MLB Picks 6/29 – Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves

MLB Picks 6/29 – Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The Pittsburgh Pirates (39-42) are on the road facing the Atlanta Braves (45-35) in the second of a three-game set at Truist Park this afternoon. Atlanta won the opener 6-1 last night as 40-year-old starting pitcher Charlie Morton struck out seven over 6.1 scoreless innings. Designated hitter Marcel Ozuna hit a bases-clearing double in Atlanta’s five-run third inning. The win snapped a two-game skid for the Braves. Atlanta has now won four straight home games. Yesterday’s game against Pittsburgh was the start of a nine-game homestand for Atlanta.

Pittsburgh had won two straight and 4 of 6 on the road prior to last night’s loss. Pirates left fielder Bryan Reynolds extended his hitting streak to 24 games with an eighth inning single. Third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes went 2-for-4 and drove in the Pirates only run in the top of the ninth inning. Pittsburgh took 2 of 3 against Atlanta when the teams matched up in Pittsburgh last month. 

This afternoon’s starters are rookie star Paul Skenes (4-0, 2.14 ERA, 61 K’s in 8 starts) for Pittsburgh and Max Fried (7-3, 3.00 ERA, 80 K’s in 15 starts) for Atlanta.

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: Pittsburgh +130,    Atlanta -154

Run Line:    Pittsburgh +1.5 (-164),   Atlanta -1.5 (+136)

Run Total:   over 7.5 (-106)    under 7.5 (114)

GAME STORYLINES: PITTSBURGH

The once-proud Pittsburgh Pirates franchise has spent the past 30+ years looking to recapture the dominance of the early 1990’s when superstar Barry Bonds led the Pirates to three straight NLCS appearances from 1990-1992. When Bonds departed as a free agent following the 1992 season, Pittsburgh failed to make the playoffs for 20 consecutive seasons. With the exception of a 3-year postseason run from 2012-2014, Pittsburgh has been mostly irrelevant for three decades. 

Pittsburgh’s fortunes changed dramatically last season when they landed the No. 1 overall pick in a top-heavy draft. Pittsburgh selected LSU ace Paul Skenes with the first pick. The 6-foot-6 Skenes was considered the best pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg in 2009. Skenes was also one of the most hyped prospects in the history of the MLB draft after a stellar 2023 season at LSU where he led LSU to the College World Series title and was named the Most Outstanding Player of the postseason. 

MLB Picks 6/29 – Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves

After a brief but dominant run with Triple-A Indianapolis where Skenes posted a 0.99 ERA and 45:8 KK:BB over 27.1 innings across 7 starts, he was called up to the majors on May 11. He made his highly-anticipated MLB debut the next day against the visiting Chicago Cubs. Skenes struck out 7, walked 2 and gave up 3 earned runs over 4 innings as he came away with a no-decision in the Pirates 10-9 win.

Paul Skenes has gone on to exceed the lofty expectations bestowed upon him up as he’s posted a 4-0 record with a 2.14 ERA and 61 strikeouts across 8 starts. In his last start against Tampa Bay on June 23, Skenes pitched a career-high 7 innings, struck out 8 and gave up 1 earned run in a no decision. Over his last 3 starts, Skenes has allowed just 2 earned runs and struck out 23 across 19.1 innings. Skenes will look to extend the magnificent start to his MLB career against Atlanta this afternoon. 

At the plate, Pittsburgh is led by the trio of left fielder Bryan Reynolds (.279, 13 HR, 46 RBI in 81 gms), shortstop O’Neal Cruz (.236, 11 HR, 34 RBI in 73 gms), and veteran right fielder Andrew McCutchen (.238, 11 HR, 24 RBI in 68 gms). The 29-year-old Reynolds leads the team in batting average, homers and RBI, and enters today’s game on a 24-game hit streak. It’s the longest streak for a Pirates player since 2003. Reynolds has been the Pirates most productive hitter for the last 4 seasons. The 25-year-old Cruz was excellent as a rookie two years ago when he hit 17 homers in 84 games. A fractured left ankle limited Cruz to just 9 games in 2023 but he’s bounced back and is having a very good season in 2024.

