NBA picks 11/22: Sacramento @ Denver

Sacramento

@

Denver

By Ian Harrington for Wannamakeabet.com

This matchup brings two very different storylines to the court as Sacramento looks to turn the page on a brutal slide, while Denver continues to roll with one of the league’s most dominant squads.

Team Analysis

Sacramento

• Season overview: Sacramento sits at a dismal 3–13, already entrenched in a tailspin, losing seven straight games all by double digits. Their record is glaringly poor both straight-up (1–8 on the road) and against the spread (5–10–1) .
• Key injury: Star center Domantas Sabonis, averaging a double-double with 17.2 points and 12.3 rebounds, is out at least 3–4 weeks due to a partial meniscus tear—devastating news for a team already struggling .
• Without Sabonis anchoring the middle, Sacramento’s defensive and rebounding numbers drop further, compounding an already poor 124.4 PPG allowed .

Denver

• Season overview: The 11–3 Nuggets are a top-tier unit straight-up and against the spread (9–5–0), particularly dominant at home (6–1) .
• Form: They’ve won their last six meetings with Sacramento, including back-to-back wins this month — 130–124 on Nov 3 and 122–108 on Nov 11 .
• Star performance: Nikola Jokić is in historic form — opening the season with four straight triple-doubles, posting a 30/15/15, and even dropping a 55-point masterpiece on Nov 12 with elite efficiency .
• Roster note: Christian Braun remains out with an ankle injury; Aaron Gordon is questionable; Julian Strawther is listed out .

Key Matchup Factors

• Head-to-head history: Denver has owned this series, winning six straight. The trend is glaring in margin too—double-digit wins in both November matchups .

• Player matchups: Without Sabonis, Sacramento lacks a true counter to Jokić. All-Star Zach LaVine’s scoring alone won’t keep pace with Denver’s balanced attack anchored by Jokic and contributions from Murray, Gordon, and Brown .

• Injuries and News: Sacramento’s loss of Sabonis is crippling. Denver’s Braun remains sidelined, but their depth softens the blow. Gordon’s status remains uncertain but likely available .

• Home/Away splits: Denver is formidable at home (6–1), while Sacramento’s road fortunes (1–8) paint a bleak picture .

Betting Analysis

• Spread: Denver is favored-11.5. Given their recent double-digit wins over Sacramento, home advantage, and Sacramento’s injury woes, this line feels sustainable. Historically, Denver covered by at least 6–9 points; now Sabonis is out, expect a tilt toward covering .

• Total (Over/Under 236.5): Past meetings went over 254 and 230 points—split results. But Denver’s offense is humming and Sacramento’s defense is leaking — trend leans to the Over. However, Sabonis’ absence might lower pace slightly, still, both teams played fast early season .

• Value Opportunities:

– Bet Denver -11.5: high-upside, Denver looks poised to dominate. – Consider Over 236.5: two explosive recent matchups and injuries favor offense.

• Prediction: Expect a dominant Denver performance. Without Sabonis, Sacramento is vulnerable in paint, Denver’s Jokic is on another level, home crowd and form align — Nuggets win by double digits and cover; also, pace and offense suggest a high-scoring affair over the total.

• Closing pick: Denver -11.5, Over 236.5. According to Wannamakeabet’s points-based betting system, this projection earns strong confidence due to form, injuries, and matchup dynamics — ideal for strategic bettors looking to ride a high-probability outcome while capturing value.