MLB Picks 8/8 – Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays

The Baltimore Orioles (68-47) conclude a three-game series at the Toronto Blue Jays (52-62) tonight at Rogers Centre on MLB Network. The teams split the first two games with Toronto winning the opener 5-2 on Monday and Baltimore picking up a 7-3 win last night. Tonight is the final matchup between the long-time American League East rivals, Baltimore leads the season series 7-5, they’ve won three of the last four against Toronto.

Toronto took the opener 5-2 behind a masterful pitching performance from Chris Bassitt. The veteran right-hander struck out a season-high nine batters over seven innings in picking up his ninth win of the year. Toronto scored all five of their runs in the sixth inning as they hammered Baltimore reliever Gregory Soto. Toronto catcher Alejandro Kirk’s three-run homer put the Blue Jays on the board. Baltimore’s highly touted rookie Jackson Holiday connected on a 410-foot solo homer in the top of the sixth inning that broke open a scoreless game.

Baltimore avenged Monday night’s loss with a 7-3 win yesterday. All-Star outfielder Anthony Santander homered twice – a two-run shot in the first inning and a solo shot in the eighth inning – for Baltimore. Prized rookie Jackson Holiday homered for a third straight game in the win. His two-run shot in the seventh inning gave Baltimore a 4-3 lead. The 20-year-old Holiday has been on a torrid pace since being called back up from the minors on July 31.

Tonight’s starters are Dean Kremer (4-8, 4.39 ERA, 75 K’s in 15 starts) for Baltimore and Kevin Gausman (9-8, 4.56 ERA, 119 K’s in 22 starts) for Toronto.

Moneyline: Baltimore -116,   Toronto -102

Run Line: Baltimore -1.5 (+134),    Toronto +1,5 (-162)

Run Total: over 9 (-104)    under 9 (-118)

Last season the Baltimore Orioles came out of nowhere to finish 101-61, which was the second-best record in MLB behind the Atlanta Braves. They won the tough American League East division for the first time since 2014. Baltimore made a remarkable turnaround when you consider they finished 52-110 two years earlier in 2021, and were arguably the worst franchise in all of baseball from 2017-2021.

During Baltimore’s multi-year run of futility, they drafted a number of talented prospects – Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander and Ryan Mountcastle – who all ended up starring on last season’s 101-win team. Baltimore’s 2023 season ended prematurely as they were swept in their opening playoff series by the Texas Rangers but it doesn’t take away from the tremendous strides they made in 2023.

Nothing has changed for Baltimore in 2024 as they’ve remained one of the top teams in MLB for the entire season. They are currently an AL-best 68-47 and tied with the New York Yankees for first place in the American League East. Baltimore traded for former Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes in the offseason and he’s put together another All-Star season for the O’s. He’s currently 12-4 with a 2.63 ERA and a 132:34 K:BB through 23 starts. His 2.63 ERA ranks second in MLB. Burns gives Baltimore the dominant ace they’ve lacked since Hall of Famer Mike Mussina pitched for the club in the 1990’s.

At the plate, Baltimore possesses a deep and talented lineup led by the power hitting All-Star duo of shortstop Gunnar Henderson (.287, 29 HR, 69 RBI, 14 stolen bases in 113 games) and right fielder Anthony Santander (.248, 34 HR, 78 RBI in 110 games). The 22-year-old superstar Henderson was the unanimous AL Rookie of the Year last season and has been even better in year two. Santander is on pace to lead Baltimore in homers and RBI for a third straight year. His 34 homers are a career-high and rank second in MLB behind Aaron Judge.

Baltimore has also been buoyed by the return of highly touted rookie second baseman Jackson Holiday. The 20-year-old Holiday was the No.1 overall pick in the 2021 MLB draft and is the son of former 15-year MLB vet and 7-time All-Star Matt Holiday. After making the opening day roster, Holiday struggled mightily as he hit just .059 with no homers in April. Baltimore sent him back to the minors for a little over three months. They recalled him from Triple-A Norfolk on July 31, and he’s been on a tear. Holliday has 4 homers and 10 RBI in 7 games since his return.

The Toronto Blue Jays entered the 2024 season with high expectations after making back-to-back postseason appearances and averaging 90+ wins over the last three seasons. But the 2024 season has been a disaster for Toronto as they enter tonight’s game at just 52-62. Toronto will likely suffer their first losing season since 2019 when they finished 67-95. Injuries and inconsistent pitching have doomed Toronto all year.

Last season, Toronto had one of the top pitching units in MLB as their 3.78 team ERA ranked fourth. The foursome of Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman and Yusei Kikuchi were arguably the best four-man rotation in baseball. Toronto’s team ERA has dropped to 4.61 this season which ranks 28th (out of 30 teams) as Bassitt, Gausman and Kikuchi have all been inconsistent. Those 3 went a combined 39-23 last season but are currently 22-29 in 2024, and are giving up a lot more runs.

Toronto’s power-hitting lineup regressed this year due to injuries and player defections. Veterans Matt Chapman and Whit Merrifield both departed as free agents in the offseason, and Toronto was unable to replace their production this season. Most importantly, star shortstop Bo Bichette has been hampered by injuries for almost the entire season. The 26-year-old, two-time All-Star Bichette has missed 35 games this year due to a recurring right calf injury. He has not played since July 19 and isn’t expected back anytime soon. For the season, Bichette has put up a paltry .223 with 4 homers across 79 games due to not being able to play consistently.

Through all the injuries to teammates and disappointing play on the field, superstar Vlad Guerrero Jr. continues to play at an elite level. The 25-year-old superstar is hitting .317 with 22 homers and 72 RBI through 113 games. He leads the team in all three categories. Guerrero was named an All-Star for the fourth straight season. He was the only Blue Jay selected to the All-Star team. Guerrero enters tonight’s game on a 19-game hit streak.

Baltimore is jockeying for the No. 1 seed in the American League while Toronto is playing out the string of a disappointing season. I’m going with the better team here. Take the Orioles on the moneyline tonight!