NFL Playoff picks 1/11: Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Buffalo Bills

@

Jacksonville Jaguars

by Jack Chambers for Wannamakeabet.com

Buffalo and Jacksonville square off in a high-stakes AFC Wild Card matchup on January 11, 2026 — a game that feels balanced on paper with Jacksonville -1.5 and a 51.5 point total. Expect two contrasting identities: Buffalo’s physical, run-leaning attack and Jacksonville’s heat-check offense riding momentum into the postseason.

Team Analysis

Buffalo

• Season overview and recent form: The Buffalo Bills finished the regular season 12-5, leaning into a strong rushing attack led by James Cook and an offensive line that has surfaced as a strength late in the year. Buffalo’s defense has had rotation issues and injury impacts down the stretch, but remains opportunistic enough to make this a one-score affair.

• Recent notes: Buffalo dealt a late-week wide receiver loss as Josh Palmer was ruled out with an ankle injury, and the team managed a mix of DNPs and limited practices by key defenders in the closing weeks. Quarterback Josh Allen has carried a late-season foot concern that the club has monitored closely.

Jacksonville

• Season overview and recent form: The Jacksonville Jaguars enter at 13-4, having finished the season strong and clinched the AFC South. Jacksonville’s offense topped the franchise’s single-season marks for touchdowns and has averaged north of 30 points in several recent wins, with Trevor Lawrence playing his best football when it mattered most. They rolled into the postseason with home-field advantage for this Wild Card game.

• Recent notes: Jacksonville closed the year on an upswing — multiple blowouts and an efficient, low-turnover stretch — while maintaining relative health across the core skill positions. Lawrence finished with a high-volume passing season and the Etienne-led ground game keeps defenses honest.

Key Matchup Factors

• Head-to-head history: These clubs split recent narratives but Buffalo dominated a September meeting in 2024 (47-10), showing they can both score in bursts and force turnovers — an imprint that matters in playoff chess. Recent matchups have produced variable results, so historical edge is minimal for betting purposes.

• Important player matchups:

– Josh Allen (if at full health) vs. Jacksonville’s interior pass rush — Buffalo needs clean pockets to operate the intermediate passing game; pressure flips script toward Jacksonville. – Trevor Lawrence vs. Buffalo’s secondary — Lawrence’s accuracy and progressions stress a Bills backline that has battled injuries; Jacksonville’s receivers (including breakout pieces like Parker Washington) create matchup problems. – The Bills’ rushing tandem vs. Jacksonville’s front seven — controlling the clock and limiting Lawrence’s possessions is Buffalo’s winning formula.

• Key injuries and news: Buffalo lost Josh Palmer (ankle) for the game and carried several defensive question marks late in the season; Josh Allen’s foot was monitored though team statements have been mixed on his practice participation. Jacksonville’s injury profile was lighter entering the postseason, with only minor questions to monitor at receiver/line positions.

• Home/away performance: Jacksonville’s home form (a strong win rate and ability to pile up points at The Bank) contrasts with Buffalo’s historically tougher road/neutral-site playoff results — Buffalo has not historically won a playoff road game in decades, making venue and crowd noise non-trivial. Expect JAX’s crowd edge to impact pre-snap communication and special teams.

Betting Analysis

• Spread analysis: The market at DraftKings lists Jacksonville -1.5, implying books see a razor-thin edge to the home team. Across outlets the spread has hovered around a field-goal margin, consistent with Jacksonville’s superior regular-season record and home advantage balanced against Buffalo’s big-play upside. Fading value would be Buffalo only if the spread climbs to +3 or more; at -1.5, back Jacksonville for small edge if you favor the favorite’s health and momentum.

• Total (over/under) analysis: The 51.5 total is fair given both teams’ scoring profiles — Jacksonville averaged explosive outputs late, while Buffalo can produce chunk plays and clock-eating drives. Key determinant: Allen’s mobility and any weather factors. If Allen is limited or Buffalo shortens game script with the run, the Under gains advantage; if both QBs stay aggressive, betting the Over has merit. Monitor final injury reports and weather for a final lean.

• Best value opportunities:

– Live look at Allen mobility props or second-half lines — if Allen appears limited early, live markets will overprice Buffalo regressions. – Player props on Trevor Lawrence passing yards (market often underestimates late-season form) when books set conservative lines.

• Prediction: Expect a tight, physical game that tilts toward Jacksonville by a narrow margin. My lean: Jaguars -1.5 and play the Under 51.5 if weather or Josh Allen’s mobility is downgraded pregame. Final predicted score: Jacksonville 27, Buffalo 23 — a small-edge home win consistent with form and matchup dynamics.

Key Injury Statuses

• Buffalo

– Josh Palmer — OUT (ankle). – Josh Allen — managed foot issue; limited practice history late but cleared previously; monitor gameday designation. – Terrel Bernard, Maxwell Hairston, Damar Hamlin — late-week participation questions; Bernard listed with calf issues.

• Jacksonville

– Core starters largely available entering the postseason; track minor WR/OL day-to-day tags (Calvin Ridley noted with limited practice reports earlier in the week).

• Final gameday statuses should be checked at the 90-minute injury report window for last-minute changes that materially shift lines.

Final pick and closing: Back Jacksonville -1.5 (small unit) and Under 51.5 (medium unit) assuming no late elevation to Allen’s mobility or severe weather. Use Wannamakeabet’s points-based betting system to size these plays — favor the spread lean as a 1–2 point system unit and increase exposure on the Under only if Bills’ offensive mobility is downgraded on game day.