NFL picks 11/27: Green Bay @ Detroit – High Leverage Turkey game in the Motor City

Green Bay

@

Detroit

Green Bay heads to Detroit on Thanksgiving with a compact early-afternoon kickoff — a rivalry game that has big NFC North implications and an enticing market line: Detroit -3.0, Total 48.5 (DraftKings).

Team Analysis

Green Bay

• Season overview and recent form: The Packers are 7-3-1 and have won key divisional games, most recently a 23-6 win over Minnesota, moving into NFC contention.
• Injury/availability snapshot: Green Bay lost starting center Elgton Jenkins to a lower-leg fracture and placed him on IR, creating interior OL concerns; coach Matt LaFleur called Jenkins’ return “highly unlikely” this season.
• Offensive form: Jordan Love remains the signal-caller; Green Bay’s run game has been patched together after Josh Jacobs’ recent knee issue, with Emanuel Wilson stepping up vs. Minnesota.

Detroit

• Season overview and recent form: The Lions sit 7-4 and are coming off a gritty overtime victory in which Jahmyr Gibbs exploded for a monster all-purpose day that swung an ugly-looking game in Detroit’s favor.
• Injury/availability snapshot: Detroit’s core weapons — Amon‑Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Penei Sewell, and Aidan Hutchinson — have had individual bumps/allergies through the season but the team has largely managed to keep its core available; monitoring of practice reports on game-week short rest is essential.

Key Matchup Factors

• Head-to-head history: This rivalry is long and storied; Green Bay leads the historical series but recent seasons have been competitive with multiple splits — the two teams trade decisive home wins regularly.
• Important player matchups:

– Jared Goff vs. Packers pass rush — Detroit’s protection and play-calling for Goff will determine if the Lions can sustain longer drives and lean on the run/pass mix. – Jahmyr Gibbs vs. Green Bay front seven — Gibbs’ ability to break big runs (he piled up huge scrimmage yards vs. the Giants) forces Green Bay to account for the run and opens play-action for Goff.

• Key injuries and news: Jenkins’ IR is the Packers’ clearest roster hit, weakening interior line continuity and potentially impacting both pass protection and run blocking.
• Home/away performance: Detroit has home-field advantage on Thanksgiving — the Lions typically play well in Ford Field’s environment and the short-week travel wrinkle favors the home side.

Betting Analysis

• Spread analysis:

– Market: Detroit -3.0 (DraftKings); that number implies a one-score edge but still leaves room for Green Bay to cover as home underdogs/road dogs have been competitive in this rivalry. (DraftKings line noted; DraftKings page mirrored in odds listings). – Line drivers: Detroit’s offensive balance (Goff + Gibbs) vs. a Packers OL missing Jenkins suggests the edge to the Lions, but Green Bay’s recent run-form and turnover-hunting defense compress margin.

• Total (over/under) analysis:

– Book total: 48.5 — both teams have efficient red-zone scoring but also show streaky defensive play and situational conservative coaching on short weeks; interior line issues for Green Bay could lead to quick Lions drives and clock control, capping play volume.

• Best value opportunities:

– Lean to the Lions -3 if the market holds and you find -3 to -3.5; Detroit’s matchup advantage (run game + home) and short rest for Packers OL shoring makes the three-point spread thin value for the favorite. – Consider the under 48.5 as a contrarian angle if you expect clock-eating drives and conservative fourth-quarter play-calling on Thanksgiving; Green Bay’s offensive line instability and propensity for low-possession defensive games push tempo down.

• Prediction:

– I expect a physical, lower‑tempo division game where Detroit’s rushing and short-yardage control tilt the roster advantage to Detroit by a field goal. The Packers’ offensive line disruption is a real, timely edge for the Lions. – Final pick: Bet: Detroit -3.0 (play at -3 or better). Lean secondary play: Under 48.5. (DraftKings line: Detroit -3.0, Total 48.5).

Closing: Wannamakeabet’s points-based system favors clean edges and injury-driven market inefficiencies — this spot checks both boxes, so our model gives a modest points advantage to Detroit -3 while flagging the under 48.5 as contrarian value if the public prices the game as a shootout.