NFL Picks 12/30 – Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers

NFL Picks 12/30 – Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The Detroit Lions (13-2) visit the San Francisco 49ers (6-9) on Monday Night Football at Levi’s Stadium. This is a rematch of last season’s NFC Championship Game played on Jan. 28. The top-seeded 49ers overcame a 17-point halftime deficit to defeat the third-seeded Lions 34-31. San Francisco has dominated Detroit winning 17 of the last 19 matchups dating back to 1985. Detroit’s last win at San Francisco occurred in 1975. Detroit is a 3.5-point favorite and the total is 50.5. Prior to the season, San Francisco opened as a 4.5-point in this game which indicates how disappointing their season has been. 

Detroit is coming off a 34-17 win at Chicago last week. The victory was their franchise-best 13th win of the season which broke a tie with the 1991 and 2023 teams. Detroit set two other franchise marks last week, they improved to 7-0 on the road which set the franchise record for most road wins in a season, and their 493 points scored set a single-season record. 

Jared Goff completed 23 of 32 passes for 336 yards with 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in Sunday’s win at Chicago. He threw for 254 yards in the first half. Goff has thrown for 830 yards and eight touchdowns over his last two games. Wide receiver Jameson Williams caught five passes for a career-high 143 yards for Detroit. Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for 109 yards on 23 carries and a touchdown. He added five catches for 45 yards. It was Gibbs’ first 100 yard rushing game since a 52-14 Week 8 win against Tennessee on Oct. 27.

Injury-depleted San Francisco is coming off a 29-17 loss at Miami last week. The 49ers were eliminated from playoff contention before the game started after Washington and the Los Angeles Rams won earlier in the day. However, the loss did ensure the 49ers first losing season since 2020. Brock Purdy completed 26 of 40 passes for 313 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. He rushed for a team-high 26 yards on four carries. Deebo Samuel Sr. caught seven passes for a team-high 96 yards and a touchdown. It was high highest receiving total since a 102-yard output at Seattle on Oct. 10. 

GAME STORYLINES: DETROIT

For 50+ years, the Detroit Lions franchise was the epitome of futility as they never won or participated in a Super Bowl  since the AFL/NFL merger in 1970. Detroit’s long-term ineptitude was puzzling when you consider they had arguably the greatest running back in NFL history in Barry Sanders for 10 seasons (1989-1998) and one of the greatest wide receivers in NFL history in Calvin Johnson for 9 seasons (2007-2015). 

A series of shrewd moves from Detroit’s management beginning with the hiring of head coach Dan Campbell in January 2021 has transformed Detroit into one of the elite franchises in the NFL. Detroit also trading for Rams quarterback in March 2021 and nailing draft picks such as Penei Sewell (7th overall, 2021), Amon-Ra St. Brown (4th Rd, 2021), Aidan Hutchinson (2nd overall, 2022), Jameson Williams (12th overall, 2022) Kerby Joseph (3rd Rd, 2022) and Jahmyr Gibbs (12th overall, 2023) has culminated in the stellar play we’ve seen from them over these past two seasons.  

Last season, Detroit finished 12-5 tying the franchise record for wins in a season and they advanced to the NFC title game for the first time since the 1991 season. The Lions followed that up with an even better season this year as they enter Monday night’s game with the best record in the NFC at 13-2. Detroit has a franchise-record 13 wins and are in a good position to finish as the top seed in the NFC. 

NFL Picks 12/30 – Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers

That catalyst for Detroit’s success in 2024 has been a combination of their explosive offense and big-play defense. Leading the way for the offense is quarterback Jared Goff (4,095 passing yards, career-high 33 touchdowns to 10 interceptions, 71.4% completions in 15 games), running back Jahmyr Gibbs (1,156 rushing yards, 12 touchdowns, 440 receiving yards, 3 receiving touchdowns in 15 games) along with wideouts Amon-Ra St. Brown (1,126 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns in 15 games) and Jameson Williams (890 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns in 13 games). 6-foot-5, 335-pound All-Pro left tackle Penei Sewell is one of the best offensive linemen in the NFL.

