MLB Picks 7/22 – Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves

MLB Picks 7/22 – Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves

The Cincinnati Reds (47-53) open a three-game series on the road against the Atlanta Braves (54-44) tonight at Truist Park. The teams are meeting for the first time this season. They’ll match up again for a three-game series in September at Cincinnati. Atlanta won five of six against Cincinnati last season, including sweeping a three-game set at home in April 2023. 

Cincinnati enters tonight’s game reeling after suffering a three-game sweep at Washington over the weekend. The Reds lost yesterday’s game 5-2. Reliever Justin Wilson surrendered a three-run homer to Nationals 21-year-old rookie James Wood in the bottom of the eighth inning with two outs. The homer broke a 2-2 tie and ended up being the winning margin for Washington. Cincinnati All-Star Elly De La Cruz stole his MLB-leading 48th base in the loss. 

Atlanta is coming off a 6-2 loss at home to the St. Louis Cardinals yesterday. Atlanta gave up four solo home runs in yesterday’s loss. Braves outfielder Jarred Kelenic hit his 11th homer of the season in the third inning. St. Louis took two of three games from Atlanta. Braves star second baseman Ozzie Albies suffered an injured wrist after a collision with Cardinals outfielder Michael Siani on a stolen base attempt. He’s headed to the injured list.

Tonight’s starting pitching matchup features a pair of All-Stars in Hunter Greene (6-4, 3.34 ERA, 126 K’s in 19 starts) for Cincinnati and Reynaldo Lopez (7-3, 1.88 ERA, 95 K’s in 17 starts) for Atlanta.

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: Cincinnati +125,   Atlanta -155

Run Line: Cincinnati +1.5 (-160),   Atlanta -1.5 (+135)

Run Total: over 8 (-105)   under 8 (-115)

GAME STORYLINES: CINCINNATI

Cincinnati entered the 2024 season with somewhat high expectations after going 82-80 last year with a roster comprised of relatively young and talented players. The 82 wins was a 20-game improvement over the 2022 season. But at 47-53, Cincinnati is in the midst of another mediocre regular season that may result in no playoffs. If the Reds are unable to turn things around, they’ll miss the postseason for the 10th straight time after a full season. They’ve won just 2 playoff games in the last 28 years. 

Despite spending the entire season trying to get to the .500 mark, Cincinnati has gotten a tremendous production from 22-year-old shortstop Elly De La Cruz. The second-year star is hitting .255 with 17 homers, 44 RBI and an MLB-leading 48 stolen bases through 99 games on the season. De La Cruz was named an All-Star for the first time in year two and went 1-for-2 in the game. He’s currently on a 9-game hitting streak.

MLB Picks 7/22 – Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves

Tonight’s starting pitcher Hunter Greene was Cincinnati’s other All-Star, he was added as a replacement. The 24-year-old, third-year star finished the first half of the year with a 6-4 record, a 3.43 ERA and 126 strikeouts over 110.1 innings. Greene had high expectations coming into the Reds organization after they drafted him No. 2 overall in the 2017 MLB draft out of high school. He’s now living up to the lofty expectations. Greene has allowed 2 runs or fewer in 13 of his 19 starts. 

Cincinnati is also getting very good contributions from a trio of young hitters in 26-year-old left fielder Spencer Steer (.239, 15 HR, 61 RBI, 15 steals in 98 games),  27-year-old second baseman Jonathan India (.275, 8 HR, 39 RBI in 92 games) and 26-year-old right fielder Will Benson (.188, 10 HR, 33 RBI, 11 steals in 90 games). Steer’s 61 RBI leads the team and ranks 20th in MLB. India leads the team in batting average and was the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year. 25-year-old starting pitcher Andrew Abbot (9-6, 3.19 ERA, 87 K’s through 20 starts) has also been excellent in his second season in the majors. 

GAME STORYLINES:ATLANTA

Last season, the Atlanta Braves put together another dominant regular season by winning 104 games – tied for the second most wins in franchise history – and capturing the National League East division crown for a sixth straight season. The Braves also had an MLB-leading 8 players selected to last season’s All-Star game. 

Unfortunately, the Braves dominant regular season ended in a whimper as they were eliminated in their opening playoff series by the Philadelphia Phillies 3-1 in the divisional round. Atlanta’s high-powered offense totaled just 8 runs in the 4 games against Philadelphia. It was the second straight year that Atlanta lost to the lower-seeded Phillies in the divisional round.

Atlanta’s upset loss to Philadelphia may have foreshadowed what’s happened this season as Philadelphia is now the dominant team in the National League East while Atlanta is struggling to keep up. The Phillies are currently 8.5 games ahead of the Braves in the division and will likely end the Braves streak of consecutive NL East crowns at 6. Injuries have doomed Atlanta all year from early in the season in April through yesterday’s game against St. Louis. 

The Braves season got off to an inauspicious start when ace Spencer Strider was lost for the season on April 6 due to a damaged UCL in his right elbow that required Tommy John surgery. Strider’s 2024 season ended with just 2 starts and 9 innings pitched. He was coming off a magnificent 2023 season where he was 20-5 with a 3.86 ERA and an MLB-leading 281 strikeouts. This is the second Tommy John surgery for Strider, he also had the procedure done in 2019 when he was a student-athlete at Clemson University. 

MLB Picks 7/22 – Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves

Atlanta suffered another catastrophic injury when 26-year-old superstar outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. tore his left ACL while running the bases on May 26 at Pittsburgh. The 2023 NL MVP and four-time All-Star will miss the rest of the season. Acuna tore the ACL in right knee in July 2021. Strider and Acuna were arguably Atlanta’s best two players last year and both of them will miss the majority of the 2024 season.

The injuries news went from bad to worse for Atlanta yesterday when it was announced before the game that All-Star pitcher Max Fried (7-5, 3.08 ERA, 95 K’s in 18 starts) would be placed on the 15-day injured list with left forearm neuritis. Fried won’t need surgery but there is no timetable for his return. During yesterday’s game against St. Louis, star second baseman Ozzie Albies (.258, 8 HR, 46 RBI in 90 games) suffered a left wrist fracture and will miss approximately eight weeks. So, the Braves are now down two of their best pitchers and hitters.

Despite the injuries, Atlanta still has a pretty formidable roster led by outfielder/designated hitter Marcell Ozuna. The 33-year-old veteran is having a monster season at the plate as he’s hitting .308 with 28 homers and 79 RBI through 98 games. He leads Atlanta in all three categories. Ozuna will likely surpass his career-high homer mark of 40 which he set last season with the Braves. He was named an All-Star for the third time in his career this season.

THE PICK: BRAVES (ML)

I think the Braves bounce back here as they have one of their top pitchers in All-Star Reynaldo Lopez taking the mound against a Cincinnati team that just got swept by a bad Nationals team. Take the Braves on the moneyline tonight!

MLB Picks 7/22 – Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves