NFL Picks 9/8 – Jacksonville Jags @ Miami Dolphins

NFL Picks 9/8 – Jacksonville Jags @ Miami Dolphins

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The 2024 NFL season kicks off with an in-state battle as the Jacksonville Jaguars visit the Miami Dolphins on Sunday afternoon at Hard Rock Stadium. The teams are meeting for the first time since October 2021 when Jacksonville defeated Miami 23-20 at home. Jacksonville has won two of the last three matchups at Miami dating back to the 2006 season. They’ve won three of the last four overall against Miami since the 2015 season.Miami is a 3.5-point favorite and the total is 49.   

GAME STORYLINES: JACKSONVILLE

After finishing the 2020 season with a 1-15 record, the Jacksonville Jaguars landed the highly coveted No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and selected Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The 6-foot-6 Lawrence became one of the most ballyhoed quarterback prospects in NFL history after a stellar three-year career at Clemson that saw him compile a 34-2 record as a starter and pass for 90 touchdowns. He also led Clemson to an 11-0 record and the 2017-18 National Championship crown as a true freshman. 

The jury may still be out on Trevor Lawrence as he enters year four because he’s had a somewhat uneven career up to this point. The 24-year-old Lawrence struggled as a rookie throwing for 12 touchdowns and an NFL-high 17 interceptions for a Jacksonville team that finished 3-14. He made tremendous improvement in year two passing for 4,113 yards with 25 touchdowns to 8 interceptions and 5 rushing touchdowns across 17 games. Lawrence led the 9-8 Jaguars to the NFC South division crown and their first playoff win since 2017. 

Last season, Trevor Lawrence’s production took a slight dip (4,016 passing yards, 21 touchdowns to 14 interceptions in 16 games) while Jacksonville suffered through a stunning late-season meltdown where they lost 6 of their last 7 games to finish 9-8 and miss the playoffs. Nagging injuries to his ankle and shoulder throughout the 2023 season may have been a big factor in his numbers declining. While Lawrence has had a pretty good NFL career up to this point, he hasn’t quite lived up to the ‘generational talent’ labels bestowed upon him prior to the 2021 draft. 

NFL Picks 9/8 – Jacksonville Jags @ Miami Dolphins

Running back Trevor Etienne Jr. (1,008 rushing yards, 476 receiving yards, 12 total touchdowns last year), wideout Christian Kirk ( 57 catches for 787 yards, 3 touchdowns) and tight end Evan Engram (114 catches for 963 yards, 4 touchdowns) are key returning players on Jacksonville’s offense. The 25-year-old Etienne played at Clemson with Trevor Lawrence and was also a 1st round selection – No. 25 overall – in the 2021 NFL draft. He’s posted back-to-back 1,000 yard rushing seasons after missing his entire rookie season with a Lisfranc injury to his left foot. The 30-year-old Engram recorded a career-highs in catches and yards last season with Jacksonville.

Jacksonville added a pair of potentially exlposive wideouts in rookie Brian Thomas Jr and free agent Gabe Davis. The Jags selected the lightning-quick LSU product Thomas in the first round (No. 23 overall) of the 2024 draft. He could have a significant role in the offense right out of the gate in Week 1. Jacksonville signed the 25-year-old Davis to a 3-year, $39 million  contract in the offseason. The speedy Davis caught 27 touchdowns in his first four years in the NFL with Buffalo. 

The defense will be led by the returning trio of defensive ends Josh Hines-Allen – formely known as Josh Allen (66 tackles, 17.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 1 interception last season) and Trevon Walker (52 tackles, 10 sacks last season) along with linebacker Foyesade Oluokun (173 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 1 interception, 1 forced fumble) last season. Allen’s 17.5 sacks was tied for second in the NFL last season. Oluokun’s 173 tackles ranked fourth in 2023. Walker was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 draft and showed significant improvement last year after a so-so rookie year.

GAME STORYLINES: MIAMI

Since the retirement of Hall of Famer Dan Marino following the 1999 season, the Miami Dolphins have been in search of a franchise quarterback. They’ve started 23 different quarterbacks since the 2000 season. Miami selected highly-decorated Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa with the fifth overall pick in the 2020 draft. After an injury-plagued and somewhat inconsistent first 3 years in the NFL, Tua produced a phenomenal season last year.

The 26-year-old Tua Tagovailoa passed for an NFL-best 4,624 yards with 29 touchdowns to 14 interceptions while completing 69.3 percent of his passes. He also played in every game for the first time in his career. His yards, touchdowns and completion percentage were all career-highs. Miami signed the fourth-year star to a 4-year, $212.4 million contract extension last July. The deal will keep him in Miami through the 2028 season.

NFL Picks 9/8 – Jacksonville Jags @ Miami Dolphins

Tua’s top target in Miami’s explosive offense last season was All-Pro wide receiver Tyreek Hill. The 30-year-old 1st Team All-Pro Hill put together an impeccable season in 2023. Hill finished the year with 119 catches for 1,799 yards and 13 touchdowns across 16 games. He has set the single-season record for yards in a season in each of his 2 seasons with the Dolphins. Hill broke the franchise-record with 1,710 receiving yards in 2022 and then exceeded that mark last year.

Wideout Jaylen Waddle (72 catches for 1,014 yards, 4 touchdowns in 14 games last season) along with running backs Raheem Mostert (1,012 rushing yards, an NFL-high 18 rushing touchdowns in 15 games) and speedster De’Von Achane (800 rushing yards, 197 receiving yards, 11 total touchdowns in 11 games) were also standouts in Miami’s high-powered offense in 2023. The 22-year-old Achane rushed for 209 yards on 18 carries with 4 touchdowns against Denver as a rookie last season.

Miami’s 496 points ranked second in the NFL last season. They recorded a historic 70-20 win against the Denver Broncos in Week 4 on Sept. 23. The 70 points was the third most points scored in NFL history and the most since 1966.

Unfortunately, Miami’s last 2 seasons have ended with late season swoons that cost them the AFC East title and the chance to host a playoff game in the nice Florida weather. In 2022, they lost 5 of their last 6 to finish 9-8 and dropped to the No. 7 seed. This resulted in a trip to frigid Buffalo in the first round of the playoffs where they lost 34-31. 

Miami ended last season losing 3 of their last 5 games – after a 9-3 start – and relinquished the AFC East title to the Buffalo Bills on a tiebreaker. This resulted in Miami dropping from the No. 2 seed down to the No. 6 seed. Thus, Miami had to play a road game against the No. 3 seed and defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs in what ended up being the fourth-coldest game in NFL history at minus-4 degrees. The elements were way too much for the warm weather Dolphins to overcome and they lost 26-7 in a listless performance at freezing Arrowhead Stadium. We’ll see if Miami can finish the 2024 season strong and get that coveted home field advantage in the playoffs.

THE PICK: MIAMI (-3.5)

Miami returns everyone from last year’s explosive offense. I don’t think Jacksonville will be able to stop or keep up with the Dolphins in Miami…Dolphins 41, Jaguars 28!

NFL Picks 9/8 – Jacksonville Jags @ Miami Dolphins