NBA Playoff Picks 4/18 – Miami Heat @ Atlanta Hawks

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The NBA Play-In Tournament concludes tonight with the No. 10 seed Miami Heat (37-45) visting the No. 8 seed Atlanta Hawks (40-42) at State Farm Arena on TNT. The Heat and Hawks split four regular season matchups with each team winning at home. All four games were decided by double digits. The winner of this game will secure the No. 8 seed and advance to the playoffs to face top-seeded Cleveland beginning on Sunday. Miami is a 1-point favorite and the total is 219.5. 

Miami advanced to tonight’s play-in game after pounding the No. 9 seed Chicago Bulls 109-90 in Chicago on Wednesday night. Miami raced out to a 15-5 lead in the first quarter and never looked back. The Heat took a 71-47 lead into halftime which prompted the Chicago crowd to boo the Bulls as they exited the court. Miami eliminated the Bulls in the play-in round for a third straight year.

Tyler Herro poured in a game-high 38 points (13-19 FG, 3-7 3Pt, 9-10 FT) and added five rebounds, four assists and a steal across 37 minutes for Miami. Herro scored 23 points in the first half which established Miami’s dominance early on. Andrew Wiggins added 20 points (8-20 FG, 4-9 3Pt), nine rebounds, two assists, two steals and two blocks in 35 minutes. Bam Adebayo registered a double-double with 15 points (6-16 FG, 1-5 3Pt, 2-4 FT) and 12 rebounds over 36 minutes. 

Atlanta suffered a 120-95 defeat at seventh-seeded Orlando on Tuesday night. Orlando jumped on Atlanta early and opened a 22 point lead (57-35) in the second quarter. Atlanta was able to pull within 71-68 late in the third quarter before Orlando took control of the game midway through the fourth quarter and won going away. Trae Young finished with a game-high 28 points (8-21 FG, 11-12 FT, 1-5 3Pt) and added six assists in the loss. Young was ejected with 4:47 left in the game after picking up two technical fouls. 

HOW BOTH TEAMS ENDED UP IN THE PLAY-IN TOURNAMENT: MIAMI

For five full seasons (2020-2024), Jimmy Butler was a stellar performer for the Miami Heat. He led Miami to the NBA Finals twice and the Eastern Conference finals once in the four postseasons where he was healthy — Butler suffered a knee injury in the play-in round last season and was unavailable for the playoffs. He earned the nickname “Playoff Jimmy” due to his knack for elevating the level of his play during the postseason. It seemed as if the 35-year-old star would finish out his magnificent NBA career in Miami. 

Unfortunately, things took a turn for the worse during the summer when Butler became eligible for a two-year, $113 million extension and Miami chose not to extend him. Miami refusing to extend Butler ended up frustrating him as this season went on, which caused him to lash out. Butler publicly asked for a trade and then walked out of a practice. Butler’s insubordination led to an indefinite suspension. Miami then traded Butler to Golden State on Feb. 7. Golden State gave Butler his coveted contract extension. 

The loss of Jimmy Butler backfired instantly for Miami as they went 4-17 in their first 21 games without him. Miami endured a 10-game losing streak during that rough 21-game stretch. The Heat fell to a season-low 12 games below .500 at 29-41 on March 21. Miami rallied to finish the year 8-4 and grab the final play-in spot with a 37-45 record. They also exacted a measure of revenge against Jimmy Butler when he returned to Miami with Golden State and lost 112-86 on March 25.

Despite the underwhelming record and tumultuous season, Miami’s mainstay duo of Tyler Herro (career-high 23.9 pts, 5.5 asts, 5.2 rebs, 3.3 threes, 47.2% from 2, 37.5% from 3 in 77 games) and three-time All-Star Bam Adebayo (18.1 pts, 9.6 rebs, 4.3 asts, 1.3 stls, 1 threes, 48.5% from 2 in 78 games) produced tremendous individual seasons. The 25-year-old Herro was named an All-Star for the first time in his career this season. He also averaged over 20 points per game for a fourth straight season.    