Veteran Andrew McCutchen continues to play well at the age of 37. The five-time All-Star and former NL MVP was drafted by the Pirates in the first round (No. 11 overall) of the 2005 MLB draft as an 18-year-old. He made his Pirates debut in 2009 and had 9 outstanding seasons with team before being traded to San Francisco following the 2017 season. McCutchen led the Pirates to 3 consecutive playoff appearances from 2012-2014 and was named the 2013 NL MVP. He returned to the Pirates last year after spending 6 seasons with 4 different teams. 

GAME STORYLINES: ATLANTA

The Atlanta Braves franchise has been the polar opposite of the Pittsburgh Pirates over the last three decades as they’ve won multiple World Series and are fixtures in the playoffs. In what can be considered a twist of fate for both franchises, the Pirates last NLCS appearance was a dramatic 3-2 loss at Atlanta on October 14, 1992. Both franchises have gone in opposite directions since that game was played. 

Last season, the Atlanta Braves finished with the best record in baseball at 104-58 and won the National League East for a sixth straight season Atlanta had an MLB-leading 8 players selected to last season’s All-Star game. Unfortunately, the Braves season ended with a 3-1 series loss to the Philadelphia Phillies in the divisional round for a second straight year. The big names in Atlanta’s star-studded lineup struggled against Philadelphia as the Braves totaled just 8 runs in the 4 games.

This season has been somewhat of a struggle for Atlanta as they enter today’s game at 45-35 and 8 games behind the first-place Philadelphia Phillies in the National League East. Things got off to an inauspicious start for Atlanta when ace Spencer Strider was lost for the season on April 6 due to a damaged UCL in his right elbow that required Tommy John surgery. Strider felt discomfort in that elbow after struggling in his second start of the season against Arizona on April 5. 

MLB Picks 6/29 – Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves

The 25-year-old Strider was coming off a terrific 2023 season where he went 20-5 with a 3.86 ERA and an MLB-leading 281 strikeouts. This will be Strider’s second Tommy John surgery. He also had the procedure done in 2019 when he was attending Clemson University. Strider is expected to return early in the 2025 season.

Atlanta suffered another catastrophic loss when 26-year-old superstar outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. tore the ACL in his left knee while running the bases on May 26 at Pittsburgh. The 2023 NL MVP and four-time All-Star will miss the rest of the season. Acuna tore the ACL in his right knee in July 2021. The losses of Strider and Acuna will likely end the Braves streak of NL East division titles. The last time the Braves did not win the division was 2017. 

As for healthy Atlanta players, outfielder/designated hitter Marcel Ozuna is producing MVP numbers this season. The 33-year-old, two-time All-Star Ozuna is batting .304 with 21 homers and 67 RBI through 80 games. He leads Atlanta in all three categories. Ozuna hit a career-high 40 homers with Atlanta last season. He drove in 3 runs in yesterday’s 6-1 win against Pittsburgh.

Atlanta’s starting pitching rotation has been very good without the services of Spencer Strider. The trio of veteran Chris Sale (10-3, 2.79 ERA, 118 K’s in 15 starts), Max Fried (7-3, 3.00 ERA in 15 starts) and Reynaldo Lopez (6-2, 1.70 ERA in 14 starts) are having fantastic seasons.  The 35-year-old, 7-time All-Star Sale has experienced a renaissance in his first season with Atlanta as he’s having one of the best seasons of his splendid 14-year career. Sale dealt with numerous injuries over the last 4 years that limited his appearances.

THE PICK: BRAVES (ML)

I think Max Fried will outduel the rookie phenom Paul Skenes this afternoon and the Braves hitters will get some runs when Skenes exits the game in the 6th or 7th inning. Take the Braves on the money line!

MLB Picks 6/29 – Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves