by Jack Chambers for Wannamakeabet.com
Baltimore and Green Bay meet Saturday night at Lambeau Field in a Week 17 showdown that has playoff implications — Green Bay is a narrow favorite and the total is sitting in the high 30s, a clear signal this projects to be a low-to-medium scoring, pressured game.
Team Analysis
Baltimore
- Season overview and recent form
– Baltimore Ravens (7-8) have been a roller-coaster in 2025, built around a workmanlike run game and intermittent passing production; their record leaves them on the brink of elimination in the AFC North. – The Ravens lost a critical Week 16 primetime game to the Patriots after surrendering a late lead, a result that not only hurt playoff chances but exposed late-game defensive and turnover vulnerabilities.
Green Bay
- Season overview and recent form
– Green Bay Packers (9-5-1) have clinched a playoff spot and sit a slim margin behind the division leader; they’re coming off a frustrating overtime loss to the Bears that featured red-zone miscues and the loss of starter Jordan Love to a concussion. – Despite inconsistency, the Packers’ offense ranks well in points per game and yards, and Josh Jacobs/Emanuel Wilson have given them a reliable ground element that balances their attack.
Key Matchup Factors
- Head-to-head history
– These clubs haven’t met often recently; the most notable recent meeting was Green Bay’s 31-30 win in 2021 — a tight game that underlines how these two teams matchup when both defenses find buy-in.
- Important player matchups
– Ravens rush offense (Derrick Henry) vs Packers front seven: Baltimore’s run game (top-5 rushing attack this season) is its engine — Green Bay must force the Ravens to one-dimensional play to control the clock. – Packers passing attack without Jordan Love: If Love is out, Malik Willis’ mobility changes the look for Baltimore’s defense and reduces Green Bay’s vertical passing threat; Baltimore’s secondary must avoid giving up easy chunk plays.
- Key Injuries and news
– Lamar Jackson suffered a back contusion late in Week 16 and is listed doubtful for Week 17; Tyler Huntley has provided capable backup reps this season. Jordan Love was placed in concussion protocol and has been ruled out, with Malik Willis expected to start for Green Bay. Those two QB developments are the storylines that swing both the spread and total.
- Home/away performance
– Packers at Lambeau have been solid; Green Bay’s home scoring advantage and the cold-weather environment favor a ground-attack, physical style that benefits the hosts against a Ravens team primed to run. Baltimore has been better on the road than in midwest cold snaps historically, but availability of Lamar Jackson would alter that dramatically.
Betting Analysis
- Spread analysis
– DraftKings lists Green Bay -3.0; that looks sensible given home-field edge and the probable absence of both teams’ primary quarterbacks. If Lamar Jackson is ruled out and Jordan Love remains out, Green Bay’s play-caller continuity and home advantage justify the short favorite, but the uncertainty at both QB spots compresses the value on either side.
- Total (over/under) analysis
– The 38.5 total leans low — and given backup/spot-start QBs and stronger run tendencies (Ravens lean run; Packers can lean run if Willis is game manager), this projects toward the UNDER. Both defenses can tighten in a short-field, clock-control script and special teams/weather at Lambeau often suppress scoring.
- Best value opportunities
– Look for teaser or small-side moves: if Lamar Jackson is confirmed out, Baltimore is a better underdog play (+3 or greater) because Derrick Henry and RB-led clock control keep Baltimore competitive. Conversely, if Jackson plays limited snaps, the node to exploit is the UNDER 38.5 — both QBs are likely to be conservative and the game script favors fewer possessions. Monitor QB official statuses up to kickoff; late-week injury confirmations will shift the market.
- Prediction
– I expect a low-scoring, tightly contested game. If both starters are out (Jackson and Love), Packers -3 still feels like the market lean thanks to home advantage and roster continuity, but the matchup strongly favors the UNDER 38.5. My game projection: Packers 20, Ravens 14 — take the UNDER and, depending on confirmation of injuries, consider Packers -3 if Love is out and Willis starts (small unit).
Key Injury Statuses
- Baltimore
– Lamar Jackson — back contusion, listed doubtful and undergoing testing; status expected to be updated close to kickoff. – Derrick Henry — playing and productive; appears healthy following heavy usage vs. Patriots.
- Green Bay
– Jordan Love — concussion/left shoulder; downgraded to OUT for Week 17. Malik Willis — expected to start; had effective relief snaps in Week 16. Offensive-line illness/designations (Aaron Banks) are questionable.
Final pick: UNDER 38.5 (PRIMARY) — small unit on Packers -3 if Jordan Love is officially out and game-day reports show chilly, windy Lambeau conditions. This aligns with Wannamakeabet’s points-based betting system that weights injuries, home-field, and recent form — the system currently favors a low-scoring Packers win in this spot.
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