MLB Picks 8/13 – Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers

MLB Picks 8/13 – Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers

The Seattle Mariners (63-56) open a three-game set on the road against the Detroit Tigers (56-63) tonight at Comerica Park. This is the second and final series meeting between these teams. Detroit took two of three in Seattle one week ago. Detroit has won five of the last seven against Seattle dating back to May 2023.

Seattle enters tonight’s game on a high after a dominant three game sweep of the visiting New York Mets over the weekend. They outscored the Mets 22-1 in the three games. The one run allowed over a three-game series tied a team record, a mark reached twice before. Seattle won the series finale 12-1 over New York on Sunday night. Star catcher Cal Raleigh homered twice while starting pitcher Luis Castillo struck out nine over six innings in the rout. Seattle has won four straight games overall.

Detroit is coming off a 5-4 win at San Francisco on Sunday afternoon. The win prevented a three-game sweep at the hands of the Giants and snapped a three-game losing streak. Rookie catcher Dillon Dingler and designated hitter Matt Vierling each homered for Detroit in the win. It was Dingler’s first career MLB home run. Detroit has now won 19 one-run games this season. 

Tonight’s starters are George Kirby (8-8, 3.13 ERA, 138 K’s in 24 starts) for Seattle and All-Star Tarik Skubal (13-4, 2.57 ERA, 171 K’s in 23 starts) for Detroit.

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: Seattle -108,   Detroit -108

Run Line: Seattle -1.5 (+168),   Detroit +1.5 (-205)

Run Total: over 7 (-122)    under 7 (-107)                              

GAME STORYLINES: SEATTLE

Two years ago, the Seattle Mariners finished 90-72 and made the postseason for the first time since 2001. The 21-year playoff drought was one of the longest in North American team sports history.  Seattle’s 2022 turnaround was sparked by the tremendous play of then 21-year-old rookie Julio Rodriguez. The dynamic outfielder hit .284 with 28 homers and 75 RBI en route to being named an All-Star and the 2022 American League Rookie of the Year. 

Seattle narrowly missed out on a postseason bid last season after getting off to a slow start but they still finished with an impressive 88-74 record. Julio Rodriguez was even better in his second season as he hit .275 with 32 homers and 103 RBI, he led the team in all three categories. Seattle boasted one of the top starting pitching units in MLB last year led by the trio of Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby.

MLB Picks 8/13 – Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers

Seattle entered the 2024 season with high expectations and were playing very well through the first couple months of the season. Seattle was 44-31 on June 16 and 10 games ahead of struggling Texas and Houston, who were the two previous World Series champions, respectively. But a late-June swoon saw Seattle lose 6 of 7 and 10 of 13 which allowed Houston to catch them in the standings. The Mariners are currently a half game behind Houston in the AL West standings. The defending World Series champion Texas Rangers remain in a season long funk and are still well below .500.

After a fantastic first two years, Julio Rodriguez has produced a somewhat disappointing season in year three. He’s hitting .260 with 11 homers and 37 RBI across 101 games this year. He’ll likely finish with the lowest numbers of his career. Rodriguez did go on a tear last August around this time so there is a chance he gets hot again and can approach the excellent numbers of his first two seasons.

Catcher Cal Raleigh is having a magnificent season for Seattle. The third-year star is batting .217 with 26 homers and 76 RBI through 113 games. He belted a career-best 30 homers last season and has now hit at least 25 homers in three straight seasons. He’s the first catcher do accomplish this feat since Mike Piazza hit at least 25 homers for eight straight seasons from 1995-2002. Raleigh has pretty much carried a Seattle offense that has been somewhat underwhelming this season.

Seattle made a significant move prior to the July 30 trade deadline when they acquired All-Star outfielder Randy Arozarena from the Tampa Bay Rays on July 26. The 29-year-old power hitting Arozarena hit .211 with 15 homers and 37 RBI though 100 games with Tampa prior to the trade. He’s hit at least 20 homers in 3 straight seasons and should be able to provide a spark to a Mariners lineup that has been pedestrian this year outside of Cal Raleigh. 

GAME STORYLINES: DETROIT

At 56-63, the Detroit Tigers are heading for an eighth straight losing season. Detroit’s last postseason appearance was in 2014 when future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer anchored their pitching staff. A big reason for the long-term futility is the lack of hitting. Detroit has ranked at or near the bottom in nearly every hitting statistic for many seasons now. This season, Detroit’s .230 batting average ranks 28th (of 30 teams) while they rank 23rd in homers and runs scored.

Despite the continuous struggles of Detroit’s offense, they’re getting solid production from the youthful trio of 23-year-old left fielder Riley Greene (.264, 17 HR, 51 RBI in 101 games), 22-year-old rookie second baseman Colt Keith (.251, 11 HR, 43 RBI in 108 games) and 27-year-old outfielder/designated hitter Matt Vierling (.255, 14 HR, 46 RBI in 105 games). Greene leads Detroit in homers and RBI, and was named an All-Star for the first time in his young career this season. Greene entered Detroit’s organization with high expectations after being selected No. 5 overall in the 2019 MLB draft. The rookie Keith hit 7 of his 11 homers in the month of July which solidified his spot as an everyday player for Detroit.

The lone bright spot for Detroit this season has been the stellar pitching from ace Tarik Skubal. The 27-year-old left-hander is having a breakout campaign in his fourth season. Skubal is currently 13-4 with a 2.57 ERA and 171 strikeouts through 23 starts. Skubal’s 2.57 ERA leads MLB, his 13 wins is tied for first and his 171 strikeouts ranks second among starting pitchers. Skubal’s 12 wins before the month of August was the most for a Tigers pitcher since Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello did it in 2014. 

MLB Picks 8/13 – Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers

Tarik Skubal takes the mound tonight at home against Seattle. His last start was at Seattle less than a week ago on Aug. 7. He dominated the Mariners from the start by retiring the first 9 batters of the game. Skubal finished that contest with 9 strikeouts over 7 innings while giving up 2 earned runs in Detroit’s 6-2 win. Skubal has pitched at least six innings in 8 straight starts and has recorded at least six strikeouts in 9 consecutive starts. ​

Tarik Skubal is considered the favorite to win the 2024 American League Cy Young Award. If he does capture the award, he would be the first Tigers pitcher to receive the honor since Max Scherzer in 2013. 

THE PICK: MARINERS (Moneyline)

Skubal is arguably the best pitcher in baseball but Seattle comes in playing very well. I think Skubal and Kirby will have a low-scoring pitching duel, and Seattle will pick up runs and the win off Detroit’s faulty bullpen after Skubal exits the game. Take Seattle on the moneyline tonight!

MLB Picks 8/13 – Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers