MLB Picks 7/30 – LA Dodgers @ San Diego Padres

MLB Picks 7/30 – LA Dodgers @ San Diego Padres

The top two teams in the National League West division square off tonight as the first-place Los Angeles Dodgers (63-44) visit the second-place San Diego Padres (57-51) in the opener of a mini two-game series on MLB Network. This is the ninth meeting between the in-state, divisional rivals this season. San Diego has won five of the eight meetings, including taking two of three against the visiting Dodgers in their last matchup in May. 

The MLB season kicked off with Los Angeles and San Diego playing a two-game series in South Korea on March 20-21. It was the first MLB game to ever be played in South Korea. The Dodgers won the opener 5-2 and San Diego prevailed 15-11 in the second game. 

Los Angeles is coming off a 6-2 win at Houston on Sunday afternoon. Dodgers rookie pitcher Ryan River struck out eight and gave up one earned run over 5.2 innings in picking up his first major league win. Teoscar Hernandez, Gavin Lux and James Outman each homered for Los Angeles in the win. Los Angeles avoided a three-game sweep with the victory. 

MLB Picks 7/30 – LA Dodgers @ San Diego Padres

San Diego is coming off an 8-6 setback at Baltimore on Sunday afternoon. The loss halted a season-high seven game win streak for San Diego. Baltimore jumped out to a 6-0 lead after the third inning. San Diego pulled within 6-5 by the sixth inning and had the bases loaded with one out in the top of the ninth inning but could only score one run. Xander Bogaerts hit his fifth homer – a two-run shot in the sixth inning – of the season in the loss.

Tonight’s starters are All-Star Tyler Glasnow (8-6, 3.47 ERA, 147 K’s in 19 starts) for Los Angeles and Matt Waldron (6-9, 3.64 ERA, 103 K’s in 21 starts) for San Diego.

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: Los Angeles -138,    San Diego +118

Run Line: Los Angeles -1.5 (+126),    San Diego +1.5 (-152)

Run Total: over 7.5 (-105)    under 7.5 (-115)

GAME STORYLINES: LOS ANGELES

At 63-44, the Los Angeles Dodgers are in the midst of another excellent season. They sit atop the National League West by 6.5 games over the San Diego Padres and own the second-best record in the National League behind Philadelphia. If the Dodgers win the division, it will be their 11th division crown in the last 12 seasons. The Dodgers also have a shot at winning 100 or more games for the fifth consecutive full season. 

Even with the tremendous amount of success over the past 12 seasons, the Los Angeles Dodgers always remain aggressive every offseason. This past offseason was no different as they signed two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani to a 10-year, $700 million contract last December. It’s the richest contract in MLB history. Ohtani won his second American League MVP award last season with the Los Angeles Angels and is the favorite to win it again this year. He’s having another stellar season as he’s batting .314 with 32 homers, 76 RBI and 27 steals across 104 games. Ohtani could return to pitching next season.  

The Dodgers made two other notable offseason additions when they signed veteran slugger Teoscar Hernandez to a 1-year, $23.5 million contract and then traded for Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow. The 31-year-old Hernandez (.265, 22 HR, 69 RBI in 105 games) has hit at least 29 homers in four of his last five full seasons, and will likely surpass that mark again this year. The 30-year-old Glasnow (8-6, 3.47 ERA, 147:33 K:BB in 19 starts) won a career-high 10 games last season with Tampa Bay. Both players were named All-Stars this season and are on pace to have career-years with the Dodgers. 

MLB Picks 7/30 – LA Dodgers @ San Diego Padres

Holdovers Freddie Freeman (.288, 16 HR, 67 RBI in 104 games), Will Smith (.256, 15 HR, 56 RBI in 87 games) and Mookie Betts (.304, 10 HR, 40 RBI, 9 steals in 72 games) are having great seasons and were all named All-Stars again in 2024. Prior to this season, the trio had been carrying the Dodgers offensively for years but the magnificent play of newcomers Shohei Ohtani and Teoscar Hernandez has reduced the heavy lifting they need to do on a day-to-day basis. Betts has been out since June 16 with a fractured bone in his left wrist after being hit by a pitch at Kansas City. 

GAME STORYLINES: SAN DIEGO

Two years ago, the 89-73 San Diego Padres made it all the way to the NLCS as the No. 5 seed. They upset two 100-win teams along the way before falling to the Philadelphia Phillies in five games. It was their first NLCS appearance since 2010. They appeared to be a team on the rise when you looked at their star-studded batting lineup and strong pitching staff.

Unfortunately, San Diego was unable to duplicate the success of 2022 as they spent the majority of the 2023 season under .500. San Diego needed a late-season rally – they won 14 of their final 18 games – to finish 82-80. Poor defense, inconsistent pitching and team in-fighting doomed the 2023 Padres. 

Following the disappointing 2023 season, San Diego decided to trade superstar outfielder Juan Soto to the New York Yankees for 5 players – 4 pitchers and a catcher – in December. San Diego then traded for Chicago White Sox ace Dylan Cease in March. The moves signified that San Diego was willing to sacrifice Soto’s power in order to strengthen a subpar pitching staff. The 28-year-old Cease recorded 200+ strikeouts in each of his last 3 seasons with the White Sox. 

MLB Picks 7/30 – LA Dodgers @ San Diego Padres

Despite the changes, the 2024 season also appeared to be heading nowhere as San Diego spent the first few months of this season below .500. The Padres did acquire 2-time batting champ Luis Arraez on May 4. Arraez is a career .323 hitter in his 6 MLB seasons. The addition of Arraez didn’t really move the needle as San Diego remained inconsistent for weeks. 

But a couple of recent surges that began in late June has propelled San Diego into a good position to secure a Wild Card bid and brought them to within 6.5 games of the first place Los Angeles Dodgers. San Diego has gone from 37-40 on June 19 to 57-51 entering tonight’s game. Everything has come together at the right time for San Diego during this recent stretch of excellent play.

The newly acquired Dylan Cease has been fantastic in his debut season with the Padres. He’s 10-8 with a 3.50 ERA and an MLB-leading 168 strikeouts in 22 starts. Cease threw a no-hitter in his last start at Washington on July 25. It was the first of his career and second in Padres franchise history. Closer Robert Suarez (23 saves, 1.51 ERA, 40 K’s in 40 games) was San Diego’s lone pitcher to be selected as an All-Star. His 23 saves are tied for 4th in MLB.

At the plate, left fielder Jurickson Profar is having a career year in his 11th season. The 31-year-old star is hitting .301 with 18 homers and 67 RBI through 106 games. Profar was voted in as a starter for the All-Star game, it was his first All-Star appearance. Rookie outfielder Jackson Merrill (.284, 12 HR, 52 RBI, 11 steals in 104 games) was also selected to the All-Star team. At just 21-years-old, he’s among the youngest players to be named to the All-Star team in MLB history. 

THE PICK: PADRES (Moneyline)

The Padres have been playing very well of late and I think they’ll give an inspired effort returning home from a 7-2 road trip against the first place Dodgers. The Dodgers are also dealing with a number of injuries right now. Take the Padres on the moneyline tonight! 

MLB Picks 7/30 – LA Dodgers @ San Diego Padres