack create measurable edge on the road to the Cramton Bowl.