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The Houston Texans (4-5) are set to face the Tennessee Titans (1-8) on Sunday, November 16, 2025, at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 PM ET. The Texans enter the game as 5.5-point favorites, with the over/under set at 37.5 points.
Team Analysis
Houston Texans
The Texans have shown resilience this season, maintaining a 4-5 record despite challenges. Their offense averages 22.67 points per game, ranking 19th in the league, and 331.2 total yards per game, placing them 15th. Quarterback C.J. Stroud has been a standout, throwing for 1,702 yards, 11 touchdowns, and five interceptions over eight games. However, Stroud is sidelined due to a concussion sustained on November 2, leading to Davis Mills starting in his place. Mills has experience, with 41 career appearances, including 26 starts, and threw for 292 yards and two touchdowns in the Texans’ 36-29 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars last week.
Defensively, the Texans have been formidable, ranking fourth in sacks and second in interceptions, making them one of the league’s most opportunistic units. Safety Jalen Pitre, who recorded 65 tackles and eight passes defensed this season, is out for the remainder of the year due to a chest injury.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans have struggled throughout the season, holding a 1-8 record. Their offense averages a league-low 14.44 points per game and 244 total yards per game. Rookie quarterback Cam Ward has faced challenges, completing 54.5% of his passes for 506 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception, while being sacked a league-high 15 times. Ward is dealing with an ankle/calf issue but has participated in practice.
Defensively, the Titans rank 30th in points allowed per game, conceding 28.56 points. They have shown some resilience, recording a season-high six sacks in their recent 27-20 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers.
Key Matchup Factors
Head-to-Head History
In their last five matchups, the Texans have dominated the Titans, winning four games and outscoring them 121 to 65.
Important Player Matchups
- Davis Mills vs. Cam Ward: Mills steps in for the injured Stroud, bringing experience and a recent strong performance. Ward, despite his rookie status, has shown flashes of potential but faces a tough Texans defense.
- Texans’ Pass Rush vs. Titans’ Offensive Line: The Texans’ aggressive pass rush, led by Danielle Hunter, will test the Titans’ offensive line, which has struggled with protection.
Injuries and News
- Texans: C.J. Stroud (QB) is out with a concussion. Jalen Pitre (S) is out for the season with a chest injury. Ka’imi Fairbairn (K) is also sidelined with a quad injury.
- Titans: Cam Ward (QB) is dealing with an ankle/calf issue but has participated in practice.
Home/Away Performance
The game is set in Nashville, where the Titans have struggled, holding a 1-4 home record this season.
Betting Analysis
Spread Analysis
The Texans are favored by 5.5 points. Given their superior offensive and defensive metrics, they are likely to cover the spread.
Total (Over/Under) Analysis
The over/under is set at 37.5 points. Considering both teams’ offensive struggles and the Texans’ strong defense, the under is a prudent choice.
Best Value Opportunities
- Texans Moneyline: At -310, the Texans are favored to win outright.
- Under 37.5 Points: Both teams have shown tendencies toward low-scoring games, making the under a solid bet.
Prediction
The Houston Texans are poised to secure a decisive victory over the Tennessee Titans. With a more potent offense and a formidable defense, the Texans are expected to cover the 5.5-point spread and the game is likely to stay under the 37.5-point total.
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