NBA Picks 3/24 – Nuggets @ Suns

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The Denver Nuggets (44-28, 5th in Western Conference) visit the Phoenix Suns (40-32, 7th in Western Conference) tonight at Mortgage Matchup Center on NBC/Peacock. Both teams are jockeying for playoff position in the loaded Western Conference. Denver is looking to secure the third or fourth seed in order to capture home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Phoenix is looking to finish among the top six in order to avoid the Play-In round.

This is the third and final regular season meeting between the teams. Denver won the first two matchups decisively, winning 133-111 at home on Oct. 29 and 130-112 in Phoenix on Nov. 29. The Nuggets have won four in a row and five of the last six against the Suns.

Denver is a 5-point favorite and the total is 234.5

Denver defeated the Portland Trail Blazers 128-112 at home on Sunday. Both teams got off to a torrid start combining for 82 points — Denver led 42-40 — in the first quarter. After leading 75-69 at the half, Denver pulled away in the third quarter outscoring Portland 32-24 and led 107-93 heading into the final frame. The Nuggets were never challenged in the fourth quarter.

Nikola Jokic registered his 35th triple-double of the season, finishing with 22 points (10-18 FG, 2-8 3Pt), 14 rebounds and 14 assists across 35 minutes for Denver. Jamal Murray tallied 22 points (9-18 FG, 4-9 3Pt), 7 assists, 2 rebounds and a steal in 31 minutes. Seven players finished in double figures for Denver.

Phoenix trounced the Toronto Raptors 120-98 at home on Sunday. The Suns never trailed in the game and led by 18 (66-48) at halftime. Phoenix extended their lead to 30 (92-62) late in the third quarter and maintained a sizeable lead for the rest of the game.

All-Star Devin Booker scored a game-high 25 points (9-15 FG, 3-6 3Pt, 4-4 FT) and dished out 6 assists in 31 minutes for Phoenix. Jalen Green added 20 points (8-15 FG, 2-5 3Pt, 2-2 FT), 7 assists, 3 steals and a block across 30 minutes, while Collin Gillespie recorded 16 points (6-9 FG, 4-6 3Pt), 4 rebounds, 3 assists and a steal over 22 minutes.

Sunday’s victory snapped Phoenix’s season-high five-game losing streak.

Three years ago (2022-23), the Denver Nuggets cruised to the franchise’s first NBA championship behind the herculean efforts of superstar Nikola Jokic. Denver finished 15-4 in the 2023 postseason and won 10 of their final 11 playoff games. The then-28-year-old Jokic delivered a historic performance in the NBA Finals where he averaged 30.2 points, 14 rebounds, 7.2 assists and 1.4 blocks per game on 58.3 percent shooting from the floor as Denver dispatched of the pesky Miami Heat in 5 games (4-1).

Since winning the NBA title in 2023, Denver has not been able to advance past the second round of the playoffs. They’ve lost back-to-back second round series that have gone the full seven games over the previous two seasons — they dropped Game 7 at home to the third-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves in 2024, and then lost Game 7 on the road against the eventual NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder last year.

Denver also made the surprising and controversial move of firing head coach Mike Malone in April 2025 with less than a week left to go in the regular season. Denver had a 47-32 record at the time of Malone’s firing which made it surprising. Malone had coached Denver to an NBA championship less than two years before the firing. The team cited a toxic feud with General Manager Calvin Booth — who was fired along with Malone — as to why Malone was dismissed. David Adelman has coached the team ever since.

Prior to this season, Denver added Cam Johnson, Jonas Valanciunas and Bruce Brown in effort to improve their defense. Unfortunately, we’ve rarely been able to see Denver’s improved defensive lineup due to a litany of injuries. Aaron Gordon (42 gms), Christian Braun (34 gms), newly-acquired Cam Johnson (24 gms), Peyton Watson (20 gms) and Nikola Jokic (16 gms) have all missed significant amounts of time with injuries. Denver’s opening night starting lineup (Aaron Gordon, Cam Johnson, Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Christian Braun) has only started in a handful of games together this season.

Despite the assortment of injuries for the team, Nikola Jokic continues to amass stellar numbers this season in year 11. The 31-year-old, three-time MVP is averaging 28 points, 12.6 rebounds, 10.6 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.8 threes per game on 57.3 percent shooting from the field and 38.5 percent shooting from long distance in 56 games. Last season, Jokic became the third player in NBA history — along with Oscar Robertson and Russell Westbrook — to average a triple-double in a season. He’ll likely do it again for a second straight season.

After finishing with a disappointing 36-46 record last year, the Phoenix Suns scrapped their ill-fated Big Three (Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, Kevin Durant) plan when they bought out Beal and dealt Kevin Durant to the Houston Rockets in a blockbuster trade over the summer. The Suns received a trade package that featured young shooting guard Jalen Green and rugged forward Dillon Brooks in exchange for Durant.

With Bradley Beal and Kevin Durant no longer around, the Phoenix Suns began the year with lots of question marks outside of its superstar scorer Devin Booker — the Suns’ all-time leading scorer. Phoenix was projected to be one of the worst teams in the NBA this season as their projected over/under win total was around 30.5. To make matters worse, Jalen Green began the year on the injured list due to a strained right hamstring that he sustained during training camp.

Despite the roster upheaval and injuries, the Phoenix Suns have produced a terrific season. They enter tonight’s game with 40 wins, which is well above what was projected for them. The old adage, ‘Addition By Subtraction’ applies to this Suns team as they’ll likely finish with at least 8 more wins than last year’s star-studded team.

The continued brilliance of superstar Devin Booker is a big reason for Phoenix’s surprising success this season. The 29-year-old, four-time All-Star is averaging 25.5 points, 5.9 assists, 3.9 rebounds and 1.9 threes per game on 45.2 percent shooting from the floor across 56 games. The Suns’ franchise scoring leader Booker will average over 25 ppg for an 8th straight season. Booker has averaged at least 22.1 points per game in 10 of his 11 NBA seasons.

The tremendous production from trade acquisitions Dillon Brooks (career-high 20.9 ppg, 3.7 rebs, 1 stl, 2.3 threes in 50 gms) and Jalen Green (17.6 ppg, 3.5 rebs, 1.1 stls, 2.3 threes in 24 gms) along with guards Grayson Allen (career-high 17.2 ppg, 4.1 asts, 1.4 stls, 3.3 threes, 35.4% from 3 in 44 gms) and Collin Gillespie (13.3 ppg, 4.8 asts, 4.2 rebs, 1.4 stls, 3.1 threes, 42.1% from 3 in 71 gms) has also been instrumental in Phoenix’s unexpected success this season.

Phoenix’s top four scorers — Devin Booker, Dillon Brooks, Jalen Green and Grayson Allen — have all missed significant time with injuries and have rarely played together as a unit. Dillon Brooks has been out since Feb. 21 with a broken left hand, and there is no definitive timetable for his return. Brooks recently had his cast removed which is a sign of progress. We have to wonder what the Suns’ record would be if these four were relatively healthy for the entire season.

I think Phoenix rides the momentum from Sunday’s shellacking of the Toronto Raptors and delivers another excellent effort at home against Denver tonight. Take the Points and the Suns tonight!