The only blemish on Detroit’s spectacular season has been the injuries. All-Pro defensive end Aidan Hutchinson (7.5 sacks, 1 forced fumble in 5 games), running back David Montgomery (775 rushing yards, 12 touchdowns in 14 games), linebacker Alex Anzalone (56 tackles, 1 sack in 9 games), defensive tackle Alim McNeil (25 tackles, 3.5 sacks in 14 games), linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez (43 tackles, 2.5 sacks in 10 games) and cornerback Carlton Davis III (56 tackles, 2 interceptions, 2 fumble recoveries, 1 force fumble in 13 games) all suffered season-ending injuries at various points during the year. They hope to have most of them back during the postseason.

GAME STORYLINES: SAN FRANCISCO

The San Francisco 49ers entered the 2024 season as one of the Super Bowl favorites due to the overwhelming success they’ve experienced in recent years. Over the past 5 seasons, the 49ers made the Super Bowl in the 2019 and 2023, and back-to-back NFC Championship games in 2021 and 2022. With an uber-talented core of players returning, it was expected that the 49ers would be one of the elite teams again in 2024.

Unfortunately for San Francisco, injuries to key players that began in the preseason and continued throughout the year has derailed the 2024 season. The 49ers went from being within seconds of winning the Super Bowl last year to completely missing the playoffs this year and finishing below .500 for the first time since 2020. 

The injury bug bit San Francisco before the season even started as All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey (1,459 rushing yards, 564 receiving yards, 21 total touchdowns last season) began the year on IR with a calf/Achilles injury. He missed the first 9 weeks of the season and didn’t make his season debut until Nov. 10 at Tampa Bay. McCaffrey would play just 3 more games before sustaining a season-ending knee injury at Buffalo on Dec. 1. His season ended with 202 rushing yards, 146 receiving yards and no touchdowns in 4 games. After being injury-prone during the 2020 and 2021 seasons with the Carolina Panthers — he missed a combined 23 games during those seasons, McCaffrey had been durable during his almost 2 full seasons with the 49ers. 

NFL Picks 12/30 – Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers

Wide Receiver Brandon Aiyuk (team-leading 1,342 receiving yards last season), backup running back Jordan Mason (789 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns in 12 games this season), All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams (ankle) and defensive tackle Javon Hargrave (44 tackles, 7 sacks in 16 games last season) were all placed on the season-ending IR at various points of the season. Hargrave (triceps) only played in 3 games this year. Aiyuk played in just 7 games after tearing his ACL and MCL in a Week 7 game against the Chiefs. Mason did an admirable job filling in for Christian McCaffrey before suffering a season-ending ankle injury in Week 13 at Buffalo. 

As for healthy San Francisco players, All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner (team-leading 117 tackles, 2 interceptions, 1 pick-six, 1 sack, 4 forced fumbles across 15 games) continues to produce at an elite level in his seventh season. The 28-year-old BYU product will likely be named an All-Pro for a fourth time in his career this season. Warner has anchored the defense during the 49ers five-year stretch of deep playoff runs and has been a durable player during his 7 NFL seasons. 

Pro Bowl tight end George Kittle (967 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns in 13 games), quarterback Brock Purdy (3,487 passing yards, 17 touchdowns to 10 interceptions in 14 games), wide receiver Jauan Jennings (career-high 856 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns in 13 games) and wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. (665 receiving yards, 120 rushing yards, 7 total touchdowns in 14 games) are also having good seasons. The emergence of Jennings has been one of the few bright spots for the 49ers this season. The 27-year-old, fourth-year Tennessee product will establish career highs in catches, yards and touchdowns this season after playing a minimal role in the offense during his first 3 years with the team.

THE PICK: LIONS (-3.5)

Detroit should have revenge on their mind after losing to the 49ers on this same field in the NFC Championship game last January. Detroit also has a lot to play for while the depleted 49ers are a shell of their former selves and have nothing to play for. Lay the Points…Lions 35, 49ers 24

 

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