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The Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) are set to face the Denver Broncos (8-2) on Sunday, November 16, 2025, at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 PM ET. The Chiefs enter as 4.5-point favorites, with the over/under set at 44.5 points.
Team Analysis
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have demonstrated resilience this season, maintaining a competitive edge in the AFC West despite a 5-4 record. Their offense averages 26.1 points per game, ranking them 14th in the league. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes continues to be a pivotal force, leading the team with 3,928 passing yards and 26 touchdowns. However, the offense has faced challenges, particularly in sustaining rhythm during the early stages of games. Defensively, Kansas City ranks fourth in scoring defense, allowing 17.7 points per game, and sixth in total yards allowed (291.8). The defensive line, spearheaded by Chris Jones, has been particularly effective, contributing to the team’s overall success.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos have been on an impressive run, securing five consecutive victories, including a 10-7 win over the Las Vegas Raiders in their most recent outing. Their offense averages 23.5 points per game, with quarterback Bo Nix leading the charge. Nix has accumulated 2,126 passing yards, throwing 18 touchdowns against eight interceptions. The running game has been bolstered by J.K. Dobbins, who leads the team with 772 rushing yards. However, Dobbins is likely out for the remainder of the season due to a foot injury requiring surgery. Defensively, Denver boasts the league’s top pass rush, recording 46 sacks this season, and ranks third in total yards allowed (270.7) and points allowed (17.3). The secondary, led by cornerback Pat Surtain II, has been instrumental in limiting opposing offenses.
Key Matchup Factors
Head-to-Head History
In their most recent encounter, the Chiefs narrowly defeated the Broncos 19-8, with Mahomes throwing for 306 yards and tight end Travis Kelce contributing nine receptions for 124 yards. The Broncos’ offense struggled, managing only 197 total yards. Historically, the Chiefs have dominated the series, holding a 17-2 straight-up record in the last 19 meetings between these division rivals.
Important Player Matchups
- Patrick Mahomes vs. Denver’s Pass Rush: Mahomes’ ability to evade pressure will be crucial against Denver’s formidable pass rush. The Broncos’ defense leads the league with 46 sacks, putting them on pace to set a new NFL record. While Mahomes has only taken 17 sacks this season, the Chiefs may be inclined to throw the ball less this week to mitigate the pass rush.
- Bo Nix vs. Kansas City’s Secondary: Nix will face a challenging task against a Chiefs secondary that ranks sixth in passing yards allowed (187.2). The Chiefs’ defensive backs, including Trent McDuffie, have been effective in limiting big plays.
Injuries and News
- Kansas City Chiefs: Running back Isiah Pacheco is out with a knee injury. Offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor and guard Trey Smith are listed on the injury report but have participated fully in practice.
- Denver Broncos: Running back J.K. Dobbins is likely out for the season due to a foot injury requiring surgery. Cornerback Pat Surtain II is out with a pectoral injury. Linebacker Alex Singleton is out due to illness, and linebacker Karene Reid has been placed on injured reserve with a hamstring injury.
Home/Away Performance
The Broncos have been dominant at home, boasting a 5-0 straight-up record at Empower Field at Mile High. Their defense has been particularly effective in front of their home crowd, contributing to their overall success.
Betting Analysis
Spread Analysis
The Chiefs are favored by 4.5 points. Kansas City has a strong track record against the spread, with a 5-2 record in their last seven games. Denver, however, has been a formidable opponent, winning five consecutive games and covering the spread in four of their last ten games.
Total (Over/Under) Analysis
The over/under is set at 44.5 points. Both teams have shown defensive prowess, with the Chiefs allowing 17.7 points per game and the Broncos allowing 17.3. Additionally, the Broncos’ offense has been efficient, averaging 23.5 points per game. Considering these factors, the under may be a prudent choice.
Best Value Opportunities
- Kareem Hunt Over 42.5 Rushing Yards: With Pacheco sidelined, Hunt is expected to take on a more significant role in the running game. Denver’s rush defense is among the best in the NFL, allowing a league-low 3.6 yards per carry and just 91.2 yards per game. This matchup presents an opportunity for Hunt to exceed expectations.
Prediction
The Chiefs’ offense, led by Mahomes and Kelce, is poised to exploit Denver’s secondary, especially with the potential absence of Surtain II. However, the Broncos’ pass rush poses a significant threat to Mahomes’ mobility and decision-making. Given the Broncos’ home-field advantage and defensive strength, this game is expected to be closely contested. The under on the total points is a reasonable consideration, given both teams’ defensive capabilities.
For bettors, the Chiefs’ spread of -4.5 offers value, considering their overall offensive prowess and the Broncos’ injury challenges. However, the Broncos’ resilience and home-field advantage make them a formidable opponent, suggesting a potential for a tight game.
In conclusion, this AFC West showdown promises to be a compelling matchup, with both teams bringing strengths and facing challenges. Bettors should weigh the Chiefs’ offensive capabilities against the Broncos’ defensive prowess and home-field advantage when making their picks.