NBA Picks 4/13 – Denver Nuggets @ Houston Rockets

By Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The NBA’s regular season concludes today with two of the top teams in the Western Conference squaring off as the Denver Nuggets (49-32, fourth in the Western Conference) visit the Houston Rockets (52-29, second in the Western Conference) this afternoon at Toyota Center. The Nuggets and Rockets split the first two matchups with each team winning on the road. Houston has won five of the last seven against Denver. The teams could meet again in the Western Conference finals. Denver is a 9.5-point favorite and the total is 233.5.

Denver is coming off a 117-109 victory against Memphis at home on Friday night. The win was huge for Denver as it strengthened their hold on the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the opening round of the playoffs. Denver will lock up the No. 4 seed and claim their 50th victory with a win today against Houston. The Nuggets would also surpass the 50-win mark for a third straight season.

Nikola Jokic amassed 26 points (11-19 FG, 1-2 3Pt, 3-7 FT), 16 rebounds, 13 assists and two steals across 41 minutes in Friday’s victory over Memphis. Jokic recorded his third straight triple-double and 34th of the season. Aaron Gordon scored a game-high 33 points (13-23 FG, 2-7 3Pt, 5-6 FT) and added five rebounds, one steal and one block in 41 minutes. Jamal Murray chipped in with 15 points (5-12 FG, 1-4 3Pt, 4-5 FT), seven assists and five rebounds over 32 minutes in his return from a right hamstring injury.

The undermanned Houston Rockets were walloped 140-109 on the road against the Los Angeles Lakers in their previous game on Friday night. The Rockets were without six of its top seven scorers. Jalen Green was the only Rockets starter to play against the Lakers. He logged just 15 minutes and sat for the entire second half. Green has played in 184 consecutive games, so he’ll likely get limited minutes against Denver today to keep the streak alive. Cam Whitmore scored a team-high 34 points (13-19 FG, 7-12 3Pt, 1-1 FT) and grabbed eight rebounds across 37 minutes in the loss to the Lakers. 

Today’s game has a sense of mystery to it due to the status of the Houston Rockets starters and top rotation players. The Rockets have sat their top players for the last two games after clinching the No. 2 seed in a 106-96 win at Golden State one week ago on April 6. It was assumed that the Rockets would hold out their regulars again today, but reports came out late last night that every healthy Rockets player will be available for today’s game against Denver and likely get their regular workload. How long they’ll play may still be unknown as we’ve seen teams who have nothing to play for sit their starters in the second half of games.  

2024-25 SEASON REVIEW: HOUSTON

From 2021-2023, the Houston Rockets made a series of shrewd personnel decisions — drafting Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun in 2021, hiring Ime Udoka in April 2023, signing Fred VanVleet as a free agent and drafting Amen Thompson in the summer of 2023 — that led to a 19-game improvement (22-60 to 41-41) during the 2023-24 season. Houston was unable to grab a playoff spot last season but they made significant progress by finishing at .500 and provided optimism for the future of the franchise.

Houston’s tremendous improvement in 2024 carried over to this season as they got off to a 15-6 start and have not looked back. At 52-29, the Rockets have their most wins since the 2018-19 season when they finished 53-29. They’ve also secured the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference playoffs, which is their highest seed since 2017-18 when they finished first and advanced to the Western Conference finals.

The young duo of Jalen Green (21.2 pts, 4.6 rebs, 3.2 asts, 2.9 threes in 81 games) and Alperen Sengun (19.2 pts, 10.4 rebs, 4.9 asts, 1.1 stls, 49.6% from 2 in 75 games) led the way for the Rockets again this season. The 23-year-old Green has averaged nearly 20 points per game in three of his four NBA seasons. He also has the third longest consecutive games streak (184) among active players. The 22-year-old Sengun will average a double-double for the first time in his career. He’ll end the season with 45 double-doubles. 

