MLB Picks 7/28 – San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles

MLB Picks 7/28 – San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles

The surging San Diego Padres (57-50) wrap up a three-game series on the road against the slumping Baltimore Orioles (61-43) this afternoon at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. San Diego is going for the sweep after winning 6-4 on Friday night and 9-4 yesterday. This is the only meeting of the season between these teams. San Diego has won four in a row against Baltimore and seven of the last nine matchups overall dating back to June 2019. 

San Diego enters today’s game red-hot and will be going for their season-high eighth straight win. In yesterday’s 9-4 win, San Diego got a sensational pitching performance from starter Michael King who struck out nine and gave up two hits and 2 runs over 6.1 innings. King had a shutout going into the seventh inning. Former Oriole Manny Machado hit a three-run homer in the top of the seventh inning that gave San Diego a 7-0 lead. He starred for Baltimore from 2012-2018 before being traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the middle of the 2018 season. 

Today’s contest is the finale of a nine-game road trip for San Diego. They’ve gone 7-1 through the first eight games. The Padres dropped the opener at Cleveland and then won the rest of the games against Cleveland, Washington and Baltimore. 

MLB Picks 7/28 – San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore enters today’s game reeling as they’ve lost five of their last six games and are just 1-7 in their last eight home games. Despite the abysmal stretch of games from Baltimore over the past few weeks, they still remain atop the American League East division as the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox have also struggling. Baltimore still holds a 1 game lead over the Yankees in the division.

This afternoon’s starters are Randy Vasquez (3-5, 4.17 ERA in 14 starts) for San Diego and Albert Suarez (5-4, 3.48 ERA in 13 starts) for Baltimore. 

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: San Diego +145,   Baltimore -175

Run Line: San Diego +1.5 (-150),   Baltimore -1.5 (+125)

Run Total: over 9.5 (-105)    under 9.5 (-115)

GAME STORYLINES: SAN DIEGO

In 2022, the San Diego Padres finished 89-73 and advanced to the NLCS after upsetting two 100-win teams in the New York Mets (101-61) and Los Angeles Dodgers (111-51). It was their first trip to the NLCS since 2010. Expectations were enormous for the 2023 season after the inspiring run to the 2022 NLCS and the return of superstar Fernando Tatis Jr., who missed the entire 2022 season due to injury and an 80-game PED suspension.

Last season ended up being a huge disappointment for San Diego as they finished 82-80 and missed the playoffs. The 82 wins was puzzling when you consider the star-studded batting lineup and strong starting pitching rotation San Diego had. Poor defense, inconsistent pitching and rumored internal team dissension led to the demise of 2023 Padres. 

MLB Picks 7/28 – San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles

San Diego made two huge transactions during the offseason. They made the difficult decision to trade superstar outfielder Juan Soto to the New York Yankees in exchange for 5 players – 4 pitchers and a catcher – in December 2023. A few months later in March, San Diego acquired Chicago White Sox ace Dylan Cease in a trade for four players. The 28-year-old Cease recorded 200+ strikeouts in his last 3 seasons with the White Sox and was a durable starter making at least 32 starts in each of those 3 seasons. 

This season also appeared to be heading nowhere as San Diego sat at 37-40 in mid-June. But a 9-1 stretch that began on June 19 and their current 7-game win streak now has them in good position to secure a Wild Card bid. They’ve also pulled to within 5.5 games of the first-place Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West division. San Diego’s starting pitching has been tremendous during the current win 7-game win streak. They’ve recorded 3 shutouts and gave up 1 run in four of the seven wins. 

The newly acquired Dylan Cease has been excellent in his first season with the Padres. He’s now 10-8 with a 3.50 ERA and a 168:44 K:BB through 22 starts. Cease threw a no-hitter in his last start at Washington on July 25. It was the first no-hitter of his career and the second in San Diego’s franchise history. Cease has been phenomenal over his last 3 starts as he’s gone 3-0 with 30 strikeouts and no runs allowed. His hot streak seems to have ignited the entire Padres team. 

At the plate, San Diego has a deep lineup headlined by left fielder Jurickson Profar (.304, 18 HR, 66 RBI in 105 games), rookie phenom Jackson Merrill (.285, 12 HR, 52 RBI, 11 stolen bases in 103 games) and power-hitting third baseman Manny Machado (.262, 14 HR, 56 RBI). The 31-year-old Profar is on pace to set career-highs in batting average, homers and RBI. He was named an All-Star for the first time in his 11-year MLB career this season. The 21-year-old rookie Merrill was also named an All-Star. He’s one of the youngest players to make the All-Star game in MLB history. 

MLB Picks 7/28 – San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore series represents a homecoming for 21-year-old Padres rookie Jackson Merrill. The Baltimore native was selected in the first round – No. 27 overall – of the 2021 MLB Draft out of Severna Park High School, which is not that far from Oriole Park at Camden Yards. He participated in an All-Star game at Camden Yards as a high school senior and has returned as a major league player three years later. Merrill is 3-for-7 with 3 RBI in the first two games of the series against Baltimore. 

GAME STORYLINES: BALTIMORE

After several years of rebuilding through the draft and replenishing their weak minor league system, the Baltimore Orioles were able to put together a team that compiled a 101-61 record last season. The 101-61 finish was the second-best record in MLB. They also won the American League East division for the first time since 2014. Unfortunately, Baltimore’s season ended by getting swept by the Texas Rangers – who wound up winning the World Series – in their opening playoff series but their rebuild was almost complete. 

Baltimore’s remarkable turnaround in recent years was aided by the ascension of home-grown talent in superstar, second-year shortstop Gunnar Henderson (.284, 28 HR, 63 RBI, 14 stolen bases in 103 games), right fielder Anthony Santander (.242, 29 HR, 68 RBI in 99 games), catcher Adley Rutschman (.266, 17 HR, 61 RBI in 97 games) and third baseman Jordan Westburg (.267, 17 HR, 54 in 96 games). All four players were drafted by Baltimore and then developed in their minor league during the franchise’s lean years from 2017-2021. The 26-year-old Rutschman was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 MLB draft. All four players were also selected as All-Stars this season.

The 23-year-old superstar Gunnar Henderson is having a phenomenal second season after capturing the American League Rookie of the Year award last season. He was the first Oriole to win the award since Gregg Olson in 1989. Henderson was also the first player in franchise history to win the AL Rookie of the Year award in unanimous fashion. The 29-year-old Santander leads Baltimore in homers and RBI, and has led the team in both categories in each of the last two seasons.  

Baltimore did not stand pat after last season’s tremendous success. They made a big splash in the offseason when they acquired former Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes from Milwaukee in a trade. The 29-year-old, three-time All-Star Burnes had a magnificent 6-year career in Milwaukee where he won the 2021 Cy Young Award and collected 200+ strikeouts in each of his last 3 seasons. Burnes was expected to give Baltimore the ace they’ve lacked since Hall of Famer Mike Mussina anchored the pitching staff for most of the 1990’s.

Corbin Burnes has lived up to and exceeded expectations in his debut season with Baltimore. In his first start as an Oriole on Opening Day against the Los Angeles Angels, Burnes struck out 11 over 6 innings in an 11-3 Baltimore win. For the season, Burnes is 10-4 with a 2.45 ERA and a 121:30 K:BB through 21 starts. He was named an All-Star for the fourth straight season this year. 

THE PICK: Baltimore Orioles (ML)

I’m going against the hot team this afternoon. San Diego has the longest winning streak in MLB right now and you can get them as a pretty sizable and profitable underdog here but Baltimore has enough talent to avoid the sweep despite their struggles.  

MLB Picks 7/28 – San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles