MLB Picks 3/26 – Opening Day – Pirates @ Mets

Opening Day of the 2026 Major League Baseball season begins today with a matinee matchup as the Pittsburgh Pirates (71-91 in 2025) visit the New York Mets (83-79 in 2025) at Citi Field on NBC. The Pirates and Mets will face each other six times during the regular season. Pittsburgh won the season series 4-2 last season. New York has won six of the last seven at home against Pittsburgh.

The Opening Day starters features a pair of 2025 All-Stars in reigning National League Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes (10-10, MLB-leading 1.97 ERA, 216 K’s in 2025) for Pittsburgh and newly-acquired Freddy Peralta (17-6, 2.70 ERA, 204 K’s in 2025 w/MIL) for New York.

Moneyline: Pittsburgh – 102,  New York -118

Run Line: Pittsburgh -1.5 (+165), New York +1.5 (-202)

Run Total: over 7 (-102),  under 7 (-118)

Today’s game marks the return of Major League Baseball to NBC. MLB and NBC agreed to a three-year, $600 million media right deal on Nov. 19, 2025. The last time an MLB game aired on NBC was in October 2000.

After three decades (1993-2023) of mostly abysmal play, it looked like the Pittsburgh Pirates were going to reverse their misfortune when they landed the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 MLB draft and selected LSU pitcher Paul Skenes. The 6-foot-6 Skenes was one of the most heralded draft prospects of all time after he compiled a stellar 2023 season at LSU where he led his team to the College World Series title.

Paul Skenes exceeded expectations in his first two MLB seasons as his rookie year concluded with him starting in the All-Star game and being named the National League Rookie of the Year in 2024. He followed that up by taking home the National League Cy Young Award last season after posting an MLB-leading 1.97 ERA across 32 starts. Skenes has compiled a 21-13 record with a 1.96 ERA and a 386:74 K:BB over 55 career starts with the Pirates.

Unfortunately, the exceptional play of Paul Skenes has not translated into success for the Pittsburgh Pirates as they’ve posted underwhelming records of 76-86 (2024) and 71-91 (2025) in his 2 seasons on the team. Pittsburgh’s lack of offensive firepower has been a glaring weakness for the team in Skenes’ two MLB seasons.

Pittsburgh was uncharacteristically aggressive in the offseason as building a great team around Paul Skenes is now critical with Skenes entering his third year with the franchise. The Pirates made three significant additions to their offense, adding slugging outfielder Marcell Ozuna (1-yr free agent deal), power-hitting second baseman Brandon Lowe (trade) and outfielder Ryan O’Hearn (2-yr free agent deal).

The newly-acquired trio of Marcell Ozuna (.232, 21 HR, 68 RBI in 2025 w/ATL), Brandon Lowe (.256, 31 HR, 83 RBI in 2025 w/TB) and Ryan O’Hearn (.281, career-high 17 HR, 63 RBI in 2025 w/BAL+SD) should provide a tremendous boost for a Pirates offense that was awful last year. Holdovers O’Neal Cruz (.200, 20 HR, 61 RBI, 38 steals in 2025) and Bryan Reynolds (.245, 16 HR, 73 RBI in 2025) were Pittsburgh’s top power hitters over the last few seasons, but should be in a more suitable situation this season with better hitters in the lineup.

It’s imperative that the Pirates finish with a winning record/contend for a playoff spot in 2026 because three straight subpar seasons will increase speculation about Paul Skenes being traded to a contender. Skenes is signed through the 2029 season and looks to be content, but floundering on a bad team for a third straight season could sour him on playing for Pittsburgh.

In December 2024, the New York Mets surprised many baseball observers when they signed free agent superstar slugger Juan Soto to a 15-year, $765 million contract. The deal caught a lot of fans off guard because the Mets were able to lure Soto away from the crosstown rival New York Yankees — who rarely get outbid for a star player.

The addition of Juan Soto was expected to give the Mets a tremendous boost in 2025, after they finished with an 89-73 record in 2024 and advanced to the NLCS. The 2025 Mets were performing like one of the elite teams in MLB for most of the season as they were a season-high 21 games over .500 (45-24) on June 12, and still in decent shape at 62-44 on July 27. But a horrific final two months of the season that saw the Mets endure separate losing streaks of 7 and 8 games led to an 83-79 finish and no postseason.

Despite the disastrous end to the 2025 campaign, Juan Soto registered another prolific season at the plate batting .263 with career-highs of 43 homers and 38 stolen bases, along with 105 RBI and 127 walks across 160 games. The 27-year-old, four-time All-Star was exquisite in his debut season with the Mets.

After last season’s stunning collapse, New York’s brass made drastic changes to the roster. They jettisoned star hitters Pete Alonzo (free agent), Brandon Nimmo (trade) and Jeff McNeil (trade), and replaced them with a foursome of excellent hitters in Bo Bichette (trade), Luiz Robert (trade), Jorge Polanco (trade) and Marcus Semien (signed). The Mets also traded for Milwaukee Brewers’ ace and 2025 All-Star Freddy Peralta.

The additions of Bo Bichette (.313, 18 HR, 93 RBI w/TOR in 2025), Luiz Robert (.223, 14 HR, 53 RBI, 33 steals, w/CHISox in 2025), Jorge Polanco (.267, 26 HR, 78 RBI w/SEA in 2025) and Marcus Semien (.230, 15 HR, 63 RBI w/TEX in 2025) give the Mets a star-studded hitting lineup that should be one of the MLB’s best. Superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor (.266, 31 HR, 86 RBI, 35 doubles, 31 steals in 2025) also returns for the Mets.

The Pirates trot out arguably the MLB’s best pitcher in Paul Skenes this afternoon, and they should be better with the veteran power-hitting trio of Marcell Ozuna, Brandon Lowe and Ryan O’Hearn now on board. But I think Mets starter Freddy Peralta can match Skenes’ production. New York’s new and improved star-studded lineup should be the difference in this one. I’m not sure how many pitchers can contain a potent lineup like that. Take the Mets on the Moneyline!