Miami received veteran swingman Andrew Wiggins — the No. 1 overall pick in the 2014 NBA draft — as part of the trade package for Jimmy Butler. The 30-year-old Wiggins was instrumental in Golden State’s run to capturing the 2022 NBA title. He averaged 19 points, 4.2 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.2 steals and 2.1 threes per game while shooting 45.8 percent from the floor in 17 games with Miami. Wiggins’ offensive versatility and playoff experience with Golden State could be invaluable for Miami if they win tonight and advance to face the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers.   

HOW BOTH TEAMS ENDED UP IN THE PLAY-IN TOURNAMENT: ATLANTA

In 2021, the Atlanta Hawks made a surprising run to the Eastern Conference Finals as the fifth seed. They knocked off the fourth-seeded New York Knicks in the first round and then top-seeded Philadelphia in the second round. The Hawks were led by then 21-year-old superstar guard Trae Young. The explosive Young posted averages of 28.8 points, 9.5 assists, 1.3 steals and 2.8 threes across 16 postseason games in 2021. 

It appeared as if the future was bright for Atlanta after they made it to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2021 with Trae Young anchoring a young team. But the last four seasons brought underwhelming results as Atlanta has only been able to qualify for the Play-In Tournament each season. They advanced to the actual playoffs three times and were eliminated in the first round each time. The Hawks have failed to win more than 43 games in a season over the last four years. 

Atlanta attempted to surround Trae Young with elite talent over the years — they traded for Spurs All-Star guard Dejounte Murray prior to the 2022-23 season and have had multiple lottery selections — but it failed to translate into wins. The Hawks landed the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NBA draft despite having just a 3 percent chance of winning the draft lottery. They selected Zaccharie Risacher with the No. 1 pick. The 20-year-old forward registered a pretty good rookie year (12.6 pts, 3.6 rebs, 1.6 threes, 45.8% from 2 in 75 games) but didn’t quite meet the expectations of a No. 1 overall pick. He does have the potential to be an elite player with his size, athleticism and shooting ability.

Injuries have also plagued Atlanta this year and in recent years. Star forward Jalen Johnson (18.9 pts, 10 rebs, 5 asts, 1.6 stls, 1 blk, 1.2 threes, 50% from 2) suffered a torn labrum (shoulder) on Jan. 23 against Toronto and was lost for the season. He only played in 36 games. Starting center Clint Capela (8.9 pts, 8.5 rebs, 1 blks, 55.9% from 2) has not played since March 10 due to a ligament injury on his left hand. He’s missed 27 games this season and is questionable to play in tonight’s contest against Miami.

Despite the injuries and uneven play this season, Trae Young continues to perform at an elite level. The 26-year-old Oklahoma product averaged 24.2 points, an NBA-leading 11.6 assists, 1.2 steals and 2.9 threes per game across 76 contests. His assists are also a career-high. He was selected as an All-Star for the fourth time in his 7-year NBA career this season. Over the past two seasons, Young has sacrificed his scoring slighty and raised his assists numbers. This indicates a willingness to get his teammates more involved in the offense. Young was sometimes criticized for shooting too much in previous years.

The young duo of guard Dyson Daniels (14.1 pts, 5.9 rebs, 4.4 asts, 3 stls, 1.1 threes, 49.3% from 2 in 76 games) and forward/center Onyeka Okongwu (13.4 pts, 8.9 rebs, 56.7% from 2 in 74 games) were excellent this year. The 22-year-old Daniels was part of the trade package from New Orleans in the Dejounte Murray deal. He experienced a huge leap in his first year with Atlanta, raising his points per game average from 5.8 in 2023-24 to 14.1 with the Hawks. The 24-year-old Okongwu also produced a breakout season as injuries to Jalen Johnson and Clint Capela afforded him more minutes. 

With the emergence of Dyson Daniels and Onyeka Okongwu this season, along with the potential of Zaccharie Risacher and the return of a healthy Jalen Johnson, Atlanta could have a young and talented nucleus alongside its superstar Trae Young. They could be very good in the future.

THE PICK: HEAT (-1)

I saw enough in Miami’s opening round win in the Play-In Tournament. ‘Heat Culture’ still remains even though “Playoff Jimmy” is gone. I don’t think Atlanta has enough to limit the trio of Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo and Andrew Wiggins. I expect the trio will dominate again tonight in Atlanta and end the Hawks season. Lay the Point and take the Heat