The improvement of second-year swingman Amen Thompson was also key to the Rockets ascent to the top of the Western Conference standings. The Rockets selected Thompson fourth overall in the 2023 NBA draft out of the G-League. After a respectable rookie year (9.5 ppg, 6.6 rpg), Thompson emerged as one of the NBA’s most versatile, two-way players this season. The 22-year-old guard/forward averages 14 points, 8.2 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.3 blocks per game while shooting 55.5 percent from the floor across 68 games.  

Head coach Ime Udoka is also getting a lot of credit for Houston’s turnaround over the last two seasons. Udoka received universal praise for guiding a young Boston Celtics squad to the NBA finals in 2022. He was unexpectedly fired a few months later for having relations with a female staff member. The Rockets inked Udoka to a massive 4-year, $28 million deal about a year after Boston fired him, and it has paid off tremendously as he’s guided the Rockets to a second-place finish in the stacked Western Conference and appears to have them primed to be contenders for the foreseeable future. 

2024-25 SEASON REVIEW: DENVER

Behind the superhuman efforts of superstar Nikola Jokic, the Denver Nuggets won the franchise’s first NBA championship in 2023. Jokic produced a historic NBA Finals where he posted averages of 30.2 points, 14 rebounds, 7.2 assists and 1.4 blocks while shooting 58.3 percent from the floor and 42.1 percent from long distance as Denver knocked off the pesky Miami Heat in 5 games. Jokic was named the Finals MVP. Denver went 16-4 in the 2023 postseason. 

After a dominant 2023 postseason run, Denver appeared to be on the verge of winning multiple titles or making multiple NBA Finals appearances in the near future. But they were upset by the young Minnesota Timberwolves — who won Game 7 at Denver — in the Western Conference semis last year and then shockingly fired head coach Michael Malone five days ago on April 8. 

The firing of Michael Malone was stunning when you consider there was less than a week left in the regular season and Denver was still in position to finish as high as third in the Western Conference. Malone had coached Denver for the past 10 seasons, compiled a 471-327 record and won the franchise’s only NBA title. He is the franchise’s all-time leader in wins. Denver also fired general manager Calvin Booth. It’s been speculated that Malone and Booth did not see eye to eye on roster construction which caused internal dissension. Ownership decided firing both was the best solution. Assistant David Adelman was named the interim head coach. 

Despite the stunning turn of events recently that has hijacked Denver’s season, three-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic registered perhaps his finest season to date. The 30-year-old Jokic is averaging 29.8 points, 12.8 rebounds, 10.3 assists, 1.3 steals, and 2 threes per game while shooting 57.5 percent from the floor and 41.4 percent from long distance in 69 games. He’ll become the third player in NBA history to average a triple-double, joining Oscar Robertson and current teammate Russell Westbrook. 

The foursome of Jamal Murray (21.5 pts, 6.1 asts, 3.8 rebs, 1.4 stls, 2.3 threes, 47.5% from 2, 39.4% from 3 in 66 games), Michael Porter Jr. (18.1 pts, 7 rebs, 2.5 threes, 50.2% from 2, 39.3% from 3 in 76 games), Christian Braun (15.5 pts, 5.2 rebs, 1.1 stls, 1.1 threes, 58% from 2, 39.9% from 3 in 78 games) and Aaron Gordon (14.6 pts, 4.8 rebs, 53.1% from 2, 43.8% from 3 in 50 games) are having great seasons alongside Jokic. If these four can stay healthy in the playoffs, Denver could make another appearance in the NBA Finals. 

THE PICK: ROCKETS (+9.5)

This appeared to be an easy win for the Nuggets as the Rockets were expected to play their “JV” lineup this afternoon for a third straight game. But it looks as if the Rockets will play its starters/rotation players and give them their regular workload. With this being the case, I expect the Rockets to easily cover the number if the line stays at nine. The line may experience a significant shift in Houston’s favor at some point prior to the game. If you can get the Rockets (+9)…Take the Points today!!