NBA Playoff Picks 4/16 – Dallas @ Sacramento

By Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The NBA Play-In Tournament continues tonight with the No. 10 seed Dallas Mavericks (39-43) visiting the No. 9 seed Sacramento Kings (40-42) at Golden 1 Center on ESPN. Sacramento dominated Dallas during the regular season winning all three meetings, including a 122-98 rout at Dallas in their most recent matchup on March 3. The winner of this game will go on the road to face the No. 8 seed Memphis Grizzlies on Friday night, while the loser will have their season come to an end. Sacramento is a 4.5-point favorite and the total is 215.5.

Dallas and Sacramento will be meeting for the fourth time in the playoffs. The teams met three straight years from 2002-2004 in the postseason. Sacramento holds a 2-1 advantage. The Kings defeated Dallas 4-1 in the 2002 Western Conference Semifinals and 4-1 in the first round of the 2004 playoffs. Dallas outlasted Sacramento 4-3 in the 2003 Western Conference Semifinals.

HOW BOTH TEAMS GOT HERE: DALLAS

The Dallas Mavericks entered the season with enormous expectations after they made a spirited run to the NBA Finals last season as the No. 5 seed. Dallas was able to get through the loaded Western Conference behind the heroics of superstar Luka Doncic. The then 25-year-old, five-time All-NBA selection Doncic posted averages of 28.8 points, 9.6 rebounds, 8.8 assists, 1.6 steals and 3.4 threes across 17 games in the Western Conference playoffs. He also registered 6 triple-doubles.

Besides a few nagging injuries for Luka Doncic, everything appeared to be fine with the Dallas Mavericks this season until February 1. On that infamous day, the Dallas Mavericks made the inexplicable decision to trade Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers in exchange for a trade package that featured superstar big man Anthony Davis. The blockbuster trade shocked the sports and non-sports world as nobody expected the young Doncic to ever be traded. It was also viewed as a lopsided trade in favor of the Lakers due to Doncic (26) being six years younger than Davis (32), who has been injury prone throughout his 13-year NBA career. 

The stunning trade of Luka Doncic ended up being a harbinger of bad things happening to Dallas. A week after the trade on Feb. 8, Anthony Davis made his debut with Dallas and was sensational — 26 points, 16 rebounds, 7 assists and 3 blocks in 31 minutes — before going down with an adductor strain late in the third quarter. The injury kept Davis out for about 6 weeks, he returned on March 24. Davis averaged 20 points, 10.1 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 2.2 blocks per game while shooting 46.1 percent from the floor in 9 regular season games with Dallas. 

Dallas suffered another major injury when star guard Kyrie Irving tore his ACL in his left knee during a loss to the Sacramento Kings on Feb. 10. He will miss the remainder of the season. Irving was also instrumental in Dallas’ run to the NBA Finals last year. Centers Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II, along with third-leading scorer P.J. Washington also missed significant amounts of time with injuries during the period Anthony Davis and Irving were out. In March, Dallas played multiple games with just 7 players due to guys being out with injuries. 

Despite the Luka Doncic trade bringing down fan morale and the team’s on-court performance, Dallas was still able to back into the final Play-In spot with a 39-43 record. Veteran sharpshooter Klay Thompson (14 pts, 3.4 rebs, 3 threes, 39.1% from 3 in 72 games), swingman Naji Marshall (career-high 13.2 pts, 4.8 rebs, 3 asts, 1 stl, 50.8% from 2 in 69 games) and veteran guard Spencer Dinwiddie (11 pts, 4.4 asts, 1.4 threes in 79 games) were the only players to escape the injury bug and participate in most of the games. 

You have to feel for the 35-year-old, four-time NBA champion Klay Thompson who signed with Dallas as a free agent expecting to be playing for a title contender, not a sub-500 team. The 27-year-old Naji Marshall averaged double figures in scoring for the first time in his five-year NBA career. If Anthony Davis, P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II can stay healthy and perform at peak levels, Dallas may be able to get out of the Play-In round and be somewhat competitive with top-seeded Oklahoma City in the first round of the playoffs. 

HOW BOTH TEAMS GOT HERE: SACRAMENTO

Two seasons ago (2022-23), the Sacramento Kings — led by the young All-Star duo of De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis — were the surprise of the NBA when they posted a 48-34 record, won the Pacific Division and finished as the No. 3 seed in the stacked Western Conference. The Kings increased their win total by 18 games over the previous season, made the postseason for the first time since since 2006 and won their most games since the 2004-05 season when a Peja Stojajovic-led squad finished 50-32. 

It appeared as if Sacramento would be a team of the future after their 48-win campaign in 2022-23 but they’ve regressed to a 40-42 team in 2 seasons. The Kings won two fewer games in 2024 (46-36) but slipped to the No. 9 seed in the stacked Western Conference, and had their season end at New Orleans in the Play-In Round. Despite the disappointing conclusion to the 2023-24 campaign, the Kings were optimistic that things would turn back around in 2025. 

Sacramento added veteran star guard Demar Derozan in a sign-and-trade deal prior to this season and were expecting a boost from the playoff-tested, six-time All-Star. But they got off to a disappointing 13-18 start this season, which led to the firing of head coach Mike Brown on Dec. 27. Later in the year, star guard De’Aaron Fox became disgruntled with the direction of the team and refused to sign a long-term deal which led to Sacramento trading him to San Antonio on Feb. 2. 

Sacramento landed high-scoring, uber-athletic swingman Zach LaVine in the three-team deal for De’Aaron Fox. Acquiring the two-time All-Star LaVine reunited him with DeMar Derozan, the two were teammates in Chicago for three seasons from 2021-2022 through 2023-24. Reuniting the high scoring duo was unable to turn things around for the Kings as they went 15-18 after adding LaVine. The firing of Mike Brown and the loss of Fox put a damper on the entire 2024-25 season resulting in an underwhelming 40-42 finish. 

Despite the disappointing and turbulent season for Sacramento, they received outstanding individual performances from the trio of Demar Derozan (22.2 pts, 4.4 asts, 3.9 rebs, 1.1 threes, 47.7% from 2 in 77 games), Domantas Sabonis (19.1 pts, 13.9 rebs, 6 asts, 59% from 2, 41.7% from 3 in 70 games) and super sub Malik Monk (17.2 pts, 5.6 asts, 3.8 rebs, 2.1 threes in 65 games). The 28-year-old Sabonis led the NBA in rebounding. Zach LaVine averaged 22.2 points and 3.1 threes per game on 51.1 percent shooting from the floor and 44.6 percent from long distance in his 32 games with Sacramento.

The Kings were dealt a tough blow when it was announced that guard Malik Monk would miss tonight’s game with a left calf strain. He sustained the injury during a win at Detroit on April 7. Monk could return for the first round of the playoffs if Sacramento advances out of the Play-In Tournament. Sacramento will rely on third-year guard Keon Ellis to fill the void for Monk.  

THE PICK: KINGS (-4.5)

When you have two teams that have had disappointing seasons — who may not necessarily be motivated to win — I tend to lean towards the home team. Sacramento’s raucous home crowd should also be a factor in this game for a Kings team that can be explosive with multiple explosive scorers who are capable of putting up at least 25 in any game. I don’t think an undermanned Dallas squad has enough to keep up with the firepower of the Kings tonight…Lay the Points and take the Kings!