MLB Picks 7/2 – Cincinnati Reds @ New York Yankees

MLB Picks 7/2 – Cincinnati Reds @ New York Yankees

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The Cincinnati Reds (39-45) open a three-game series on the road against the New York Yankees (54-32) tonight at Yankee Stadium. This will be the only meeting of the season between the teams. The last time these teams matched up, New York swept a three-game set at Cincinnati in May 2023. New York has won six of seven against Cincinnati dating back to July 2017. 

Cincinnati is coming off a 2-0 loss at St. Louis on Sunday afternoon. The Reds only managed two hits against St. Louis in the loss. One of the hits belonged to second baseman Jonathan India, who extended his hitting streak to 12 games with a double in the third inning. India has hit at least one double in eight straight games. Cincinnati split the four-game series at St. Louis but they’ve lost six of their last nine games.

New York is coming off an 8-1 victory at Toronto on Sunday afternoon. Yankees superstar Aaron Judge connected on his MLB-leading 31st homer in the win. The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole pitched six innings and threw a season-high 90 pitches in picking up his first win of the season. It was Cole’s third start of the year after a right elbow injury caused him to miss the first two and a half months of the season.

Tonight’s starters are Graham Ashcraft (4-4, 5.45 ERA) for Cincinnati and rookie Luis Gill (9-3, 3.15 ERA) for New York.

GAME ODDS

Moneyline:  Cincinnati +168,    New York -200

Run Line:     Cincinnati +1.5 (-130),   New York -1.5 (+108)

Run Total:    over 8.5 (-110)       under 8.5 (-110)

GAME STORYLINES: CINCINNATI

The Cincinnati Reds franchise has been abysmal for almost 30 years now as they’ve failed to make the playoffs after a full season since 2013 and have won just 2 playoff games in the last 28 seasons. Cincinnati has not won a playoff series since 1995 when they swept the Los Angeles Dodgers in the divisional round before losing to Atlanta in the NLCS. Last season provided some hope for the future as a fairly young Cincinnati team finished 82-80, which was a 20-game improvement over the 2022 team that finished 62-100.

A big reason for last season’s 20-game improvement was the play of star shortstop Elly De La Cruz. Cincinnati called up the highly-touted 21-year-old Cruz from Triple-A Louisville in June 2023 and his arrival ignited the team as the Reds went 10-2 during his first 12 games and put together an 8-game winning streak. De La Cruz’ fantastic rookie season concluded with him hitting .235 with 13 homers, 44 RBI and 35 stolen bases in 98 games.

MLB Picks 7/2 – Cincinnati Reds @ New York Yankees

The 22-year-old De La Cruz has been excellent again in year two as he’s hitting .252 with 14 homers, 37 RBI, 55 runs scored and an MLB-leading 40 stolen bases. ESPN rated De La Cruz as their number one minor league prospect prior to his arrival with Cincinnati and he has lived up to those expectations. He’s already shown himself to be a legit five tool – hitting, power, running, fielding and throwing – player in his second season. 

During the offseason, Cincinnati inked veteran infielder Jeimer Candelario to a 3-year, $45 million contract. The 30-year-old Candelario posted career-highs in homers (22) and RBI (70) last season between the Nationals and Cubs. Candelario is having a great season with the Cubs as his 14 homers are tied for the team lead with Cruz. Candelario missed 4 straight games after suffering a hamstring injury against Pittsburgh on June 26. He returned to the lineup as a DH on Sunday at St. Louis and should be good to go tonight. 

Left fielder Spencer Steer (.241, 10 HR, 51 RBI) and second baseman Jonathan India (.278, 5 HR, 34 RBI) are also key contributors in Cincinnati’s lineup. The 26-year-old Steer drove in 16 runs in the month of June and his 51 RBI lead the team. He led the team in homers (23) and RBI (86) last season. The 27-year-old India leads the team in batting average and has been red hot of late. He’s hit a double in a franchise-record 8 straight games and is one shy of tying the MLB record set by Bo Bichette in 2019. India has also hit safely in 12 straight games. He’s batting .489 with 12 doubles, a home run, 6 RBI, 2 steals and 10 runs scored during that 12-game stretch. 

GAME STORYLINES: NEW YORK

Last year was a season to forget for the New York Yankees as they finished 82-80 which was good for fourth place in the tough American League East division. The 82-80 mark was the Yankees worst record since they finished 76-86 in 1992. The Yankees also missed the postseason for the first time since 2016. Injuries to stars like Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Nestor Cortes and Anthony Rizzo left the team short-handed and in an uphill climb for most of the season. The Yankees could never establish the dominance which has been synonymous with the franchise since the mid 1990’s.

After the disastrous 2023 season, New York made one of the biggest transactions of the offseason when they acquired 25-year-old superstar Juan Soto from the San Diego Padres in a blockbuster trade last December. New York gave up 5 players in the deal for Soto. The three-time All-Star and World Series champion Soto adds more firepower to an already potent Yankees lineup. The Yankees also added left fielder Alex Verdugo and starting pitcher Marcus Stroman.

Juan Soto has been tremendous in his first season wearing the pinstripes. He’s hitting .303 with 20 homers, 61 RBI and 71 walks across 81 games. Soto suffered a right-hand contusion while sliding into home plate in Friday’s win at Toronto. The X-rays came back negative on Soto’s hand but he was scratched from Saturday’s game at Toronto. Soto returned to the lineup for Sunday’s 8-1 win over Toronto. Sot homered and drove in 4 runs in the last 2 games he played in Toronto and should be available for tonight’s contest.

MLB Picks 7/2 – Cincinnati Reds @ New York Yankees

Superstar slugger Aaron Judge is back to his stellar level of play in 2024 after injuries to his right hamstring and right toe caused him to miss 56 games last season. The 6-time All-Star and 2022 AL MVP Judge is hitting .316 with 31 homers, 82 RBI and 71 walks. He has surpassed the 30-homer mark prior to the All-Star break for the third time in his career. Judge just completed a monstrous month of June where he hit .409 with 11 homers, 37 RBI and 25 runs scored over 25 games.

Rookie Luis Gil takes the mound tonight for the Yankees and will look to rebound from 2 consecutive poor outings. The 26-year-old Gil was one of the biggest surprises of the season after coming out of nowhere to start the year 9-1. He then got rocked by Baltimore at Yankee Stadium on June 20. Gil gave up 7 runs on 8 hits in 1.1 innings as the Yankees lost 17-5. In his next start at the New York Mets on June 26, Gil gave up 5 runs across 4.1 innings in a 12-2 Yankees loss. We’ll see tonight whether Gil can snap out of his mini slump against the Reds tonight. 

THE PICK: YANKEES (Run Line)

Despite the recent struggles of rookie Luis Gil, I expect the Yankees hitters to tee off on Cincinnati pitching tonight and put up a lot of runs. I think the Yankees to win this one easily regardless of what Gil does on the mound tonight.

MLB Picks 7/2 – Cincinnati Reds @ New York Yankees