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Introduction
The Chicago Bears (6-3) are set to face the Minnesota Vikings (4-5) in a pivotal NFC North matchup on Sunday, November 16, 2025, at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 PM CST. The Vikings enter as 3-point favorites, with the over/under set at 48.5 points.
Team Analysis
Chicago Bears
The Bears have demonstrated a balanced offensive attack this season, averaging 26.56 points per game and 6.08 yards per play. Their rushing offense is particularly potent, averaging 147.3 yards per game, led by D’Andre Swift, who boasts 544 rushing yards on 113 carries with a 4.8 yards per carry average. In the passing game, quarterback Caleb Williams has thrown for 2,136 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions over nine games. Defensively, the Bears have been opportunistic, leading the league with 13 interceptions. However, their defense has allowed 27.44 points per game, indicating vulnerabilities that the Vikings may exploit.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings’ offense has been less consistent, averaging 22.33 points per game and 5.55 yards per play. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy has thrown for 692 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions in four games this season. The running game is anchored by Aaron Jones Sr., who has accumulated 1,138 rushing yards on 4.5 yards per carry with 5 touchdowns. Defensively, the Vikings have struggled, allowing 23.67 points per game and ranking last in the NFC North. However, they have shown resilience, winning two of their last three games against division opponents.
Key Matchup Factors
Head-to-Head History
The Vikings have dominated the recent series, winning eight of the last ten matchups against the Bears. In their most recent encounter on December 16, 2024, the Vikings secured a 30-12 victory at U.S. Bank Stadium.
Important Player Matchups
- Caleb Williams vs. J.J. McCarthy: Williams has been efficient, with a 13:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. McCarthy, on the other hand, has struggled with turnovers, throwing 6 interceptions in 4 games. The Bears’ secondary, leading the league with 13 interceptions, will look to capitalize on McCarthy’s mistakes.
- D’Andre Swift vs. Vikings’ Run Defense: Swift’s 4.8 yards per carry will test a Vikings defense that has been porous against the run, allowing 4.59 yards per carry. Establishing the run will be crucial for the Bears to control the clock and set up play-action opportunities.
- Aaron Jones Sr. vs. Bears’ Run Defense: Jones has been a workhorse for the Vikings, averaging 4.5 yards per carry. The Bears’ defense, allowing 4.59 yards per carry, will need to contain Jones to prevent long drives and scoring opportunities.
Injuries and News
- Jaylon Johnson (CB, Bears): The Bears have opened the 21-day practice window for cornerback Jaylon Johnson, a two-time Pro Bowler who has been sidelined since September due to a groin injury. His potential return could bolster the Bears’ secondary.
- Ryan Kelly (C, Vikings): The Vikings have opened the 21-day practice window for center Ryan Kelly, who has been on injured reserve since October due to multiple concussions. His return could stabilize the Vikings’ offensive line.
Home/Away Performance
The Vikings have struggled at home, with a 1-3 record at U.S. Bank Stadium this season. In contrast, the Bears have been more successful on the road, holding a 3-2 record away from Soldier Field.
Betting Analysis
Spread Analysis
The Vikings are favored by 3 points, reflecting their home-field advantage and the Bears’ recent struggles against division opponents. However, the Bears’ superior road performance and the Vikings’ home woes suggest that the spread may be too generous. Backing the Bears to cover the spread appears to be a prudent choice.
Total (Over/Under) Analysis
The over/under is set at 48.5 points. Both teams have shown the ability to score, with the Bears averaging 26.56 points per game and the Vikings 22.33 points per game. However, both defenses have vulnerabilities, particularly against the run. Considering these factors, the over appears to be a reasonable bet.
Best Value Opportunities
- Bears Moneyline: Given the Bears’ strong road performance and the Vikings’ struggles at home, the Bears’ moneyline offers value.
- Over 48.5 Points: Both teams have potent offenses and leaky defenses, making the over a compelling option.
Prediction
The Chicago Bears are poised to secure a narrow victory over the Minnesota Vikings. Their balanced offense, bolstered by a strong running game and efficient passing attack, should exploit the Vikings’ defensive weaknesses. Defensively, the Bears’ league-leading interception total indicates they can capitalize on J.J. McCarthy’s turnover tendencies. With favorable road performance and the potential return of Jaylon Johnson to the secondary, the Bears are well-positioned to cover the spread and potentially win outright.
For bettors, the Bears’ moneyline and the over 48.5 points present the most promising opportunities. Utilizing Wannamakeabet’s points-based betting system can further enhance your betting strategy for this matchup.