Cotton Bowl CFP Playoff picks 12/31: Miami Hurricanes @ Ohio State Buckeyes

Miami (FL) Hurricanes

@

Ohio State Buckeyes

by Liam Bailor for Wannamakeabet.com

Miami (FL) and Ohio State close out New Year’s Eve with a high-stakes College Football Playoff quarterfinal in Arlington — a classic mismatch-on-paper with the Buckeyes installed as double-digit favorites and the Hurricanes riding a blue-collar, bend-but-don’t-break defense that just squeaked by Texas A&M.

Team Analysis

Miami (FL)

• Season overview and recent form: Miami (11-2) earned its CFP spot with a gritty 10-3 road win over Texas A&M in the first round, a game in which the Canes leaned on the run and their defensive front to control possession and field position (Mark Fletcher Jr. 172 rushing yards).
• Trends and identity: Miami’s late-season surge (five straight wins into the Playoff) has been built on a top-tier defense that consistently holds opponents under 20 points and wins the line-of-scrimmage battle. The staff emphasizes clock control and limiting explosive plays.

Ohio State

• Season overview and recent form: Ohio State (12-1) enters off a sting from a 13-10 loss in the Big Ten title game to Indiana but still boasts one of the nation’s stingiest defenses and an efficient passing attack under Ryan Day. The Buckeyes ranked among the national leaders in scoring defense and overall defensive efficiency through the regular season.
• Motivation and matchups: The Buckeyes are the perceived “complete” team — elite defensive personnel plus enough offensive firepower to grind opponents — and they’ll be desperate to reassert themselves after the conference-title stumble.

Key Matchup Factors

• Head-to-head history: These programs’ modern-era playoff clash memory is dominated by the iconic 2003 Fiesta Bowl double-OT classic, a game that still shapes narrative when these blue-chip programs meet. Historically, Ohio State holds the edge in the small sample of meetings.
• Important player matchups:

– Miami front seven vs Ohio State offensive line — if Miami’s rushers can disrupt the pocket, they force more snaps on the Buckeyes and fewer plays for their efficiency-driven offense. – Julian Sayin (OSU QB) rhythm vs Miami secondary rotation — Miami’s coverage and pressure scheme is the primary path to an upset.

• Key injuries and news: Miami listed cornerback Damari Brown out on the first availability report while Miami expects most other contributors to be available; Ohio State carried a multi-player availability list with several probable designations but no season-ending surprises reported as of the first reports.
• Home/away performance: This is a neutral-site game at AT&T Stadium, but Ohio State’s roster (and seeding) gives it the crowd and market advantage; Miami has shown it can win in hostile environments but benefits when the game turns into a defensive slugfest.

Betting Analysis

• Spread analysis: DraftKings has Ohio State -9.5 as the primary spread and markets across books cluster around a 9–10 point edge for the Buckeyes, signaling consensus that Ohio State is a near two-score favorite. Shop lines: Caesars/BetRivers/others show minor variance but the market is painted to OSU -9.5.
• Total (over/under) analysis: Markets are fragmented with totals reported between 40.5 and 42.5 depending on the book; DraftKings’ line (as provided) is 40.5, while a number of consensus trackers show the total in the low-42s — movement reflects sharp belief this trends low given both teams’ defensive chops.
• Best value opportunities:

– Miami +9.5 to +10 (if you can get +10): Miami’s defense and time-of-possession identity plus Ohio State’s recent offensive line/short-field miscues make the Hurricanes live for a cover. Early market consensus has Miami +9.5 available across multiple books; any bump to +10 is where I’d anchor a small-unit play. – Under the total (40.5–42.5): Lean the under if the number stays at or below 42.5; both teams project slower drives and fewer explosive plays than most top-25 offenses.

• Prediction: I expect a defensive, low-possession game where Ohio State wins but Miami covers a number under two touchdowns. My game score projection: Ohio State 20, Miami 13 — bet Miami +9.5 or take the under if the total holds at 42.5 or lower.

Key Injury Statuses

• Miami

– Damari Brown — listed out on first availability (questionable in later updates according to Cristobal). – Malik Bryant (LB) and Daylyn Upshaw (WR) — listed out on initial report.

• Ohio State

– Multiple role players listed probable/doubtful on initial availability reports (WR De’Zie Jones probable; RB Anthony Rogers probable; DL Ahmed Tounkara doubtful) — none listed as game-ruining for the Buckeyes’ core.

Final pick and closing: lean Miami +9.5 if book offers +10 — otherwise take Ohio State -9.5 straight only if you prefer favorites and want the safety of a chalk play; for totals, favor the under at or below 42.5. My pick fits Wannamakeabet’s points-based system: small-unit play on Miami +9.5 (+EV), medium-unit play on Under 42.5 if posted.