NFL Picks 11/17 – Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

NFL Picks 11/17 – Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The Seattle Seahawks (4-5) visit the San Francisco 49ers (5-4) in an NFC West showdown on Sunday afternoon at Levi’s Stadium. The division rivals are meeting for the second this season. San Francisco knocked off Seattle 36-24 in Week Ten on Thursday Night Football. They’ve now won six in a row against Seattle. The Seahawks last win against the 49ers came in December 2021. San Francisco is a 6.5-point favorite and the total is 48. 

Seattle had a bye last week but enters Sunday’s game reeling after a 26-20 overtime loss to the Los Angeles Rams at home on Nov. 3. Matthew Stafford connected on a 39-yard touchdown pass to Demarcus Robinson in overtime that gave the Rams the victory. Geno Smith completed 21 of 34 passes for 363 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions in a losing effort. Wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba hauled in 7 catches for a career-high 180 yards and two touchdowns. Seattle has lost five of their last six games since starting the season 3-0. They’ve also lost four straight home games. 

San Francisco is coming off a last-second 23-20 win at Tampa Bay last week. 49ers kicker Jake Moody nailed a 44-yard field goal as time expired. Moody had missed three field goal attempts (44, 49 and 50 yards) before hitting the game winner. All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey made his season debut after missing the first nine weeks of the season with an Achilles injury. He finished with 13 carries for 39 yards and 6 catches for 68 yards in the win. Brock Purdy completed 25 of 36 passes for a season-high 353 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. 

GAME STORYLINES: SEATTLE

Following the 2021 season, the Seattle Seahawks made the difficult decision to part ways with franchise quarterback Russell Wilson. For 10 seasons (2012-2021) Russell Wilson experienced tremendous success with Seattle making two straight Super Bowl appearances, winning Super Bowl XLVIII (48) in February 2014 and narrowly losing to New England the following season. Wilson was selected to the Pro Bowl in 9 of his 10 seasons with Seattle. He’s also the franchise leader in passing yards, passing touchdowns, passing yards in a season and passing touchdowns in a season. 

Many believed Seattle was in full rebuilding mode after Russell Wilson was traded to Denver in March 2022 and the team naming back-up journeyman Geno Smith as the starting quarterback. Seattle was Smith’s fourth team in seven seasons when he joined the squad in 2020. But Smith shocked the world in his first season as a starter passing for career-highs of 4,282 yards and 30 touchdowns in 2022. He led the Seattle to a surprising 9-8 record and a playoff spot. He was also named to the Pro Bowl for the first time in his career. Seattle rewarded Smith with a 3-year, $105 million extension in March 2023. 

NFL Picks 11/17 – Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

After putting together another strong season (3,624 passing yards, 20 touchdowns to 9 interceptions) last year and leading Seattle to a second straight 9-8 record, Geno Smith’s production has tailed off a bit this year. The 34-year-old Smith has already thrown 10 interceptions in 9 games this season which is one more than he threw in 15 games last year and one less than he threw in his renaissance season of 2022. If Smith can cut down on the interceptions, he still has a chance to lead Seattle to a division crown in the bunched-up NFC West where just 2 games separates all four teams. Arizona currently sits in first place at 6-4.

Seattle’s offense features a trio of young and talented skill position players in star wide receiver D.K. Metcalf (35 catches for 568 yards, 3 touchdowns in 7 games this season), third-year running back Kenneth Walker II (398 rushing yards, 217 receiving yards, 7 total touchdowns in 7 games) and second-year wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (50 catches for 568 yards, 3 touchdowns). Metcalf has missed the last 2 games with an MCL sprain in his knee. He’s expected to return for Sunday’s game against the 49ers. The 22-year-old Smith-Njigba was Seattle’s first round pick — No. 20 overall — in the 2023 draft and had a career-high 180 receiving yards in last week’s loss against the Los Angeles Rams. 

GAME STORYLINES: SAN FRANCISCO 

For the past five seasons, the San Francisco 49ers have been on the verge of winning the Super Bowl but have come up just short. They advanced to the Super Bowl in the 2019 and 2023 seasons where they lost close games to the Kansas City Chiefs. In between those Super Bowl appearances they made back to back trips to the NFC Championship game in 2021 and 2022. Expectations for the 2024 season and beyond are extremely high for San Francisco as they have a fairly young core of key players who have been instrumental to the current run of excellence. 

The 2024 season got off to an inauspicious for the 49ers when it was revealed that All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey would begin the year on injured reserve due to an Achilles injury. The injury kept him out for the first 9 weeks of the season. After being injury prone during the 2020 and 2021 seasons with the Carolina Panthers, McCaffrey had been durable since being traded to the 49ers in the middle of the 2022 season. He only missed one game as a 49er prior to this year.

NFL Picks 11/17 – Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

The injury news got worse for San Francisco when 2023 breakout star Brandon Aiyuk suffered a season-ending injury after tearing his ACL and MCL during a Week 7 loss against Kansas City. Aiyuk led the 49ers in catches and receiving yards last year. Wideouts Deebo Samuel Sr. and Jauan Jennings, along with All-Pro tight end George Kittle (team-leading 43 catches for 560 yards and 7 touchdowns in 8 games)  have all dealt with injuries that caused each to miss time and carry questionable tags prior several games this year.

As for healthy 49er players, quarterback Brock Purdy continues to excel in year three. After being the last player selected in the 2022 NFL draft, Purdy has become one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL. His 4,280 passing yards last year broke the single-season franchise record set by Jeff Garcia in 2000. This year Purdy has passed for 2,454 yards with 12 touchdowns to 7 interceptions through 9 games. Purdy’s season high 353 passing yards last week coincided with the season debut of superstar running back Christian McCaffrey which may indicate a Purdy/49ers surge could be on the horizon. 

Running back Jordan Mason (690 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns in 9 games) did an admirable job filling in for Christian McCaffrey over the first nine games of the season. The 49ers signed Mason as an undrafted free agent out of Georgia Tech in 2022 and he began the season with three 100-yard games over his first 4 games. He only registered one carry in last week’s win at Tampa Bay with the return of McCaffrey and will likely remain a distant backup due to the McCaffrey’s high usage in games. Mason has proven himself to be a formidable replacement if McCaffrey get injured again. 

San Francisco’s traditionally strong defense has been somewhat down this year due to injuries to stars like defensive end Javon Hargrave, safety Talanao Hufanga and linebacker Dre Greenlaw. Greenlaw tore his Achilles during the Super Bowl last February and is attempting to return this year. All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner (75 tackles, 1 sack, 2 interceptions, 4 forced fumbles in 9 games) and star defensive end Nick Bosa (22 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 8 tackles for loss, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery in 9 games) continue to play at a high level and anchor the defense. 

THE PICK: 49ERS (-6.5)

The 49ers have dominated the Seahawks in recent years as they’ve won 6 in a row against them dating back to the 2021 season. I don’t see why anything would change here, especially with superstar running back Christian McCaffrey back on the field! Lay the Points…49ers 37, Seahawks 23

NFL Picks 11/17 – Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers