MLB Picks 7/9 – LA Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies

MLB Picks 7/9 – LA Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies

The top two teams in the National League open a three-game series tonight with the Los Angeles Dodgers (55-36) visiting the Philadelphia Phillies (58-32) at Citizens Bank Park on TBS. The teams are squaring off for the first time this season, they’ll match up again next month in Los Angeles. The Dodgers went 4-2 against the Phillies last season, including sweeping a three-game series in Los Angeles. 

Los Angeles is coming off a 9-2 loss at home to the Milwaukee Brewers on Sunday afternoon. They had beaten Milwaukee seven straight times at Dodger Stadium prior to the loss. Left fielder Chris Taylor provided the Dodgers only runs of the game when he belted a two-run homer in the seventh inning. All-Star Shohei Ohtani stole a pair of bases in the loss which upped his total to 20 on the season. 

Philadelphia returns home after being shut out 6-0 in Atlanta on Sunday afternoon. They surrendered four homers to Atlanta in the loss. Philadelphia dropped two of three against Atlanta and concluded their six-game road trip with a 3-3 record. The Phillies won two of three in Chicago against the Cubs prior to the Braves series. Phillies star shortstop Trea Turner was hit in the head with a curveball from Braves reliever Pierce Johnson in the eighth inning but he remained in the game.

Tonight’s starters are Bobby Miller (1-1, 6.12 ERA) for Los Angeles and Zack Wheeler (9-4, 2.74 ERA 119 K’s) for Philadelphia.

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: Los Angeles +120,   Philadelphia -142       

Run Line:    Los Angeles +1.5 (-172),   Philadelphia -1.5 (+142)

Run Total:   over 9 (-104)    under 9 (-118)

GAME STORYLINES: LOS ANGELES

For the past decade plus, the Los Angeles Dodgers established themselves as one of the elite franchises in MLB. They’ve won the National League West division in 10 of the last 11 seasons and won the 2020 World Series. Nothing has changed in 2024 as Los Angeles enter tonight’s game with the second-best record in the National League at 55-36 and currently hold a 7.5 game lead over the San Diego Padres in the NL West. 

Last season the Los Angeles Dodgers finished 100-62 and won the NL West division by a whopping 16.5 games. Despite those tremendous accomplishments, the Dodgers season ended in a whimper as they were swept by the sixth-seeded Arizona Diamondbacks in the divisional round of the playoffs. The disappointing end to the 2023 season may have prompted the Dodgers to make a huge personnel decision in the offseason.

MLB Picks 7/9 – LA Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies

That decision was signing two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani to a 10-year, $700 million contract in December 2023. It’s the richest contract in MLB history. The 30-year-old, three-time All-Star Ohtani won his second American League MVP award last season when he hit .304 with 44 homers, 95 RBI and 20 stolen bases with the Los Angeles Angels. Adding Ohtani is a case of the rich getting richer as the Dodgers have been a championship-level team for the past decade. 

Due to a UCL injury suffered last season, Shohei Ohtani has only been used as a designated hitter this season for the Dodgers. His days a pitcher may be over. Despite being limited to strictly hitting, Ohtani continues to put up stellar numbers in year one with the Dodgers. Ohtani is batting .314 with 28 homers, 65 RBI and 20 stolen bases in 88 games. He leads the Dodgers in all 4 categories and is the first player to reach the 20-homer/20 stolen base mark this season. Ohtani was named a starter for the All-Star game on July 16.

Center fielder Teoscar Hernandez (.259, 19 HR, 60 RBI), catcher Will Smith (.271, 15 HR, 55 RBI) and first baseman Freddie Freeman (.301, 13 HR, 58 RBI) are all having great seasons for Los Angeles. The Dodgers signed the power-hitting veteran Hernandez to a one-year contract in January and he’s on pace to surpass his career-high mark for homers which is 32. Hernandez has hit at least 29 homers in four of his last five full seasons. 

Los Angeles suffered a huge setback last month when superstar Mookie Betts went down with a significant injury. He fractured the bone in his left wrist after being hit by a fastball against Kansas City on June 16. The Dodgers expect Betts to be out for 6-to-8 weeks. Betts was hitting .304 with 10 homers and 40 RBI before the injury. He was selected as a reserve for the 2024 All-Star game. It’s the eighth time Betts has made the All-Star team.

GAME STORYLINES: PHILADELPHIA

For the last two seasons, the Philadelphia Phillies have turned somewhat underwhelming regular seasons into deep postseason runs. In 2022, Philadelphia finished 87-75, captured the last wildcard spot as the sixth seed and advanced all the way to the World Series. Last season, Philadelphia secured the No. 4 seed after finishing 90-72 and advanced to the NLCS where they fell to Arizona in a hard-fought 7-game series. The 2024 season has seen the Phillies perform up to their capabilities as they enter tonight’s contest with the best record in MLB at 58-32.

A big reason for Philadelphia’s dominant regular season performance has been their outstanding pitching. The pitching has been just as good as the hitting. This wasn’t the case in previous years as Philadelphia would rely heavily on their stacked lineup to carry them to wins. This season Philadelphia’s pitching ranks first in ERA (3.26) and strikeouts (821), and second in quality starts (51) and WHIP (1.13). Three of their four starting pitchers – Ranger Suarez, Zack Wheeler, and Chistopher Sanchez – have ERA’s under 3.00.

Starting pitchers Ranger Suarez (10-3, 2.58 ERA, 106:23 K:BB in 18 starts) and Zack Wheeler (9-4, 2.74 ERA, 119:33 K:BB in 18 starts) along with relief pitchers Jeff Hoffman (1.21 ERA, 10 holds, 8 saves, 47 K’s across 37.1 innings) and Matt Strahm (1.59 ERA, 7 holds, 45 K’s across 34 innings) were all selected to participate in next week’s All-Star game. Suarez and Wheeler both rank among the top 10 in ERA. Wheeler’s 14 quality starts – 6 innings pitched and 3 earned runs or fewer – ranks second in MLB.

MLB Picks 7/9 – LA Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies

At the plate, the power-hitting duo of first baseman Bryce Harper (.303, 20 HR, 58 RBI in 76 games) and outfielder Kyle Schwarber (.250, 17 HR, 49 RBI in 79 games) lead a deep and talented Phillies lineup. Both players have been out for almost 2 weeks with injuries but are expected to return soon. Schwarber was activated to play in tonight’s game. Harper is questionable for tonight’s game. Harper was elected as a starter in next week’s All-Star game. It will be his eighth all-star appearance.

Third baseman Alec Bohm (.296, 11 HR, 70 RBI, 30 doubles in 88 games) and shortstop Trea Turner (.335, 7 HR, 23 RBI. 11 steals in 51 games) were also selected as starters for next week’s All-Star game, along with Bryce Harper. The 27-year-old Bohm is on pace to set career highs in just about every statistical category in year five. Bohm’s 70 RBI ranks second in the National League. Turner missed about 6 weeks with a left hamstring strain but has been excellent when healthy this season.

THE PICK: PHILLIES (Moneyline)

I think Philadelphia will get a boost from Kyle Schwarber (and possibly Bryce Harper) returning from injury. They are also returning home after a road trip and will have one of the best pitchers in MLB taking the mound tonight in Zack Wheeler. Take the Phillies on the moneyline

MLB Picks 7/9 – LA Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies

 

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