NFL Picks 10/26 – Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

NFL Picks 10/26 – Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

Week Eight presents a matchup of long time AFC South division rivals as the second-place Indianapolis Colts (4-3) visit the first-place Houston Texans (5-2) at NRG Stadium. Houston and Indianapolis have competed in the AFC South division since its inception in 2002. The teams are meeting for the second time this season, Houston eked out a 29-27 win at Indianapolis in the season opener on Sep. 8. Houston has won three of the last four against the Colts and three straight at Indianapolis. Houston is a 5-point favorite and the total is 45. 

Indianapolis is coming off a 16-10 win against the visiting Miami Dolphins last week. Both teams were unable to generate much offense as neither team produced a 200-yard passer, 100-yard receiver, or 100-yard rusher. Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson completed just 10 of 24 passes for 129 yards but he did lead the team with 56 rushing yards on 14 carries. He led two fourth-quarter field goal drives that broke a 10-10 tie and provided the final margin of victory. All seven of the Colts games this year have been decided by six points or less.

Houston suffered a last-second 24-22 loss at Green Bay last week. Green Bay kicker Brandon McManus nailed a 45-yard field goal as time expired to give the Packers the win. Quarterback C.J. Stroud struggled in the loss at Green Bay completing just 10 of 21 passes for a career-low 86 yards. Running back Joe Mixon carried the offense while Stroud struggled, he finished with 115 yards on 25 carries and two touchdowns. Mixon has produced back-to-back 100-yard games since his return from an ankle injury that kept him out for 3 games.

GAME STORYLINES: INDIANAPOLIS

After the unexpected retirement of franchise quarterback Andrew Luck in August 2019, the Indianapolis were left scrambling for a viable starting quarterback for the next four seasons. The Colts started 7 different quarterbacks in those four seasons following Luck’s retirement. They were able to land the fourth pick in the 2022 NFL draft after finishing with a 4-12-1 record. The Colts selected Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson with that pick.

Unfortunately, the jury is still out on whether Anthony Richardson can become the franchise quarterback that Indianapolis envisioned when they selected him fourth overall. His brief NFL career has already been marred by injuries and inconsistent play. Richardson was limited to just 4 games as a rookie after an AC joint injury in his right throwing shoulder ended his season in Week 5. He also missed a game due to a concussion. Richardson did show some promise by passing for 3 touchdowns to 1 interception and rushing for 4 touchdowns in his brief rookie season. 

NFL Picks 10/26 – Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

Expectations were high for Anthony Richardson entering the 2024 season but injuries and subpar passing stats have doomed him in year two. Richardson suffered an oblique injury early in a game against Pittsburgh on Sep. 29. He missed the next 2 games and returned for last week’s win against Miami. Richardson’s individual stats have been underwhelming when he’s played this season. He’s thrown for 3 touchdowns to 6 interceptions while completing 48.5 percent of his passes across 5 games. Richardson’s has been effective with his feet rushing for 197 yards on 35 carries — 5.6 yards per carry — and a touchdown. 

Colts Pro Bowl running back Jonathan Taylor has also suffered through an assortment of injuries in recent years. After rushing for a league-high 1,811 yards in his second season (2021), an ankle injury in 2022 and a thumb injury last year caused him to miss a total of 9 games over the previous 2 seasons. He’s missed the last 3 games with a high ankle sprain but is expected back for Sunday’s game at Houston. Taylor has rushed for 349 yards and 4 touchdowns in the 4 games he’s played and has eclipsed the 100-yard mark twice.

Veteran quarterback Joe Flacco did a phenomenal job filling in for Anthony Richardson. The 39-year-old, Super Bowl champion threw for 716 yards with 7 touchdowns to 1 interception while completing 65.7 percent of his passes across 3 appearances for the Colts. He returned to the bench for last Sunday’s win against the Miami but he’s shown himself to be a more than capable substitute or possible replacement for Anthony Richardson. 

Wideouts Alec Pierce (383 receiving yards, 3 touchdowns through 7 games in 2024) and Michael Pittman Jr. (336 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns in 7 games) are both key weapons in the Colts offense. The 24-year-old speedster Pierce is having a breakout season in year three. The 27-year-old Pittman has led the Colts in receiving yards for the last three seasons (2021-2023). The back-up running back tandem of Tyler Goodson (128 rushing yards, 49 receiving yards, 1 touchdown) and Trey Sermon (127 rushing yards, 45 receiving yards, 2 rushing touchdowns) have done a serviceable job filling in for Jonathan Taylor over the past few weeks. 

GAME STORYLINES: HOUSTON

Following the tumultuous departure of franchise quarterback Deshaun Watson after the 2020 season, the Houston Texans bottomed out at 3-13-1 in 2022. They missed out on getting the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft by winning 2 of their final games. Houston “settled” for the second pick in the 2023 draft and selected Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud while Carolina took Alabama quarterback Bryce Young with the first pick. 

In what ended up being a surprising turn of events, C.J. Stroud took the NFL by storm as a rookie while Bryce Young struggled with Carolina. Stroud compiled one of the best rookie seasons in NFL history last year finishing with 4,108 passing yards, 23 touchdowns to 5 interceptions and completing 63.9 percent of his passes across 15 games. He led Houston to a 10-7 record — a 7-game improvement over the previous season — and their first division title since 2018. Houston went on to pound the Cleveland Browns 45-14 in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. 

NFL Picks 10/26 – Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

C.J. Stroud has continued his stellar play this season in year two. He’s passed for 1,663 yards with 10 touchdowns to 4 interceptions while completing 66.4 percent of his passes. He ranks among the top 10 in passing yards and passing touchdowns. Stroud has an outside shot at winning the NFL MVP award if he can string together some more big performances and Houston remains atop the AFC South division.

Houston added two former Pro Bowlers in running back Joe Mixon (401 rushing yards, 5 total touchdowns in 4 games) and wideout Stefon Diggs (415 receiving yards, 3 touchdowns in 7 games) in the offseason to solidify a young offense and possibly signal the franchise is now in ‘Super Bowl or Bust’ mode. The 28-year-old Mixon has been outstanding this season when healthy. An ankle injury suffered in Week 2 forced Mixon to miss 3 games but he has surpassed the 100-yard mark in the 3 games that he finished.

Houston suffered a tough blow when star wide receiver Nico Collins went down with a hamstring injury against Buffalo on Oct. 6. Collins was placed on injured reserve on Oct. 9 and is not eligible to return until Week 10 against Detroit on Nov. 10. The 25-year-old Collins was off to a blistering start before the injury. He amassed 45 catches for 567 yards and 3 touchdowns through 5 games. Collins was leading the NFL in receiving yards by a wide margin before the injury.

The Texans highly-rated defense is led by superstar defensive end Will Anderson Jr. Houston selected the 23-year-old Alabama product in the first round of the 2023 draft, along with C.J. Stroud. They traded up 9 spots to select him at No. 3. Anderson has 20 tackles, 6.5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss through 7 games for a Houston defense that ranks among the top 5 in sacks, yards allowed per game and interceptions. 

THE PICK: TEXANS (-5)

The Texans are undefeated at home this year and I think their defense will be able to fluster Anthony Richardson. Lay the Points…Texans 27, Colts 17