NBA Picks 4/10 – Minnesota Timberwolves @  Denver Nuggets

NBA Picks 4/10 – Minnesota Timberwolves @  Denver Nuggets

Tonight brings us a huge matchup as the Minnesota Timberwolves (55-24, 1st in the Western Conference) visit the Denver Nuggets (55-24, 1st in the Western Conference) at Ball Arena on ESPN. Both teams are currently tied for the top seed in the Western Conference, so the winner becomes the frontrunner to win the West. Denver is a 5.5-point favorite and the total is 212.5. The teams are meeting for the fourth and final time tonight. Minnesota won two of the previous three matchups, both of Minnesota’s wins – 110-89 on Nov. 1 and 111-98 on Mar. 29 – were in dominant fashion. Top seeded Denver knocked of eighth-seeded Minnesota 4-1 in the first round of the playoffs last season. 

Minnesota is coming off a 130-121 comeback win against the visiting Washington Wizards last night, they overcame a 21-point, first half deficit to pull out the victory. Anthony Edwards scored a career-high 51 points in the win. It was Minnesota’s seventh straight home win and eighth win in their last ten games. Denver is coming off a 111-95 win at Utah last night behind Nikola Jokic’s 28 points, 13 rebounds, 7 assists, 3 steals and 1 block across 34 minutes. Denver has won four of their last five games.

GAME STORYLINES: MINNESOTA

After trading away superstar Kevin Garnett in July 2007, the Minnesota Timberwolves franchise had been mostly mired in mediocrity ever since. The post-Kevin Garnett era brought 10 straight losing seasons from 2008-2017 and 13 losing seasons in 16 years. Through all the losing, Minnesota was able to land the No. 1 overall pick on two occasions in 2015 and 2020. They selected Kentucky’s Karl-Anthony Towns with the first pick in 2015 and Georgia’s Anthony Edwards with the first pick in 2020. Both guys quickly became elite players in the NBA. Minnesota also traded for All-Star center Rudy Gobert in July 2022. These three moves have led to Minnesota’s resurgence.

The excellent play of Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns this season has catapulted Minnesota to the top of the Western Conference standings. Minnesota’s 55 wins is their most since the 2003-04 season when they won a franchise-record 58 games and made it to the Western Conference finals. Unfortunately for Minnesota, All-Star center Karl-Anthony Towns suffered a torn right meniscus in his knee during a Feb. 4 win against Portland and hasn’t played since. He’s resumed full-court contact and could return very soon before the regular season ends. Towns was averaging 22.1 ppg and 8.4 rpg while shooting 50.6 percent from the floor and 42.3 percent from long distance in 60 games.

At just 22, Anthony Edwards has already established himself as one of the top players in the NBA. The two-time All-Star is averaging 26.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 1.3 steals and 2.3 threes while shooting 46.2 percent from the floor on the season. His stats have improved in all four years he’s been in the NBA. Edwards averaged 31.6 pts, 5.2 asts, 5 rebs, 2 blks and 1.8 stls in 5 games against Denver last year in the playoffs. He’s averaged 28.1 ppg in 11 career playoff games which shows his knack for elevating his performance in the playoffs. This should bode well for Minnesota now that they’ve established themselves as an elite team capable of making deep playoff runs.

Rudy Gobert (13.7 pts, 12.9 rebs, 2.1 blks, 65.1% from 2), Naz Reid (13.4 pts, 5.3 rebs, 2.1 threes, 48% from 2, 41.9% from 3) and veteran guard Mike Conley (11.2 pts, 6 asts, 1.2 stls, 2.3 threes, 43.6% from 3) have all been outstanding this season in complementary roles alongside Edwards and Towns. The 31-year-old Gobert continues to be a defensive and rebounding stud for Minnesota, he has 52 double-doubles on the season and his 12.9 rebounds per game ranks second in the NBA. Reid has been tremendous filling in for Karl-Anthony Towns. The 24-year-old Reid is averaging about18 ppg and 7 rpg as a starter in place of Towns.

GAME STORYLINES: DENVER

After decades of having teams not quite good enough to knock off the Los Angeles Lakers – whether the Lakers were led by Magic Johnson in 80’s or Kobe Bryant in the 2010’s – and advance to the NBA Finals, the 2022-23 Denver Nuggets swept the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals and then went on to win the franchise’s first NBA title. Led by superstar center Nikola Jokic, Denver dominated the 2023 postseason by going 16-4 and winning 10 of their last 11 playoff games en route to the championship. Jokic put together a historic performance in the 2023 NBA Finals by averaging 30.2 points, 14 rebounds, 7.2 assists, and 1.4 blocks on 57.9 percent shooting from the floor as Denver dispatched of the Miami Heat in 5 games. 

The two-time MVP Nikola Jokic has continued his stellar play again this season in year 9. The 29-year-old Jokic is averaging 26.4 points, 12.4 rebounds, 9 assists and 1.3 steals on 57.8 percent shooting from the floor across 76 games. Jokic has 25 triple-doubles on the season which ranks second to Sacramento’s Domantas Sabonis, who has 26. He has a shot at being named the NBA’s Most Valuable Player for a third time.

Shooting guard Jamal Murray (20.8 pts, 6.7 asts, 4.1 rebs, 2.3 threes, 47.5% from 2, 42.6% from 3) is Jokic’s co-star for Denver and his availability over these past two seasons have been key as Denver is in a good position to repeat as NBA champions. After Jokic and Murray led Denver to the 2020 Western Conference Finals, Murray tore his ACL in April 2021, the injury kept him out of the 2021 and 2022 playoffs, in addition to the entire 2021-22 season. Not surprisingly, Denver made quick exits in those playoffs. Murray averaged 26.1 points, 7.1 assists and 5.7 rebounds on 47.3 percent shooting from the floor in 20 playoff games last season. He averaged 32.5 ppg on 52 percent shooting from the floor in Denver’s four-game sweep of the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals. Murray made his return to the court last night at Utah after missing the last 8 games with right knee inflammation. 

Athletic and versatile forwards Michael Porter Jr. (16.9 pts, 7.1 rebs, 2.8 threes, 48.7% from 2, 40.2% from 3) and Aaron Gordon (14 pts, 6.5 rebs, 3.4 asts, 55.4% from 2), along with sharpshooting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (10.2 pts, 2.4 asts, 1.3 stls, 41.4% from 3) round out a strong and efficient starting five for Denver. Like Jamal Murray, Porter Jr. also missed a sizable number of games during the 2021 and 2022 seasons, and his return has provided a significant boost for Denver. 

THE PICK: DENVER (-5.5)

The winner of this game will most likely finish as the top seed in the West, I don’t think Minnesota has the big-game experience to stay with Denver in this one, Lay the Points and take the Nuggets!