NFL Picks 1/10 – Rams @ Panthers

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The NFL playoffs start on Saturday with an opening round NFC Wild Card matchup as the fifth-seeded Los Angeles Rams (12-5, 2nd in the NFC West) visit the fourth-seeded, NFC South Champion Carolina Panthers (8-9) on Saturday afternoon at Bank of America Stadium. The game kicks off at 4:30 p.m. (EST) on Fox. Despite winning four fewer games than Los Angeles, Carolina gets to host the game due to being a division winner.

The teams faced each other in the regular season with Carolina stunning the heavily-favored (10 points) Rams 31-28 at home in Week 13 on Nov. 30. Carolina’s victory halted the Rams’ six-game win streak. Carolina’s defense forced three turnovers — including a 48-yard pick-six from Mike Jackson — from the usually error-free Matt Stafford in the Week 13 win. Stafford had thrown an NFL-record 28 touchdowns without an interception prior to that contest.

This will be the second-ever postseason meeting between the franchises. During the 2003 postseason, Carolina upset the second-seeded St. Louis Rams 29-23 in double overtime in the divisional round (2nd round) en route to the franchise’s first Super Bowl appearance. Steve Smith’s 69-yard touchdown pass from Jake Delhomme on the first play of the second overtime won it in dramatic fashion for Carolina. 

Los Angeles is a 10-point favorite and the total is 45.5.

HOW BOTH TEAMS GOT TO THE POSTSEASON: LOS ANGELES RAMS

In March 2021, the Los Angeles Rams made the bold and surprising move of trading their 26-year-old starting quarterback Jared Goff — who they selected with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 NFL draft — to the Detroit Lions in exchange for talented 33-year-old starting quarterback Matthew Stafford. It seemed like a curious move by the Rams when you consider Goff led them to Super Bowl LIII (53) during the 2018 season and guided them to four straight winning seasons. 

The addition of Matthew Stafford in March 2021 paid immediate dividends for the Rams as they would finish 11-6 and go on to win Super Bowl LVI (56) during Stafford’s first season with the team in 2021. It was the franchise’s second Super Bowl trophy and first in the city of Los Angeles. Stafford also tied a career-high with 41 touchdown passes in his debut season with the Rams. 

After taking home the Super Bowl trophy during the 2021-22 season, the next 4 seasons have been somewhat disappointing for the Rams. Injuries to Stafford and other key players dropped the Rams to 5-12 in 2022. They followed that up with back-to-back 10-7 finishes in 2023 and 2024. Los Angeles has only won one playoff game since winning the Super Bowl in 2021. Despite the lack of team success since over the last 3 seasons, the venerable Matthew Stafford continues to perform at an elite level.

It appeared as if the Rams were the NFL’s best team for most of the season as Matthew Stafford performed at an MVP level and the team sat at 11-3 on Dec. 14 after winning 8 of 9 games. But back-to-back demoralizing road losses against Seattle and Atlanta cost them the top seed in the NFC and a division crown in the ultra-competitive NFC West. 

When you consider that all five of the Rams losses this year were by 7 points or less and their plus-172 point differential — which ranks 2nd behind the NFC’s top-seed Seattle — it’s safe to conclude that the Rams are one of the elite teams in the NFL despite dropping to the fifth seed in the NFC. 

Despite the disappointing end to the season, the ageless Matthew Stafford amassed a stellar regular season for the Rams at the age of 37. Stafford passed for an NFL-high 4,707 yards with a career-best 46 touchdowns to 9 interceptions on 65 percent completions in 17 games. He’s the frontrunner to win the 2025 MVP award. It would be the first of his magnificent 17-year career. 

Superstar third-year wideout Puka Nacua (NFL-leading 129 catches, 1,715 yards, 10 receiving touchdowns, 1 rushing touchdown in 16 gms), veteran wideout Davante Adams (789 yards, team-leading 14 touchdowns in 14 gms), along with running backs Kyren Williams (1,252 yards, 10 touchdowns, 3 receiving touchdowns in 17 gms) and Blake Corum (746 yards, 6 touchdowns in 17 gms) racked up excellent seasons alongside Matthew Stafford in an superb Rams offense. 

Star linebackers Byron Young (82 tackles, 12 sacks, 12 tackles for loss, 1 forced fumbles in 17 gms) and Jared Verse (58 tackles, 7.5 sacks, 11 forced fumbles, 3 forced fumbles in 17 gms), along with safety Kam Curl (122 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 interceptions, 1 forced fumble in 17 gms) are standouts on a very good defense.

HOW BOTH TEAMS GOT TO THE POSTSEASON: CAROLINA

When the Carolina Panthers moved up 8 spots in the 2023 NFL Draft to select highly-touted Alabama quarterback Bryce Young, they envisioned he would quickly become a franchise quarterback and lead the team to glory. But quite the opposite happened as Young struggled as a rookie and the Panthers finished with the NFL’s worst record at 2-15 in 2023. 

Bryce Young’s NFL career appeared to be going downhill in an expeditious manner in his second season (2024) when he was benched after just 2 starts — a 47-10 loss at New Orleans and a 26-3 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers at home — into the season and replaced by veteran Andy Dalton. Young eventually regained the starting job back from Dalton and ended the 2024 campaign on a positive note leading the team to a 4-5 finish after the Panthers started the year 1-7. 

With the strong finish to the 2024 season, expectations were somewhat heightened for the Carolina Panthers and Bryce Young in 2025. Carolina’s season looked to be heading nowhere fast after a 42-13 drubbing at New England dropped them to 1-3, but they rebounded by winning 3 straight and 4 of 5 which got them to 5-4 on Nov. 2. The Panthers would go 2-2 for the rest of November and entered the month of December at 7-6.

Carolina finished the season losing 3 of their last 4, but they were the beneficiary of competing in the NFL’s worst division — the NFC South — and having the four-time defending NFC South champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers suffer an epic late-season collapse which allowed them to back into a division crown and host today’s playoff game. Carolina lost their final game of the regular season at Tampa Bay (8-9) on Jan. 3 where they could have clinched the division crown, but still won the division after Atlanta defeated New Orleans 19-17 on Jan. 4.

Despite winning the NFC South in a somewhat flimsy manner at 8-9, Carolina earned a division crown for the first time since the 2015 season. This is also Carolina’s first playoff appearance and most wins since 2017, when the finished 11-5. 

Bryce Young produced the best numbers of his career this season in year three. The 24-year-old, Alabama product registered career-highs of 3,011 yards, 23 touchdowns and 63.6 percent completions. Young also set a franchise-record with 448 yards passing in a 30-27 overtime win at Atlanta in Week 11 on Nov. 16. 

The additions of rookie wideout Tetairoa McMillan (1,014 yards, 7 touchdowns in 17 gms) and free agent running back Rico Dowdle (1,076 yards, 6 touchdowns in 17 gms) also played a role in the Carolina’s improvement this season. Carolina selected McMillan eighth overall in the 2025 NFL draft out of Arizona. McMillan led all rookies in receiving yards and broke the franchise rookie receiving yards record that was held by Kelvin Benjamin (1,008 yards in 2014).

THE PICK: RAMS (-10)

The Rams were considered the best team in the NFL for most of the season until they suffered back-to-back narrow road losses against Seattle and Atlanta. Star wideout/touchdown leader Davante Adams missed both of those contests with a hamstring injury, he’ll be back for this game against Carolina. I also expect the Rams will want to avenge the befuddling Week 13 upset loss at Carolina on Nov. 30. Lay the Points…Rams 35, Panthers 17